Estoril 2-2 Tondela – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Estoril (73%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Estoril face Tondela.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Tondela make the trip to Estádio António Coimbra da Mota to face Estoril in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Saturday 7 February 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Estoril's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Estoril, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Estoril's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Tondela have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Tondela, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Tondela have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form ledger tips toward Estoril. A 1.20 PPG lead over Tondela (1.90 vs 0.70) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Estoril 2W, Tondela 0W, 1D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Aug 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Estoril — key trading statistics (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 65%.
Tondela — key trading statistics (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); they fail to score in 65% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estoril 60% versus Tondela 30%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Estoril 65% | Tondela 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estoril 2.54 xG and Tondela 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estoril attack 1.351 / defence 1.128 | Tondela attack 0.631 / defence 1.216. League average goals — home 1.547 / away 1.246. Estoril carry an above-average attack strength of 1.351 — their λ of 2.54 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Tondela bring a strong defensive rating of 1.216 — this is suppressing Estoril's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 54 Estoril games / 20 Tondela games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Estoril 73% | Draw 16% | Tondela 11%. Fair-value odds: Estoril 1.37 | Draw 6.25 | Tondela 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Estoril (73%) — a 62pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.43. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.43 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Estoril are the pick at 73% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.43 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 67% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Estoril 70% | Tondela 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estoril vs Tondela | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Estádio António Coimbra da Mota • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Feb 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estoril 73% | Draw 16% | Tondela 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 54% | xG Estoril 2.54 / Tondela 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Estoril attack 1.351 / def 1.128 | Tondela attack 0.631 / def 1.216 | league avg home 1.547 / away 1.246 • Poisson stance: Estoril (73%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.54
Estoril xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Tondela xG
54%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Estoril vs Tondela kick off?
Estoril vs Tondela kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 7 February 2026 at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota.
What was the final score in Estoril vs Tondela?
Estoril 2 - 2 Tondela.
Where is Estoril vs Tondela being played?
The match is being played at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota.
What competition is Estoril vs Tondela part of?
Estoril vs Tondela is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Estoril vs Tondela?
Our statistical model gives Estoril a 73% chance of winning, Tondela a 11% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making Estoril the favourite.
Will both teams score in Estoril vs Tondela?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Estoril and Tondela will score (BTTS).
Will Estoril vs Tondela have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Estoril and Tondela?
Record (3 meetings): Estoril 2W | Draws 1 | Tondela 0W.
What form are Estoril and Tondela in?
Estoril (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Tondela (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Estoril's attacking strength (1.35x league average) is weighed against Tondela's defensive record (1.22x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.54. Flip it around — Tondela's attack (0.63x) against Estoril's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from 54/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 10.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 3-0 (8.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Estoril Win
73%
1.37
16%
6.30
11%
9.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
3 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.54
Estoril xG
Total xG
3.43
0.89
Tondela xG
1.37
73%
Home win
6.30
16%
Draw
9.14
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
8%
12.71
Win to Nil
30%
3.32
1%
116.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.2 | 7.3 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.3 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 8.9 | 7.9 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 5.6 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Estoril vs Tondela?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Estoril and Tondela expected to score?
The model projects 2.54 expected goals for Estoril and 0.89 for Tondela, a combined total of 3.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Estoril vs Tondela?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 73%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Estoril come into this having played 20 games, going 8W 5D 7L for 1.45 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-W. The sample for Estoril is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Tondela sit at 0.65 PPG from 20 outings (3W 4D 13L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Tondela is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Estoril carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.80 PPG clear of Tondela — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Estoril's home form reads 5W 3D 2L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.80 PPG return.
Away from home, Tondela have taken 0.70 points per game from 10 outings (2W 1D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Estoril come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Estoril are averaging 2.05 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Tondela are on 0.60 scored and 1.65 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Estoril have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Tondela in 30%.
Last 20 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estoril
Blended
Tondela
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Estoril and Tondela in coming into this match?
Estoril have gone 8W 5D 7L in their last 20 games (1.45 PPG), while Tondela have gone 3W 4D 13L in their last 20 (0.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Estoril at home or Tondela away?
Estoril's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Estoril at home: 1.80 PPG; Tondela away: 0.70 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Estoril have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Tondela — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Estoril
2
Draws
0
Tondela
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Estoril and Tondela?
From 4 meetings on record, Estoril have won 2, Tondela have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Estoril and Tondela last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Estoril 2-2 Tondela.
Who has won more matches between Estoril and Tondela?
Estoril have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Estoril are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Tondela are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Estoril 70%, Tondela 30% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Estoril and 70% for Tondela. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Tondela in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estoril home games / Tondela away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Estoril play Tondela?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 70% of Estoril's recent matches and 30% of Tondela's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Estoril vs Tondela usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Estoril's matches and 70% of Tondela's.
Do Estoril and Tondela tend to score early?
Estoril have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Tondela in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Estoril and Tondela share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota, Regular Season - 21, as Estoril and Tondela drew 2-2 in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Estoril 2.54 xG and Tondela 0.89 xG, a combined 3.43. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Tondela outscored their 0.89 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estoril attack 1.35 / defence 1.13 against Tondela attack 0.63 / defence 1.22, drawn from 54/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Estoril 73% | Draw 16% | Tondela 11%, with Estoril to win its most likely call at 73%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estoril 65%, Tondela 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Estoril's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Tondela's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Estoril arrived the stronger side — 1.45 PPG against 0.65. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Tondela (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.60 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.