Farense 3-2 Estoril – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Farense at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Farense vs Estoril fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Farense host Estoril at Estádio de São Lúis in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 5 May 2024 at 15:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Farense stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Estádio de São Lúis, Farense have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Estoril have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Estoril's form when playing away from home: 1W 5D 4L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Farense at 0.80 PPG versus Estoril's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Farense, 1 for Estoril and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 30 Dec 2023, ended 0–4 with Estoril winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Farense in-play tendencies (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Estoril in-play tendencies (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Farense 58% versus Estoril 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Farense 55% | Estoril 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Farense 1.45 xG and Estoril 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Farense attack 0.817 / defence 1.111 | Estoril attack 0.969 / defence 1.230. League average goals — home 1.445 / away 1.280. Estoril bring a strong defensive rating of 1.230 — this is suppressing Farense's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 31 Farense games / 65 Estoril games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Farense 39% | Draw 25% | Estoril 36%. Fair-value odds: Farense 2.56 | Draw 4.00 | Estoril 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Farense at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Farense offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.83 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Farense 50% | Estoril 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Farense vs Estoril | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Estádio de São Lúis • Kick-off: Sunday 5 May 2024, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Farense 39% | Draw 25% | Estoril 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Farense 1.45 / Estoril 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Farense attack 0.817 / def 1.111 | Estoril attack 0.969 / def 1.230 | league avg home 1.445 / away 1.280 • Poisson stance: Farense (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Farense xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Estoril xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Farense vs Estoril kick off?
Farense vs Estoril kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 5 May 2024 at Estádio de São Lúis.
What was the final score in Farense vs Estoril?
Farense 3 - 2 Estoril.
Where is Farense vs Estoril being played?
The match is being played at Estádio de São Lúis.
What competition is Farense vs Estoril part of?
Farense vs Estoril is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Farense vs Estoril?
Our statistical model gives Farense a 39% chance of winning, Estoril a 36% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Farense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Farense vs Estoril?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Farense and Estoril will score (BTTS).
Will Farense vs Estoril have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Farense and Estoril?
Record (1 meetings): Farense 0W | Draws 0 | Estoril 1W.
What form are Farense and Estoril in?
Farense (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-L-W. Estoril (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Farense's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Estoril's defensive record (1.23x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.45. The same calculation in reverse, Estoril's attack versus Farense's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Farense Win
39%
2.56
25%
3.97
36%
2.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Farense xG
Total xG
2.83
1.38
Estoril xG
2.56
39%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
2.80
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
25%
3.97
23%
4.28
Win to Nil
10%
10.15
8%
11.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 8.1 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 11.8 | 8.1 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.6 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.2 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Farense vs Estoril?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Farense and Estoril expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Farense and 1.38 for Estoril, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Farense vs Estoril?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Farense come into this having played 31 games, going 9W 7D 15L for 1.10 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-L-W.
On the other side, Estoril sit at 1.06 PPG from 31 outings (9W 6D 16L), a run that reads W-D-L-D-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Farense on 1.10 PPG, Estoril on 1.06. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Farense's home form reads 5W 4D 6L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.27 PPG return.
Away from home, Estoril have taken 0.53 points per game from 15 outings (1W 5D 9L). That's a step down from their 1.06 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Estoril's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Farense come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Farense are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Estoril are on 1.48 scored and 1.68 conceded.
Last 31 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Farense
Current Season
Estoril
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Farense and Estoril in coming into this match?
Farense have gone 9W 7D 15L in their last 31 games (1.10 PPG), while Estoril have gone 9W 6D 16L in their last 31 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Farense at home or Estoril away?
Farense's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Farense at home: 1.27 PPG; Estoril away: 0.53 PPG.
Have Farense or Estoril been keeping clean sheets recently?
Farense have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Estoril in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Dec 2023, when Estoril won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Farense's record when hosting Estoril specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Farense
1
Draws
1
Estoril
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Farense and Estoril?
From 4 meetings on record, Farense have won 2, Estoril have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Farense and Estoril last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2025, when Estoril 2-2 Farense.
Who has won more matches between Farense and Estoril?
Farense have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Farense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Estoril are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Farense 47%, Estoril 80% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Farense) and 67% (Estoril). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 53% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Farense keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Farense have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Farense home games / Estoril away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Farense play Estoril?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Farense's games and 80% of Estoril's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Farense vs Estoril usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Farense's matches and 67% of Estoril's.
Do Farense and Estoril tend to score early?
Farense have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Estoril in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Farense edge out Estoril 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Farense beat Estoril 3-2 at Estádio de São Lúis, Regular Season - 32, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Farense 1.45 xG and Estoril 1.38 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Farense beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Farense attack 0.82 / defence 1.11 against Estoril attack 0.97 / defence 1.23, drawn from 31/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Farense 39% | Draw 25% | Estoril 36%, with Farense to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Farense 55%, Estoril 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Farense's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Estoril's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Farense 1.10 PPG, Estoril 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Farense win broke the near-deadlock. Farense (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.