Estrela 2-3 Benfica – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Benfica (39%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Estrela face Benfica.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Estrela host Benfica at Estádio José Gomes in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 2 February 2025 at 20:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Estrela stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Estrela, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Estrela's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Estádio José Gomes this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Benfica — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Benfica, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Benfica's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Benfica are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The previous 3 encounters between these sides heavily favour Benfica, who boast 3 victories compared to 0 for Estrela.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Aug 2024, ended 0–1 with Benfica winning.
It is worth noting that Benfica have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 3 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Profile
Estrela in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Benfica in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estrela 47% versus Benfica 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Estrela 45% | Benfica 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estrela 1.25 xG and Benfica 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estrela attack 0.950 / defence 1.137 | Benfica attack 1.048 / defence 0.928. League average goals — home 1.412 / away 1.155. Data: 53 Estrela games / 53 Benfica games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Estrela 33% | Draw 27% | Benfica 39%. Fair-value odds: Estrela 3.03 | Draw 3.70 | Benfica 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Benfica as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Benfica offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.62 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Estrela 50% | Benfica 50%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estrela vs Benfica | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Estádio José Gomes • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Feb 2025, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estrela 33% | Draw 27% | Benfica 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Estrela 1.25 / Benfica 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Estrela attack 0.950 / def 1.137 | Benfica attack 1.048 / def 0.928 | league avg home 1.412 / away 1.155 • Poisson stance: Benfica (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Estrela xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Benfica xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Estrela vs Benfica kick off?
Estrela vs Benfica kicked off at 20:30 on Sunday 2 February 2025 at Estádio José Gomes.
What was the final score in Estrela vs Benfica?
Estrela 2 - 3 Benfica.
Where is Estrela vs Benfica being played?
The match is being played at Estádio José Gomes.
What competition is Estrela vs Benfica part of?
Estrela vs Benfica is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Estrela vs Benfica?
Our statistical model gives Estrela a 33% chance of winning, Benfica a 39% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Benfica the favourite.
Will both teams score in Estrela vs Benfica?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Estrela and Benfica will score (BTTS).
Will Estrela vs Benfica have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Estrela and Benfica?
Record (3 meetings): Estrela 0W | Draws 0 | Benfica 3W.
What form are Estrela and Benfica in?
Estrela (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-L-D. Benfica (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Estrela's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Benfica's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.25. The same calculation in reverse, Benfica's attack versus Estrela's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.9%), 1-2 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Benfica Win
33%
3.00
27%
3.68
39%
2.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Estrela xG
Total xG
2.62
1.38
Benfica xG
3.00
33%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
2.53
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
25%
3.96
29%
3.47
Win to Nil
8%
11.89
11%
8.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 10.0 | 6.9 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.5 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.8 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Estrela vs Benfica?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Estrela and Benfica expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Estrela and 1.38 for Benfica, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Estrela vs Benfica?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Estrela's recent record stands at 11W 17D 25L from 53 games, a 0.94 PPG return, with W-D-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Estrela is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Benfica, meanwhile, have gone 38W 7D 8L across 53 games — 2.28 PPG, with W-L-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Benfica is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Benfica by 1.34 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Estrela heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Estrela have managed 10W 5D 11L from 26 games — 1.35 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.94 PPG overall — Estrela are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Benfica's away record stands at 14W 5D 7L across 26 trips, a 1.81 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 2.28 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Benfica's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Benfica come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Estrela are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Benfica are on 2.26 scored and 0.79 conceded.
Defensively: Benfica in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estrela
Blended
Benfica
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Estrela and Benfica in coming into this match?
Estrela have gone 11W 17D 25L in their last 53 games (0.94 PPG), while Benfica have gone 38W 7D 8L in their last 53 (2.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Estrela at home or Benfica away?
Benfica's away record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Estrela at home: 1.35 PPG; Benfica away: 1.81 PPG.
Have Estrela or Benfica been keeping clean sheets recently?
Estrela have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Benfica in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Estrela and Benfica runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 25 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Benfica go into this on the back of 6 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Jan 2026, when Benfica won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Estrela's record when hosting Benfica specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Estrela
0
Draws
6
Benfica
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Estrela and Benfica?
From 6 meetings on record, Estrela have won 0, Benfica have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Estrela and Benfica last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2026, when Benfica 4-0 Estrela.
Who has won more matches between Estrela and Benfica?
Benfica have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Estrela are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Benfica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Estrela 58%, Benfica 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Estrela) and 50% (Benfica). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Benfica in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estrela home games / Benfica away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Estrela play Benfica?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Estrela's recent matches and 50% of Benfica's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Estrela vs Benfica usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Estrela's matches and 50% of Benfica's.
Do Estrela and Benfica tend to score early?
Estrela have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Benfica in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Benfica edge out Estrela 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Benfica beat Estrela 2-3 at Estádio José Gomes, Regular Season - 20, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Estrela 1.25 xG and Benfica 1.38 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Benfica outscored their 1.38 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estrela attack 0.95 / defence 1.14 against Benfica attack 1.05 / defence 0.93, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Estrela 33% | Draw 27% | Benfica 39%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estrela 45%, Benfica 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Estrela's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Benfica's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Benfica arrived the stronger side — 2.28 PPG against 0.94. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Estrela (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.58 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Benfica (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.58 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.