GIL Vicente 1-1 Casa Pia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates GIL Vicente at 46% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this GIL Vicente vs Casa Pia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Casa Pia make the trip to Estádio Cidade de Barcelos to face GIL Vicente in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 6. The match kicks off on Sunday 22 September 2024 at 15:30 UTC.
Current Form
GIL Vicente's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 3W 5D 2L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L W D D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. GIL Vicente have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, GIL Vicente have posted 3W 4D 3L at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Casa Pia (all games): 4W 0D 6L across 10 Primeira Liga outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Casa Pia have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Primeira Liga this season, Casa Pia have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Historically, GIL Vicente have had the better of this match-up — 3 wins from 4 meetings, with Casa Pia managing just 0 victories and 1 draws shared.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 4 previous contests averaged 1.8 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 3 Mar 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The historical record gives GIL Vicente a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 4 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading
GIL Vicente half-time and goal-timing data (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Casa Pia half-time and goal-timing data (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — GIL Vicente 49% versus Casa Pia 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GIL Vicente 49% | Casa Pia 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GIL Vicente 1.48 xG and Casa Pia 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIL Vicente attack 1.083 / defence 0.952 | Casa Pia attack 0.972 / defence 1.057. League average goals — home 1.291 / away 1.184. Data: 39 GIL Vicente games / 39 Casa Pia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: GIL Vicente 46% | Draw 26% | Casa Pia 28%. Fair-value odds: GIL Vicente 2.17 | Draw 3.85 | Casa Pia 3.57. GIL Vicente hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is GIL Vicente at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on GIL Vicente if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.57 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: GIL Vicente 40% | Casa Pia 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GIL Vicente vs Casa Pia | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Estádio Cidade de Barcelos • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Sep 2024, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GIL Vicente 46% | Draw 26% | Casa Pia 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG GIL Vicente 1.48 / Casa Pia 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: GIL Vicente attack 1.083 / def 0.952 | Casa Pia attack 0.972 / def 1.057 | league avg home 1.291 / away 1.184 • Poisson stance: GIL Vicente (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
GIL Vicente xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Casa Pia xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does GIL Vicente vs Casa Pia kick off?
GIL Vicente vs Casa Pia kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 22 September 2024 at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos.
What was the final score in GIL Vicente vs Casa Pia?
GIL Vicente 1 - 1 Casa Pia.
Where is GIL Vicente vs Casa Pia being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos.
What competition is GIL Vicente vs Casa Pia part of?
GIL Vicente vs Casa Pia is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win GIL Vicente vs Casa Pia?
Our statistical model gives GIL Vicente a 46% chance of winning, Casa Pia a 28% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making GIL Vicente the favourite.
Will both teams score in GIL Vicente vs Casa Pia?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both GIL Vicente and Casa Pia will score (BTTS).
Will GIL Vicente vs Casa Pia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between GIL Vicente and Casa Pia?
Record (4 meetings): GIL Vicente 3W | Draws 1 | Casa Pia 0W.
What form are GIL Vicente and Casa Pia in?
GIL Vicente (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-D-D-D. Casa Pia (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from GIL Vicente's attack rating (1.08) and Casa Pia's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.48 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Casa Pia's attack (0.97x) against GIL Vicente's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.7%), 0-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
GIL Vicente Win
46%
2.17
26%
3.85
28%
3.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
GIL Vicente xG
Total xG
2.57
1.09
Casa Pia xG
2.17
46%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
3.57
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
23%
4.38
Win to Nil
15%
6.50
6%
15.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 8.4 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.3 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.1 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for GIL Vicente vs Casa Pia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are GIL Vicente and Casa Pia expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for GIL Vicente and 1.09 for Casa Pia, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for GIL Vicente vs Casa Pia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 39 outings, GIL Vicente have picked up 1.08 PPG on a 10W 12D 17L record — L-W-D-D-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for GIL Vicente, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Casa Pia's form line: 12W 8D 19L from 39 games, 1.13 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-W. It's still early in the season for Casa Pia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.08 PPG for GIL Vicente against 1.13 for Casa Pia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, GIL Vicente have posted 1.53 PPG from 19 outings (7W 8D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.08 PPG overall — GIL Vicente are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Casa Pia have gone 8W 3D 8L from 19 away games — 1.42 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
GIL Vicente are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Casa Pia are on 1.08 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Last 39 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GIL Vicente
Early Season
Casa Pia
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are GIL Vicente and Casa Pia in coming into this match?
GIL Vicente have gone 10W 12D 17L in their last 39 games (1.08 PPG), while Casa Pia have gone 12W 8D 19L in their last 39 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — GIL Vicente at home or Casa Pia away?
GIL Vicente's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — GIL Vicente at home: 1.53 PPG; Casa Pia away: 1.42 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since January 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 27 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, GIL Vicente have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Casa Pia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
GIL Vicente
3
Draws
1
Casa Pia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between GIL Vicente and Casa Pia?
From 8 meetings on record, GIL Vicente have won 4, Casa Pia have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did GIL Vicente and Casa Pia last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2026, when GIL Vicente 2-1 Casa Pia.
Who has won more matches between GIL Vicente and Casa Pia?
GIL Vicente have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
GIL Vicente see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Casa Pia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — GIL Vicente 53%, Casa Pia 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (GIL Vicente) and 63% (Casa Pia).
On the defensive side: GIL Vicente keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Casa Pia in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GIL Vicente home games / Casa Pia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when GIL Vicente play Casa Pia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of GIL Vicente's recent matches and 47% of Casa Pia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is GIL Vicente vs Casa Pia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of GIL Vicente's recent games and 63% of Casa Pia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do GIL Vicente and Casa Pia tend to score early?
GIL Vicente have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Casa Pia in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
GIL Vicente and Casa Pia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos, Regular Season - 6, as GIL Vicente and Casa Pia drew 1-1 in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GIL Vicente 1.48 xG and Casa Pia 1.09 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIL Vicente attack 1.08 / defence 0.95 against Casa Pia attack 0.97 / defence 1.06, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it GIL Vicente 46% | Draw 26% | Casa Pia 28%, with GIL Vicente to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIL Vicente 49%, Casa Pia 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
GIL Vicente's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Casa Pia's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — GIL Vicente 1.08 PPG, Casa Pia 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Casa Pia (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.84 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.