GIL Vicente 1-0 Santa Clara – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates GIL Vicente at 34%, yet in-form Santa Clara provide a compelling counter-argument — this GIL Vicente vs Santa Clara fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primeira Liga encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Santa Clara travel to Estádio Cidade de Barcelos to take on GIL Vicente. The game is scheduled for Thursday 29 December 2022, 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, GIL Vicente stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for GIL Vicente, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos, GIL Vicente have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Santa Clara — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W D D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Santa Clara, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Santa Clara have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Santa Clara are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.20 vs 0.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for GIL Vicente, 1 for Santa Clara and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Feb 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
GIL Vicente in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Santa Clara in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — GIL Vicente 53% versus Santa Clara 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GIL Vicente 53% | Santa Clara 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GIL Vicente 0.89 xG and Santa Clara 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIL Vicente attack 0.769 / defence 1.028 | Santa Clara attack 0.738 / defence 0.853. League average goals — home 1.353 / away 1.135. GIL Vicente's attack strength of 0.769 is below the league average — the 0.89 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 47 GIL Vicente games / 47 Santa Clara games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: GIL Vicente 34% | Draw 33% | Santa Clara 33%. Fair-value odds: GIL Vicente 2.94 | Draw 3.03 | Santa Clara 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.75. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.75 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Santa Clara's lower xG of 0.86 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates GIL Vicente as the most likely outcome at 34% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Santa Clara (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on GIL Vicente offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.75 combined xG gives a 26% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 34% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: GIL Vicente 40% | Santa Clara 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GIL Vicente vs Santa Clara | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Estádio Cidade de Barcelos • Kick-off: Thursday 29 Dec 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GIL Vicente 34% | Draw 33% | Santa Clara 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 34% | xG GIL Vicente 0.89 / Santa Clara 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: GIL Vicente attack 0.769 / def 1.028 | Santa Clara attack 0.738 / def 0.853 | league avg home 1.353 / away 1.135 • Poisson stance: GIL Vicente (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
GIL Vicente xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Santa Clara xG
34%
BTTS
52%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does GIL Vicente vs Santa Clara kick off?
GIL Vicente vs Santa Clara kicked off at 17:00 on Thursday 29 December 2022 at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos.
What was the final score in GIL Vicente vs Santa Clara?
GIL Vicente 1 - 0 Santa Clara.
Where is GIL Vicente vs Santa Clara being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos.
What competition is GIL Vicente vs Santa Clara part of?
GIL Vicente vs Santa Clara is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win GIL Vicente vs Santa Clara?
Our statistical model gives GIL Vicente a 34% chance of winning, Santa Clara a 33% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making GIL Vicente the favourite.
Will both teams score in GIL Vicente vs Santa Clara?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both GIL Vicente and Santa Clara will score (BTTS).
Will GIL Vicente vs Santa Clara have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between GIL Vicente and Santa Clara?
Record (2 meetings): GIL Vicente 0W | Draws 1 | Santa Clara 1W.
What form are GIL Vicente and Santa Clara in?
GIL Vicente (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Santa Clara (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates GIL Vicente's attack at 0.77x the league average against Santa Clara's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 0.89 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Santa Clara's attack versus GIL Vicente's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 19.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
GIL Vicente Win
34%
2.95
33%
2.99
33%
3.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
17.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
15.4%
Home win
0 – 1
15.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
GIL Vicente xG
Total xG
1.75
0.86
Santa Clara xG
2.95
34%
Home win
2.99
33%
Draw
3.07
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.94
66%
BTTS No
1.51
Clean Sheet
42%
2.37
41%
2.43
Win to Nil
14%
6.97
13%
7.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.4 | 15.0 | 6.5 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.4 | 13.3 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for GIL Vicente vs Santa Clara?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.1%.
How many goals are GIL Vicente and Santa Clara expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for GIL Vicente and 0.86 for Santa Clara, a combined total of 1.75.
How confident is the prediction model for GIL Vicente vs Santa Clara?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
GIL Vicente come into this having played 47 games, going 15W 15D 17L for 1.28 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L. The sample for GIL Vicente is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Santa Clara sit at 1.13 PPG from 47 outings (12W 17D 18L), a run that reads L-W-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for Santa Clara is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: GIL Vicente on 1.28 PPG, Santa Clara on 1.13. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
GIL Vicente's home form reads 6W 8D 9L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.13 PPG return.
Away from home, Santa Clara have taken 0.61 points per game from 23 outings (2W 8D 13L). That's a step down from their 1.13 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Santa Clara's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, GIL Vicente come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
GIL Vicente are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Santa Clara are on 1.04 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GIL Vicente
Blended
Santa Clara
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are GIL Vicente and Santa Clara in coming into this match?
GIL Vicente have gone 15W 15D 17L in their last 47 games (1.28 PPG), while Santa Clara have gone 12W 17D 18L in their last 47 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — GIL Vicente at home or Santa Clara away?
GIL Vicente's home record (1.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — GIL Vicente at home: 1.13 PPG; Santa Clara away: 0.61 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between GIL Vicente and Santa Clara runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
GIL Vicente's record when hosting Santa Clara specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
GIL Vicente
1
Draws
5
Santa Clara
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between GIL Vicente and Santa Clara?
From 8 meetings on record, GIL Vicente have won 2, Santa Clara have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did GIL Vicente and Santa Clara last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Santa Clara 1-0 GIL Vicente.
Who has won more matches between GIL Vicente and Santa Clara?
Santa Clara have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
GIL Vicente see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Santa Clara are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — GIL Vicente 44%, Santa Clara 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (GIL Vicente) and 48% (Santa Clara).
On the defensive side: GIL Vicente keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; GIL Vicente have failed to score in 35% of games; Santa Clara in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GIL Vicente home games / Santa Clara away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when GIL Vicente play Santa Clara?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of GIL Vicente's recent matches and 48% of Santa Clara's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is GIL Vicente vs Santa Clara usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of GIL Vicente's recent games and 48% of Santa Clara's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do GIL Vicente and Santa Clara tend to score early?
GIL Vicente have had a goal before half-time in 48% of their recent matches, Santa Clara in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as GIL Vicente edge out Santa Clara 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
GIL Vicente beat Santa Clara 1-0 at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos, Regular Season - 14, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GIL Vicente 0.89 xG and Santa Clara 0.86 xG, a combined 1.75. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Santa Clara landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIL Vicente attack 0.77 / defence 1.03 against Santa Clara attack 0.74 / defence 0.85, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it GIL Vicente 34% | Draw 33% | Santa Clara 33%, with GIL Vicente to win its most likely call at 34%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 52% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIL Vicente 53%, Santa Clara 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
GIL Vicente's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Santa Clara's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — GIL Vicente 1.28 PPG, Santa Clara 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the GIL Vicente win broke the near-deadlock. GIL Vicente (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.