Estoril 1-0 GIL Vicente – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates GIL Vicente at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Estoril vs GIL Vicente encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
GIL Vicente make the trip to Estádio António Coimbra da Mota to face Estoril in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 26. The match kicks off on Friday 31 March 2023 at 20:15 UTC.
Current Form
Estoril's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 1W 0D 9L from 10 games (0.30 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Estoril, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Estoril's form when playing at home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 games at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota this term (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
GIL Vicente have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for GIL Vicente, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, GIL Vicente have gone 4W 0D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. GIL Vicente are 1.40 PPG clear of Estoril in recent Primeira Liga fixtures (1.70 vs 0.30). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Estoril 1W, GIL Vicente 0W, 2D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Oct 2022, ended 1–0 with Estoril winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Estoril half-time and goal-timing data (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
GIL Vicente half-time and goal-timing data (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estoril 45% versus GIL Vicente 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Estoril 40% | GIL Vicente 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estoril 1.04 xG and GIL Vicente 1.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estoril attack 0.754 / defence 1.419 | GIL Vicente attack 1.133 / defence 1.056. League average goals — home 1.305 / away 1.059. Estoril's attack strength of 0.754 is below the league average — the 1.04 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 59 Estoril games / 58 GIL Vicente games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Estoril 23% | Draw 24% | GIL Vicente 53%. Fair-value odds: Estoril 4.35 | Draw 4.17 | GIL Vicente 1.89. GIL Vicente hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, GIL Vicente are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on GIL Vicente if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.74 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Estoril 40% | GIL Vicente 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estoril vs GIL Vicente | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Estádio António Coimbra da Mota • Kick-off: Friday 31 Mar 2023, 20:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estoril 23% | Draw 24% | GIL Vicente 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 53% | xG Estoril 1.04 / GIL Vicente 1.70 • Poisson strength factors: Estoril attack 0.754 / def 1.419 | GIL Vicente attack 1.133 / def 1.056 | league avg home 1.305 / away 1.059 • Poisson stance: GIL Vicente (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Estoril xG
Expected Goals
1.70
GIL Vicente xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Estoril vs GIL Vicente kick off?
Estoril vs GIL Vicente kicked off at 20:15 on Friday 31 March 2023 at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota.
What was the final score in Estoril vs GIL Vicente?
Estoril 1 - 0 GIL Vicente.
Where is Estoril vs GIL Vicente being played?
The match is being played at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota.
What competition is Estoril vs GIL Vicente part of?
Estoril vs GIL Vicente is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Estoril vs GIL Vicente?
Our statistical model gives Estoril a 23% chance of winning, GIL Vicente a 53% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making GIL Vicente the favourite.
Will both teams score in Estoril vs GIL Vicente?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Estoril and GIL Vicente will score (BTTS).
Will Estoril vs GIL Vicente have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Estoril and GIL Vicente?
Record (3 meetings): Estoril 1W | Draws 2 | GIL Vicente 0W.
What form are Estoril and GIL Vicente in?
Estoril (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. GIL Vicente (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Estoril's attack rating (0.75) and GIL Vicente's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.04 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — GIL Vicente's attack (1.13x) against Estoril's defence (1.42x) — and the away total comes out at 1.70.
These ratings are built from 59/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
GIL Vicente Win
23%
4.33
24%
4.17
53%
1.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Estoril xG
Total xG
2.74
1.70
GIL Vicente xG
4.33
23%
Home win
4.17
24%
Draw
1.89
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
18%
5.48
35%
2.83
Win to Nil
4%
23.78
19%
5.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 11.0 | 9.3 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 11.4 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 5.9 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Estoril vs GIL Vicente?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Estoril and GIL Vicente expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Estoril and 1.70 for GIL Vicente, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Estoril vs GIL Vicente?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Estoril's recent record stands at 14W 16D 28L from 58 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Estoril is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
GIL Vicente, meanwhile, have gone 21W 17D 20L across 58 games — 1.38 PPG, with W-D-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for GIL Vicente is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Estoril against 1.38 for GIL Vicente. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Estoril have managed 7W 10D 12L from 29 games — 1.07 PPG in front of their own supporters.
GIL Vicente's away record stands at 11W 7D 11L across 29 trips, a 1.38 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Estoril are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; GIL Vicente are on 1.26 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 58 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estoril
Blended
GIL Vicente
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Estoril and GIL Vicente in coming into this match?
Estoril have gone 14W 16D 28L in their last 58 games (1.00 PPG), while GIL Vicente have gone 21W 17D 20L in their last 58 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Estoril at home or GIL Vicente away?
GIL Vicente's away record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Estoril at home: 1.07 PPG; GIL Vicente away: 1.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Estoril have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against GIL Vicente — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Estoril
3
Draws
3
GIL Vicente
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Estoril and GIL Vicente?
From 10 meetings on record, Estoril have won 4, GIL Vicente have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Estoril and GIL Vicente last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when Estoril 3-1 GIL Vicente.
Who has won more matches between Estoril and GIL Vicente?
Estoril have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Estoril are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 24% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
GIL Vicente are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Estoril 52%, GIL Vicente 66% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Estoril) and 62% (GIL Vicente). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 34% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Estoril have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estoril home games / GIL Vicente away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Estoril play GIL Vicente?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Estoril's games and 66% of GIL Vicente's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Estoril vs GIL Vicente usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of Estoril's matches and 62% of GIL Vicente's.
Do Estoril and GIL Vicente tend to score early?
Estoril have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, GIL Vicente in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Estoril defy the odds to beat GIL Vicente 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Estoril beat GIL Vicente 1-0 at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota, Regular Season - 26, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Estoril 1.04 xG and GIL Vicente 1.70 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. GIL Vicente landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estoril attack 0.75 / defence 1.42 against GIL Vicente attack 1.13 / defence 1.06, drawn from 59/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Estoril 23% | Draw 24% | GIL Vicente 53%, with GIL Vicente to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Estoril win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estoril 40%, GIL Vicente 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Estoril's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not.
GIL Vicente's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Estoril 1.00 PPG, GIL Vicente 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Estoril win broke the near-deadlock. Estoril (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line. GIL Vicente (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.28 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.