Farense 0-0 Estrela – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Farense at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Farense vs Estrela fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Farense host Estrela at Estádio de São Lúis in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 15 December 2023 at 20:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Farense have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Farense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Farense's home record at Estádio de São Lúis: 3W 1D 3L from 7 Primeira Liga appearances (1.43 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 7 games (43%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Estrela — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Estrela, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Primeira Liga this season, Estrela have posted 1W 3D 3L from 7 away outings — 0.86 PPG. Away from home they average 1.14 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Farense at 1.40 PPG versus Estrela's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Trading Patterns
Farense in-play and half-time data (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Estrela in-play and half-time data (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Farense 54% versus Estrela 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Farense 62% | Estrela 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Farense 1.60 xG and Estrela 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Farense attack 0.986 / defence 1.062 | Estrela attack 0.903 / defence 1.064. League average goals — home 1.525 / away 1.274. Data: 13 Farense games / 13 Estrela games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Farense 46% | Draw 25% | Estrela 29%. Fair-value odds: Farense 2.17 | Draw 4.00 | Estrela 3.45. Farense hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Farense at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Farense offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.82 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Farense 43% | Estrela 71% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Farense vs Estrela | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Estádio de São Lúis • Kick-off: Friday 15 Dec 2023, 20:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Farense 46% | Draw 25% | Estrela 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 56% | xG Farense 1.60 / Estrela 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Farense attack 0.986 / def 1.062 | Estrela attack 0.903 / def 1.064 | league avg home 1.525 / away 1.274 • Poisson stance: Farense (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Farense xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Estrela xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Farense vs Estrela kick off?
Farense vs Estrela kicked off at 20:15 on Friday 15 December 2023 at Estádio de São Lúis.
What was the final score in Farense vs Estrela?
Farense 0 - 0 Estrela.
Where is Farense vs Estrela being played?
The match is being played at Estádio de São Lúis.
What competition is Farense vs Estrela part of?
Farense vs Estrela is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Farense vs Estrela?
Our statistical model gives Farense a 46% chance of winning, Estrela a 29% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Farense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Farense vs Estrela?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Farense and Estrela will score (BTTS).
Will Farense vs Estrela have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Farense and Estrela?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Farense and Estrela in?
Farense (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-L-D. Estrela (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Farense's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Estrela's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.60. The same calculation in reverse, Estrela's attack versus Farense's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Farense Win
46%
2.17
25%
4.05
29%
3.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Farense xG
Total xG
2.82
1.22
Estrela xG
2.17
46%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
3.43
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
29%
3.39
20%
4.95
Win to Nil
14%
7.35
6%
16.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 7.3 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 11.6 | 7.1 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.3 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Farense vs Estrela?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Farense and Estrela expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Farense and 1.22 for Estrela, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Farense vs Estrela?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 13 outings, Farense have picked up 1.31 PPG on a 5W 2D 6L record — W-W-W-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Farense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Estrela's form line: 4W 3D 6L from 13 games, 1.15 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-W. The sample for Estrela is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Farense on 1.31 PPG, Estrela on 1.15. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Farense have posted 1.67 PPG from 6 outings (3W 1D 2L).
On the road, Estrela have gone 1W 3D 2L from 6 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Farense come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Farense are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Estrela are on 1.15 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 13 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Farense
Blended
Estrela
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Farense and Estrela in coming into this match?
Farense have gone 5W 2D 6L in their last 13 games (1.31 PPG), while Estrela have gone 4W 3D 6L in their last 13 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Farense at home or Estrela away?
Farense's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Farense at home: 1.67 PPG; Estrela away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Farense go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Apr 2024, when Farense won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Farense's record when hosting Estrela specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Farense
1
Draws
0
Estrela
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Farense and Estrela?
From 4 meetings on record, Farense have won 3, Estrela have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Farense and Estrela last play each other?
They last met on 13 April 2025, when Estrela 0-1 Farense.
Who has won more matches between Farense and Estrela?
Farense have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Farense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Estrela see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Farense 50%, Estrela 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Farense) and 33% (Estrela).
On the defensive side: Farense keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Farense home games / Estrela away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Farense play Estrela?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Farense's games and 67% of Estrela's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Farense vs Estrela usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Farense's recent games and 33% of Estrela's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Farense and Estrela tend to score early?
Farense have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Estrela in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Farense's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Farense and Estrela finished level at 0-0 at Estádio de São Lúis, Regular Season - 14, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Farense 1.60 xG and Estrela 1.22 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Farense fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Estrela landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Farense attack 0.99 / defence 1.06 against Estrela attack 0.90 / defence 1.06, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Farense 46% | Draw 25% | Estrela 29%, with Farense to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Farense 62%, Estrela 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Farense's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Estrela's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Farense 1.31 PPG, Estrela 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Farense (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Estrela (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.