Maritimo 2-0 Vizela – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Maritimo at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Maritimo vs Vizela fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Maritimo and Vizela meet at Estádio dos Barreiros in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 28 December 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Maritimo have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L W D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Maritimo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Maritimo at Estádio dos Barreiros this season: 2W 3D 2L from 7 home games — 1.29 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Vizela (all games): 1W 6D 3L across 10 Primeira Liga outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: D D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Vizela, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vizela's away record: 1W 3D 3L from 7 road trips in Primeira Liga this season (0.86 PPG). Away from home they average 1.14 goals scored and 2.14 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
Maritimo — key trading statistics (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Vizela — key trading statistics (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Maritimo 71% and Vizela 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Maritimo 57% | Vizela 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Maritimo 1.80 xG and Vizela 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Maritimo attack 1.139 / defence 1.061 | Vizela attack 0.938 / defence 1.445. League average goals — home 1.092 / away 1.382. Vizela bring a strong defensive rating of 1.445 — this is suppressing Maritimo's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 15 Maritimo games / 14 Vizela games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Maritimo 46% | Draw 25% | Vizela 29%. Fair-value odds: Maritimo 2.17 | Draw 4.00 | Vizela 3.45. Maritimo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.80 / 1.38) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Maritimo are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Maritimo if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.17 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Maritimo 57% | Vizela 57% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Maritimo vs Vizela | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Estádio dos Barreiros • Kick-off: Tuesday 28 Dec 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Maritimo 46% | Draw 25% | Vizela 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 63% | xG Maritimo 1.80 / Vizela 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Maritimo attack 1.139 / def 1.061 | Vizela attack 0.938 / def 1.445 | league avg home 1.092 / away 1.382 • Poisson stance: Maritimo (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Maritimo xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Vizela xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Maritimo vs Vizela kick off?
Maritimo vs Vizela kicked off at 19:00 on Tuesday 28 December 2021 at Estádio dos Barreiros.
What was the final score in Maritimo vs Vizela?
Maritimo 2 - 0 Vizela.
Where is Maritimo vs Vizela being played?
The match is being played at Estádio dos Barreiros.
What competition is Maritimo vs Vizela part of?
Maritimo vs Vizela is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Maritimo vs Vizela?
Our statistical model gives Maritimo a 46% chance of winning, Vizela a 29% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Maritimo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Maritimo vs Vizela?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Maritimo and Vizela will score (BTTS).
Will Maritimo vs Vizela have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Maritimo and Vizela?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Maritimo and Vizela in?
Maritimo (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-D-W-L. Vizela (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Maritimo's attack at 1.14x the league average against Vizela's defence at 1.45x — combine the two and it projects 1.80 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Vizela's attack (0.94x) against Maritimo's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.38.
These ratings are built from 15/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Maritimo Win
46%
2.15
25%
4.00
29%
3.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Maritimo xG
Total xG
3.17
1.38
Vizela xG
2.15
46%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
3.51
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.73
Clean Sheet
25%
3.96
17%
6.03
Win to Nil
12%
8.51
5%
21.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 5.8 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 10.4 | 7.1 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.3 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.6 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Maritimo vs Vizela?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Maritimo and Vizela expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Maritimo and 1.38 for Vizela, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Maritimo vs Vizela?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Maritimo's recent record stands at 3W 5D 6L from 14 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with L-W-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Maritimo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Vizela, meanwhile, have gone 2W 7D 5L across 14 games — 0.93 PPG, with D-D-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Vizela is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Maritimo against 0.93 for Vizela. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Maritimo have managed 2W 3D 1L from 6 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — Maritimo are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Vizela's away record stands at 1W 3D 2L across 6 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Maritimo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Maritimo are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Vizela are on 1.00 scored and 1.79 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Maritimo have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games; Vizela in 64%.
Last 14 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Maritimo
Blended
Vizela
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Maritimo and Vizela in coming into this match?
Maritimo have gone 3W 5D 6L in their last 14 games (1.00 PPG), while Vizela have gone 2W 7D 5L in their last 14 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Maritimo at home or Vizela away?
Maritimo's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Maritimo at home: 1.50 PPG; Vizela away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Vizela won 3-0 on 14 Jan 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Maritimo have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Vizela — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Maritimo
1
Draws
1
Vizela
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Maritimo and Vizela?
From 4 meetings on record, Maritimo have won 2, Vizela have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Maritimo and Vizela last play each other?
They last met on 19 May 2023, when Maritimo 1-0 Vizela.
Who has won more matches between Maritimo and Vizela?
Maritimo have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Maritimo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Vizela see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Maritimo, 67% for Vizela — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Maritimo) and 67% (Vizela). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Maritimo keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Vizela in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Maritimo home games / Vizela away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Maritimo play Vizela?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Maritimo's games and 67% of Vizela's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Maritimo vs Vizela usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Maritimo's matches and 67% of Vizela's.
Do Maritimo and Vizela tend to score early?
Maritimo have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Vizela in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Maritimo cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Vizela.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Maritimo beat Vizela 2-0 at Estádio dos Barreiros, Regular Season - 16, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Maritimo 1.80 xG and Vizela 1.38 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Vizela landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Maritimo attack 1.14 / defence 1.06 against Vizela attack 0.94 / defence 1.45, drawn from 15/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Maritimo 46% | Draw 25% | Vizela 29%, with Maritimo to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Maritimo 57%, Vizela 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Maritimo's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Vizela's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Maritimo 1.00 PPG, Vizela 0.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Maritimo win broke the near-deadlock. Maritimo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Vizela (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.