Farense 5-0 Chaves – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Chaves at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Farense vs Chaves encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Farense and Chaves meet at Estádio de São Lúis in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 3. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 26 August 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Farense's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games (0.00 PPG). Last five: L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Farense have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Chaves (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Primeira Liga outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Chaves have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Chaves's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Chaves arrive in superior form — a 1.40 PPG advantage (1.40 vs 0.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Farense 1.00 xG and Chaves 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Farense attack 0.701 / defence 1.367 | Chaves attack 0.811 / defence 0.956. League average goals — home 1.493 / away 1.270. Farense's attack strength of 0.701 is below the league average — the 1.00 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 2 Farense games / 36 Chaves games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Farense 27% | Draw 27% | Chaves 46%. Fair-value odds: Farense 3.70 | Draw 3.70 | Chaves 2.17. Chaves hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Chaves at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Chaves if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.41 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Farense vs Chaves | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Estádio de São Lúis • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Aug 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Farense 27% | Draw 27% | Chaves 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Farense 1.00 / Chaves 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Farense attack 0.701 / def 1.367 | Chaves attack 0.811 / def 0.956 | league avg home 1.493 / away 1.270 • Poisson stance: Chaves (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Farense xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Chaves xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Farense vs Chaves kick off?
Farense vs Chaves kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 26 August 2023 at Estádio de São Lúis.
What was the final score in Farense vs Chaves?
Farense 5 - 0 Chaves.
Where is Farense vs Chaves being played?
The match is being played at Estádio de São Lúis.
What competition is Farense vs Chaves part of?
Farense vs Chaves is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Farense vs Chaves?
Our statistical model gives Farense a 27% chance of winning, Chaves a 46% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Chaves the favourite.
Will both teams score in Farense vs Chaves?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Farense and Chaves will score (BTTS).
Will Farense vs Chaves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Farense and Chaves?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Farense and Chaves in?
Farense (all comps): 0W-0D-2L in 2 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L. Chaves (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Farense's attack at 0.70x the league average against Chaves's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.00 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Chaves's attack (0.81x) against Farense's defence (1.37x) — and the away total comes out at 1.41.
The sample (2/36 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.0%), 0-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chaves Win
27%
3.74
27%
3.72
46%
2.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
9.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Farense xG
Total xG
2.41
1.41
Chaves xG
3.74
27%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
2.16
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
24%
4.09
37%
2.72
Win to Nil
7%
15.28
17%
5.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 12.7 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.7 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 6.3 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Farense vs Chaves?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Farense and Chaves expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Farense and 1.41 for Chaves, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Farense vs Chaves?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Farense come into this having played 2 games, going 0W 0D 2L for 0.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-L. It's still early in the season for Farense, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Chaves sit at 0.00 PPG from 2 outings (0W 0D 2L), a run that reads L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Chaves, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.00 PPG for Farense against 0.00 for Chaves. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Farense are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game recently; Chaves are on 1.00 scored and 3.00 conceded.
Last 2 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Farense
Early Season
Chaves
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Farense and Chaves in coming into this match?
Farense have gone 0W 0D 2L in their last 2 games (0.00 PPG), while Chaves have gone 0W 0D 2L in their last 2 (0.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since August 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Farense
1
Draws
0
Chaves
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Farense and Chaves?
From 2 meetings on record, Farense have won 1, Chaves have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Farense and Chaves last play each other?
They last met on 4 February 2024, when Chaves 1-1 Farense.
Who has won more matches between Farense and Chaves?
Farense have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Farense home games / Chaves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Farense play Chaves?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Farense's recent matches and 50% of Chaves's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Farense vs Chaves usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Farense's matches and 50% of Chaves's.
Do Farense and Chaves tend to score early?
Farense have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Chaves in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Farense run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Chaves.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Farense beat Chaves 5-0 at Estádio de São Lúis, Regular Season - 3, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Farense 1.00 xG and Chaves 1.41 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Farense beat their projection by 4.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Chaves landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Farense attack 0.70 / defence 1.37 against Chaves attack 0.81 / defence 0.96, drawn from 2/36 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Farense 27% | Draw 27% | Chaves 46%, with Chaves to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Farense win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Farense 100%, Chaves 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Farense 0.00 PPG, Chaves 0.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Farense win broke the near-deadlock. Farense scored 5 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.50 average — tighter than their form line. Chaves managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 3.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.