Estoril 2-2 Famalicao – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Estoril at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Estoril vs Famalicao fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio António Coimbra da Mota plays host to Estoril versus Famalicao in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Friday 17 December 2021 at 21:15 UTC.
Form
Estoril (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D D L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Estoril, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Estoril's form when playing at home: 1W 4D 1L across 6 games at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota this term (1.17 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Famalicao's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Famalicao, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Famalicao away from home this season: 2W 1D 4L from 7 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.71 goals scored and 2.14 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Estoril against 0.90 for Famalicao. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading & In-Play
Estoril — key trading statistics (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Famalicao — key trading statistics (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Estoril 57% and Famalicao 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Estoril 36% | Famalicao 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estoril 1.66 xG and Famalicao 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estoril attack 0.940 / defence 1.096 | Famalicao attack 1.001 / defence 1.581. League average goals — home 1.113 / away 1.339. Famalicao bring a strong defensive rating of 1.581 — this is suppressing Estoril's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 Estoril games / 14 Famalicao games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Estoril 40% | Draw 28% | Famalicao 32%. Fair-value odds: Estoril 2.50 | Draw 3.57 | Famalicao 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.66 / 1.47) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Estoril as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Estoril if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.12 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Estoril 67% | Famalicao 57% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estoril vs Famalicao | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Estádio António Coimbra da Mota • Kick-off: Friday 17 Dec 2021, 21:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estoril 40% | Draw 28% | Famalicao 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 64% | xG Estoril 1.66 / Famalicao 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Estoril attack 0.940 / def 1.096 | Famalicao attack 1.001 / def 1.581 | league avg home 1.113 / away 1.339 • Poisson stance: Estoril (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Estoril xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Famalicao xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Estoril vs Famalicao kick off?
Estoril vs Famalicao kicked off at 21:15 on Friday 17 December 2021 at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota.
What was the final score in Estoril vs Famalicao?
Estoril 2 - 2 Famalicao.
Where is Estoril vs Famalicao being played?
The match is being played at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota.
What competition is Estoril vs Famalicao part of?
Estoril vs Famalicao is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Estoril vs Famalicao?
Our statistical model gives Estoril a 40% chance of winning, Famalicao a 32% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Estoril the favourite.
Will both teams score in Estoril vs Famalicao?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Estoril and Famalicao will score (BTTS).
Will Estoril vs Famalicao have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Estoril and Famalicao?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Estoril and Famalicao in?
Estoril (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-D-L-W. Famalicao (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Estoril's attack rating (0.94) and Famalicao's defence rating (1.58), the model arrives at 1.66 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Famalicao's attack (1.00x) against Estoril's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.47.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Estoril Win
40%
2.49
28%
3.61
32%
3.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Estoril xG
Total xG
3.12
1.47
Famalicao xG
2.49
40%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
3.11
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.55
36%
BTTS No
2.80
Clean Sheet
23%
4.35
19%
5.23
Win to Nil
9%
10.84
6%
16.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 6.5 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 10.7 | 7.9 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.8 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.9 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Estoril vs Famalicao?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Estoril and Famalicao expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Estoril and 1.47 for Famalicao, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Estoril vs Famalicao?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Estoril's recent record stands at 6W 6D 2L from 14 games, a 1.71 PPG return, with D-D-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for Estoril is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Famalicao, meanwhile, have gone 2W 4D 8L across 14 games — 0.71 PPG, with D-W-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Famalicao is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Estoril by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Famalicao heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Estoril have managed 1W 4D 1L from 6 games — 1.17 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 1.71 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Famalicao's away record stands at 2W 1D 3L across 6 trips, a 1.17 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 0.71 PPG overall record — Famalicao travel well.
Attack vs Defence
Estoril are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; Famalicao are on 1.21 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Famalicao in 64%.
Last 14 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estoril
Blended
Famalicao
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Estoril and Famalicao in coming into this match?
Estoril have gone 6W 6D 2L in their last 14 games (1.71 PPG), while Famalicao have gone 2W 4D 8L in their last 14 (0.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Estoril at home or Famalicao away?
Estoril's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Estoril at home: 1.17 PPG; Famalicao away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. The two were last together as recently as 7 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Famalicao won 4-0 on 14 Dec 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Estoril have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Famalicao — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Estoril
2
Draws
5
Famalicao
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Estoril and Famalicao?
From 10 meetings on record, Estoril have won 3, Famalicao have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Estoril and Famalicao last play each other?
They last met on 7 August 2026, when Estoril 1-1 Famalicao.
Who has won more matches between Estoril and Famalicao?
Famalicao have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Estoril are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Famalicao are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Estoril, 67% for Famalicao — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Estoril and 83% for Famalicao. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Estoril have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estoril home games / Famalicao away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Estoril play Famalicao?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Estoril's games and 67% of Famalicao's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Estoril vs Famalicao usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Estoril's matches and 83% of Famalicao's.
Do Estoril and Famalicao tend to score early?
Estoril have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Famalicao in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Estoril and Famalicao share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Estoril and Famalicao finished level at 2-2 at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota, Regular Season - 15, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Estoril 1.66 xG and Famalicao 1.47 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estoril attack 0.94 / defence 1.10 against Famalicao attack 1.00 / defence 1.58, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Estoril 40% | Draw 28% | Famalicao 32%, with Estoril to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estoril 36%, Famalicao 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Estoril's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Famalicao's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Estoril arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 0.71. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Estoril (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.