Famalicao 0-0 GIL Vicente – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Famalicao at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Famalicao vs GIL Vicente fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio Municipal de Famalicao plays host to Famalicao versus GIL Vicente in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off: Sunday 30 August 2026 at 19:30 UTC.
Current Form
Famalicao's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 2W 6D 2L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D W D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Famalicao have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Famalicao have posted 6W 2D 2L at Estadio Municipal de Famalicao — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Municipal de Famalicao. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Famalicao are significantly better at Estadio Municipal de Famalicao than their overall form suggests.
GIL Vicente have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: D L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. GIL Vicente have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Primeira Liga this season, GIL Vicente have posted 1W 5D 4L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 9 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Famalicao, 2 for GIL Vicente and 4 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Feb 2026, ended 0–5 with GIL Vicente winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Famalicao goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (36 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
GIL Vicente goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (36 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Famalicao 39% versus GIL Vicente 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Famalicao 36% | GIL Vicente 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Famalicao 1.39 xG and GIL Vicente 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Famalicao attack 0.971 / defence 0.999 | GIL Vicente attack 0.917 / defence 1.029. League average goals — home 1.394 / away 1.286. Data: 37 Famalicao games / 36 GIL Vicente games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Famalicao 42% | Draw 26% | GIL Vicente 32%. Fair-value odds: Famalicao 2.38 | Draw 3.85 | GIL Vicente 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Famalicao at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Famalicao if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.57 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Famalicao 50% | GIL Vicente 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Famalicao vs GIL Vicente | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Estadio Municipal de Famalicao • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Aug 2026, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Famalicao 42% | Draw 26% | GIL Vicente 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Famalicao 1.39 / GIL Vicente 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Famalicao attack 0.971 / def 0.999 | GIL Vicente attack 0.917 / def 1.029 | league avg home 1.394 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Famalicao (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Famalicao xG
Expected Goals
1.18
GIL Vicente xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Famalicao vs GIL Vicente kick off?
Famalicao vs GIL Vicente kicked off at 19:30 on Sunday 30 August 2026 at Estadio Municipal de Famalicao.
What was the final score in Famalicao vs GIL Vicente?
Famalicao 0 - 0 GIL Vicente.
Where is Famalicao vs GIL Vicente being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Municipal de Famalicao.
What competition is Famalicao vs GIL Vicente part of?
Famalicao vs GIL Vicente is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Famalicao vs GIL Vicente?
Our statistical model gives Famalicao a 42% chance of winning, GIL Vicente a 32% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Famalicao the favourite.
Will both teams score in Famalicao vs GIL Vicente?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Famalicao and GIL Vicente will score (BTTS).
Will Famalicao vs GIL Vicente have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Famalicao and GIL Vicente?
Record (9 meetings): Famalicao 3W | Draws 4 | GIL Vicente 2W.
What form are Famalicao and GIL Vicente in?
Famalicao (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-D-L-L. GIL Vicente (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Famalicao's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against GIL Vicente's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.39. Flip it around — GIL Vicente's attack (0.92x) against Famalicao's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 37/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.3%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Famalicao Win
42%
2.39
26%
3.79
32%
3.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Famalicao xG
Total xG
2.57
1.18
GIL Vicente xG
2.39
42%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
3.15
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
31%
3.25
25%
4.03
Win to Nil
13%
7.77
8%
12.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 9.0 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.5 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.7 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Famalicao vs GIL Vicente?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Famalicao and GIL Vicente expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Famalicao and 1.18 for GIL Vicente, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Famalicao vs GIL Vicente?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Famalicao's recent record stands at 14W 12D 10L from 36 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with D-W-D-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Famalicao, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
GIL Vicente, meanwhile, have gone 15W 11D 10L across 36 games — 1.56 PPG, with D-L-L-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for GIL Vicente, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for Famalicao against 1.56 for GIL Vicente. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Famalicao have managed 8W 4D 5L from 17 games — 1.65 PPG in front of their own supporters.
GIL Vicente's away record stands at 4W 8D 5L across 17 trips, a 1.18 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Famalicao come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Famalicao are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; GIL Vicente are on 1.39 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Defensively: Famalicao have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games; GIL Vicente in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Famalicao
Early Season
GIL Vicente
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Famalicao and GIL Vicente in coming into this match?
Famalicao have gone 14W 12D 10L in their last 36 games (1.50 PPG), while GIL Vicente have gone 15W 11D 10L in their last 36 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Famalicao at home or GIL Vicente away?
Famalicao's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Famalicao at home: 1.65 PPG; GIL Vicente away: 1.18 PPG.
Have Famalicao or GIL Vicente been keeping clean sheets recently?
Famalicao have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, GIL Vicente in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. The two were last together as recently as 30 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: GIL Vicente won 5-0 on 1 Feb 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Famalicao have gone 1W 4D 1L from 6 meetings on their own ground against GIL Vicente — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Famalicao
5
Draws
2
GIL Vicente
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Famalicao and GIL Vicente?
From 10 meetings on record, Famalicao have won 3, GIL Vicente have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Famalicao and GIL Vicente last play each other?
They last met on 30 August 2026, when Famalicao 0-0 GIL Vicente.
Who has won more matches between Famalicao and GIL Vicente?
Famalicao have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Famalicao are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
GIL Vicente are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Famalicao 41%, GIL Vicente 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Famalicao) and 53% (GIL Vicente).
On the defensive side: Famalicao keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches; GIL Vicente in 35%; GIL Vicente in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Famalicao home games / GIL Vicente away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Famalicao play GIL Vicente?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Famalicao's recent matches and 47% of GIL Vicente's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Famalicao vs GIL Vicente usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Famalicao's recent games and 53% of GIL Vicente's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Famalicao and GIL Vicente tend to score early?
Famalicao have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, GIL Vicente in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Famalicao's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Famalicao and GIL Vicente finished level at 0-0 at Estadio Municipal de Famalicao, Regular Season - 4, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Famalicao 1.39 xG and GIL Vicente 1.18 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Famalicao fell 1.4 short of their projected output. GIL Vicente landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Famalicao attack 0.97 / defence 1.00 against GIL Vicente attack 0.92 / defence 1.03, drawn from 37/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Famalicao 42% | Draw 26% | GIL Vicente 32%, with Famalicao to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Famalicao 36%, GIL Vicente 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Famalicao's trading profile (36 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
GIL Vicente's trading profile (36 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Famalicao 1.50 PPG, GIL Vicente 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Famalicao (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.82 average — tighter than their form line. GIL Vicente (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.