Guimaraes 1-3 Arouca – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Guimaraes at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Guimaraes vs Arouca encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques plays host to Guimaraes versus Arouca in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off: Saturday 19 February 2022 at 20:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Guimaraes have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: D W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Guimaraes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Guimaraes at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Guimaraes are significantly better at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques than their overall form suggests.
Arouca (all games): 1W 2D 7L across 10 Primeira Liga outings this term — 0.50 points per game. Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Arouca, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Arouca's away record: 1W 5D 4L from 10 road trips in Primeira Liga this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Guimaraes's 1.40 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Arouca's 0.50 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Guimaraes register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Arouca in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading
Guimaraes half-time and goal-timing data (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Arouca half-time and goal-timing data (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guimaraes 64% versus Arouca 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guimaraes 59% | Arouca 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guimaraes 1.66 xG and Arouca 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guimaraes attack 1.301 / defence 1.097 | Arouca attack 0.683 / defence 1.154. League average goals — home 1.103 / away 1.366. Guimaraes carry an above-average attack strength of 1.301 — their λ of 1.66 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 22 Guimaraes games / 22 Arouca games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Guimaraes 51% | Draw 27% | Arouca 22%. Fair-value odds: Guimaraes 1.96 | Draw 3.70 | Arouca 4.55. Guimaraes hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Guimaraes at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Guimaraes if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.68 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Guimaraes 70% | Arouca 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guimaraes vs Arouca | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Feb 2022, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guimaraes 51% | Draw 27% | Arouca 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 53% | xG Guimaraes 1.66 / Arouca 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Guimaraes attack 1.301 / def 1.097 | Arouca attack 0.683 / def 1.154 | league avg home 1.103 / away 1.366 • Poisson stance: Guimaraes (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Guimaraes xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Arouca xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Guimaraes vs Arouca kick off?
Guimaraes vs Arouca kicked off at 20:30 on Saturday 19 February 2022 at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques.
What was the final score in Guimaraes vs Arouca?
Guimaraes 1 - 3 Arouca.
Where is Guimaraes vs Arouca being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques.
What competition is Guimaraes vs Arouca part of?
Guimaraes vs Arouca is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Guimaraes vs Arouca?
Our statistical model gives Guimaraes a 51% chance of winning, Arouca a 22% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Guimaraes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guimaraes vs Arouca?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Guimaraes and Arouca will score (BTTS).
Will Guimaraes vs Arouca have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Guimaraes and Arouca?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Guimaraes and Arouca in?
Guimaraes (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-W-L. Arouca (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Guimaraes's attack at 1.30x the league average against Arouca's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.66 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Arouca's attack (0.68x) against Guimaraes's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.8%), 2-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Guimaraes Win
51%
1.96
27%
3.75
22%
4.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Guimaraes xG
Total xG
2.68
1.02
Arouca xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
4.48
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
19%
5.24
Win to Nil
18%
5.45
4%
23.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 7.0 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 11.6 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.6 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Guimaraes vs Arouca?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Guimaraes and Arouca expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Guimaraes and 1.02 for Arouca, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Guimaraes vs Arouca?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Guimaraes's recent record stands at 8W 6D 8L from 22 games, a 1.36 PPG return, with D-W-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Guimaraes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Arouca, meanwhile, have gone 4W 6D 12L across 22 games — 0.82 PPG, with L-W-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Arouca is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Guimaraes by 0.54 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Arouca heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Guimaraes have managed 6W 2D 2L from 10 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.36 PPG overall — Guimaraes are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Arouca's away record stands at 1W 5D 4L across 10 trips, a 0.80 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Guimaraes come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Guimaraes are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Arouca are on 0.86 scored and 1.86 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Guimaraes have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 22 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guimaraes
Blended
Arouca
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Guimaraes and Arouca in coming into this match?
Guimaraes have gone 8W 6D 8L in their last 22 games (1.36 PPG), while Arouca have gone 4W 6D 12L in their last 22 (0.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Guimaraes at home or Arouca away?
Guimaraes's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Guimaraes at home: 2.00 PPG; Arouca away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to February 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Arouca go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Guimaraes have gone 1W 2D 3L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Arouca — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Guimaraes
3
Draws
4
Arouca
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Guimaraes and Arouca?
From 10 meetings on record, Guimaraes have won 3, Arouca have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Guimaraes and Arouca last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when Guimaraes 0-1 Arouca.
Who has won more matches between Guimaraes and Arouca?
Arouca have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Guimaraes see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Arouca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 70% for Guimaraes, 70% for Arouca — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Guimaraes and 60% for Arouca. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 10% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Arouca in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guimaraes home games / Arouca away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Guimaraes play Arouca?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Guimaraes's games and 70% of Arouca's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Guimaraes vs Arouca usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Guimaraes's matches and 60% of Arouca's.
Do Guimaraes and Arouca tend to score early?
Guimaraes have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Arouca in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Arouca cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Guimaraes.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Arouca beat Guimaraes 1-3 at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques, Regular Season - 23, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Guimaraes 1.66 xG and Arouca 1.02 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Arouca outscored their 1.02 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guimaraes attack 1.30 / defence 1.10 against Arouca attack 0.68 / defence 1.15, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Guimaraes 51% | Draw 27% | Arouca 22%, with Guimaraes to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Arouca win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guimaraes 59%, Arouca 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Guimaraes's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Arouca's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Guimaraes arrived the stronger side — 1.36 PPG against 0.82. Form was overturned, with Arouca winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Guimaraes (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Arouca (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.90 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.