Estoril 0-0 SC Braga – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SC Braga at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Estoril vs SC Braga encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primeira Liga clash, Regular Season - 30 as Estoril welcome SC Braga to Estádio António Coimbra da Mota. Kick-off is set for Monday 18 April 2022 at 20:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Estoril stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters this season, Estoril have posted 2W 4D 4L at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, SC Braga have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
SC Braga's form when playing away from home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form points away from home here. SC Braga's 2.00 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Estoril's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Estoril, 1 for SC Braga and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Dec 2021, ended 0–2 with SC Braga winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Estoril trading profile (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
SC Braga trading profile (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estoril 52% versus SC Braga 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Estoril 45% | SC Braga 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estoril 0.99 xG and SC Braga 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estoril attack 0.921 / defence 1.289 | SC Braga attack 0.991 / defence 0.990. League average goals — home 1.082 / away 1.203. Data: 29 Estoril games / 29 SC Braga games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Estoril 24% | Draw 27% | SC Braga 49%. Fair-value odds: Estoril 4.17 | Draw 3.70 | SC Braga 2.04. SC Braga hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, SC Braga are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SC Braga offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.52 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Estoril 70% | SC Braga 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estoril vs SC Braga | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Estádio António Coimbra da Mota • Kick-off: Monday 18 Apr 2022, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estoril 24% | Draw 27% | SC Braga 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 50% | xG Estoril 0.99 / SC Braga 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: Estoril attack 0.921 / def 1.289 | SC Braga attack 0.991 / def 0.990 | league avg home 1.082 / away 1.203 • Poisson stance: SC Braga (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Estoril xG
Expected Goals
1.53
SC Braga xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Estoril vs SC Braga kick off?
Estoril vs SC Braga kicked off at 20:30 on Monday 18 April 2022 at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota.
What was the final score in Estoril vs SC Braga?
Estoril 0 - 0 SC Braga.
Where is Estoril vs SC Braga being played?
The match is being played at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota.
What competition is Estoril vs SC Braga part of?
Estoril vs SC Braga is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Estoril vs SC Braga?
Our statistical model gives Estoril a 24% chance of winning, SC Braga a 49% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making SC Braga the favourite.
Will both teams score in Estoril vs SC Braga?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Estoril and SC Braga will score (BTTS).
Will Estoril vs SC Braga have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Estoril and SC Braga?
Record (1 meetings): Estoril 0W | Draws 0 | SC Braga 1W.
What form are Estoril and SC Braga in?
Estoril (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. SC Braga (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Estoril's attack rating (0.92) and SC Braga's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 0.99 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, SC Braga's attack versus Estoril's defence, projects 1.53 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.7%), 0-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Braga Win
24%
4.24
27%
3.69
49%
2.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
0 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Estoril xG
Total xG
2.52
1.53
SC Braga xG
4.24
24%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
2.03
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
22%
4.64
37%
2.68
Win to Nil
5%
19.68
18%
5.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 12.3 | 9.5 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 12.2 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 6.0 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Estoril vs SC Braga?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Estoril and SC Braga expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Estoril and 1.53 for SC Braga, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Estoril vs SC Braga?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Estoril's recent record stands at 8W 10D 11L from 29 games, a 1.17 PPG return, with D-W-L-L-L in the last five.
SC Braga, meanwhile, have gone 16W 7D 6L across 29 games — 1.90 PPG, with D-L-W-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours SC Braga by 0.73 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Estoril heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Estoril have managed 3W 6D 5L from 14 games — 1.07 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SC Braga's away record stands at 8W 3D 3L across 14 trips, a 1.93 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Braga come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Estoril are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; SC Braga are on 1.62 scored and 0.97 conceded.
Defensively: SC Braga in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 29 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estoril
Current Season
SC Braga
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Estoril and SC Braga in coming into this match?
Estoril have gone 8W 10D 11L in their last 29 games (1.17 PPG), while SC Braga have gone 16W 7D 6L in their last 29 (1.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Estoril at home or SC Braga away?
SC Braga's away record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Estoril at home: 1.07 PPG; SC Braga away: 1.93 PPG.
Have Estoril or SC Braga been keeping clean sheets recently?
Estoril have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, SC Braga in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Apr 2023, when SC Braga won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Estoril's record when hosting SC Braga specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Estoril
3
Draws
6
SC Braga
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Estoril and SC Braga?
From 10 meetings on record, Estoril have won 1, SC Braga have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Estoril and SC Braga last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when SC Braga 1-1 Estoril.
Who has won more matches between Estoril and SC Braga?
SC Braga have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Estoril are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
SC Braga are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Estoril 64%, SC Braga 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Estoril) and 43% (SC Braga).
On the defensive side: SC Braga in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estoril home games / SC Braga away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Estoril play SC Braga?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Estoril's games and 50% of SC Braga's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Estoril vs SC Braga usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Estoril's recent games and 43% of SC Braga's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Estoril and SC Braga tend to score early?
Estoril have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, SC Braga in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Estoril's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Estoril and SC Braga finished level at 0-0 at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota, Regular Season - 30, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Estoril 0.99 xG and SC Braga 1.53 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Estoril fell 1.0 short of their projected output. SC Braga landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estoril attack 0.92 / defence 1.29 against SC Braga attack 0.99 / defence 0.99, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Estoril 24% | Draw 27% | SC Braga 49%, with SC Braga to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estoril 45%, SC Braga 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Estoril's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
SC Braga's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, SC Braga arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 1.17. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Estoril (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line. SC Braga (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.57 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.