GIL Vicente 1-1 Maritimo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates GIL Vicente at 36% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this GIL Vicente vs Maritimo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
GIL Vicente and Maritimo meet at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 27. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 20 March 2022 at 15:30 UTC.
Current Form
GIL Vicente's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 6W 4D 0L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: W W D D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for GIL Vicente, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos, GIL Vicente have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.50 lags behind their overall 2.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos this season.
Maritimo have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Maritimo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Primeira Liga this season, Maritimo have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward GIL Vicente. A 0.70 PPG lead over Maritimo (2.20 vs 1.50) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — GIL Vicente lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 31 Oct 2021, ended 2–1 with GIL Vicente winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
GIL Vicente half-time and goal-timing data (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Maritimo half-time and goal-timing data (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — GIL Vicente 46% versus Maritimo 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GIL Vicente 46% | Maritimo 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GIL Vicente 1.33 xG and Maritimo 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIL Vicente attack 1.050 / defence 1.055 | Maritimo attack 0.901 / defence 1.259. League average goals — home 1.005 / away 1.279. Maritimo bring a strong defensive rating of 1.259 — this is suppressing GIL Vicente's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 GIL Vicente games / 26 Maritimo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: GIL Vicente 36% | Draw 33% | Maritimo 31%. Fair-value odds: GIL Vicente 2.78 | Draw 3.03 | Maritimo 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is GIL Vicente at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on GIL Vicente if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.54 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral: GIL Vicente 40% | Maritimo 60%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GIL Vicente vs Maritimo | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Estádio Cidade de Barcelos • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Mar 2022, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GIL Vicente 36% | Draw 33% | Maritimo 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 55% | xG GIL Vicente 1.33 / Maritimo 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: GIL Vicente attack 1.050 / def 1.055 | Maritimo attack 0.901 / def 1.259 | league avg home 1.005 / away 1.279 • Poisson stance: GIL Vicente (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
GIL Vicente xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Maritimo xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does GIL Vicente vs Maritimo kick off?
GIL Vicente vs Maritimo kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 20 March 2022 at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos.
What was the final score in GIL Vicente vs Maritimo?
GIL Vicente 1 - 1 Maritimo.
Where is GIL Vicente vs Maritimo being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos.
What competition is GIL Vicente vs Maritimo part of?
GIL Vicente vs Maritimo is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win GIL Vicente vs Maritimo?
Our statistical model gives GIL Vicente a 36% chance of winning, Maritimo a 31% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making GIL Vicente the favourite.
Will both teams score in GIL Vicente vs Maritimo?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both GIL Vicente and Maritimo will score (BTTS).
Will GIL Vicente vs Maritimo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between GIL Vicente and Maritimo?
Record (1 meetings): GIL Vicente 1W | Draws 0 | Maritimo 0W.
What form are GIL Vicente and Maritimo in?
GIL Vicente (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-D-W. Maritimo (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates GIL Vicente's attack at 1.05x the league average against Maritimo's defence at 1.26x — combine the two and it projects 1.33 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Maritimo's attack (0.90x) against GIL Vicente's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
GIL Vicente Win
36%
2.77
33%
3.03
31%
3.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
GIL Vicente xG
Total xG
2.54
1.22
Maritimo xG
2.77
36%
Home win
3.03
33%
Draw
3.24
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
30%
3.37
27%
3.77
Win to Nil
11%
9.32
8%
12.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 9.6 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.7 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.4 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for GIL Vicente vs Maritimo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are GIL Vicente and Maritimo expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for GIL Vicente and 1.22 for Maritimo, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for GIL Vicente vs Maritimo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
GIL Vicente's recent record stands at 12W 9D 5L from 26 games, a 1.73 PPG return, with W-W-D-D-W in the last five. The sample for GIL Vicente is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Maritimo, meanwhile, have gone 8W 8D 10L across 26 games — 1.23 PPG, with W-L-D-W-L in their last five. The sample for Maritimo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours GIL Vicente by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Maritimo heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, GIL Vicente have managed 5W 4D 4L from 13 games — 1.46 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Maritimo's away record stands at 5W 2D 6L across 13 trips, a 1.31 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
GIL Vicente are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Maritimo are on 1.15 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Defensively: GIL Vicente have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 26 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GIL Vicente
Blended
Maritimo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are GIL Vicente and Maritimo in coming into this match?
GIL Vicente have gone 12W 9D 5L in their last 26 games (1.73 PPG), while Maritimo have gone 8W 8D 10L in their last 26 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — GIL Vicente at home or Maritimo away?
GIL Vicente's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — GIL Vicente at home: 1.46 PPG; Maritimo away: 1.31 PPG.
Have GIL Vicente or Maritimo been keeping clean sheets recently?
GIL Vicente have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Maritimo in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
GIL Vicente have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, GIL Vicente have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Maritimo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
GIL Vicente
1
Draws
0
Maritimo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between GIL Vicente and Maritimo?
From 4 meetings on record, GIL Vicente have won 3, Maritimo have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did GIL Vicente and Maritimo last play each other?
They last met on 5 March 2023, when GIL Vicente 2-0 Maritimo.
Who has won more matches between GIL Vicente and Maritimo?
GIL Vicente have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
GIL Vicente are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Maritimo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — GIL Vicente 38%, Maritimo 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (GIL Vicente) and 62% (Maritimo). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 15% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: GIL Vicente keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Maritimo in 31%; GIL Vicente have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GIL Vicente home games / Maritimo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when GIL Vicente play Maritimo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of GIL Vicente's recent matches and 62% of Maritimo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is GIL Vicente vs Maritimo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of GIL Vicente's matches and 62% of Maritimo's.
Do GIL Vicente and Maritimo tend to score early?
GIL Vicente have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Maritimo in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
GIL Vicente and Maritimo share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos, Regular Season - 27, as GIL Vicente and Maritimo drew 1-1 in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GIL Vicente 1.33 xG and Maritimo 1.22 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIL Vicente attack 1.05 / defence 1.05 against Maritimo attack 0.90 / defence 1.26, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it GIL Vicente 36% | Draw 33% | Maritimo 31%, with GIL Vicente to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIL Vicente 46%, Maritimo 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
GIL Vicente's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Maritimo's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, GIL Vicente arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.23. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.