Estoril 2-1 Boavista – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Estoril at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Estoril vs Boavista fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio António Coimbra da Mota plays host to Estoril versus Boavista in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Thursday 9 February 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Estoril have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Estoril, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Estoril at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Estoril are significantly better at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota than their overall form suggests.
Boavista (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Primeira Liga outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: W L D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Boavista, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Boavista away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.70 for Estoril, 1.00 for Boavista — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Estoril, 1 for Boavista and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 27 Feb 2022, ended 2–3 with Boavista winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Estoril half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Boavista half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estoril 44% versus Boavista 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Estoril 36% | Boavista 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estoril 1.35 xG and Boavista 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estoril attack 0.829 / defence 1.141 | Boavista attack 0.968 / defence 1.146. League average goals — home 1.420 / away 0.998. Data: 52 Estoril games / 52 Boavista games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Estoril 42% | Draw 27% | Boavista 31%. Fair-value odds: Estoril 2.38 | Draw 3.70 | Boavista 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Estoril at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Estoril if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.45 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates corroborate: Estoril 40% | Boavista 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estoril vs Boavista | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Estádio António Coimbra da Mota • Kick-off: Thursday 9 Feb 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estoril 42% | Draw 27% | Boavista 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Estoril 1.35 / Boavista 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Estoril attack 0.829 / def 1.141 | Boavista attack 0.968 / def 1.146 | league avg home 1.420 / away 0.998 • Poisson stance: Estoril (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Estoril xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Boavista xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Estoril vs Boavista kick off?
Estoril vs Boavista kicked off at 18:00 on Thursday 9 February 2023 at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota.
What was the final score in Estoril vs Boavista?
Estoril 2 - 1 Boavista.
Where is Estoril vs Boavista being played?
The match is being played at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota.
What competition is Estoril vs Boavista part of?
Estoril vs Boavista is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Estoril vs Boavista?
Our statistical model gives Estoril a 42% chance of winning, Boavista a 31% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Estoril the favourite.
Will both teams score in Estoril vs Boavista?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Estoril and Boavista will score (BTTS).
Will Estoril vs Boavista have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Estoril and Boavista?
Record (2 meetings): Estoril 0W | Draws 1 | Boavista 1W.
What form are Estoril and Boavista in?
Estoril (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Boavista (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Estoril's attack rating (0.83) and Boavista's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.35 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Boavista's attack (0.97x) against Estoril's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Estoril Win
42%
2.36
27%
3.70
31%
3.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Estoril xG
Total xG
2.45
1.10
Boavista xG
2.36
42%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
3.27
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.02
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
33%
3.01
26%
3.86
Win to Nil
14%
7.11
8%
12.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 9.5 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 12.8 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.6 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Estoril vs Boavista?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Estoril and Boavista expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Estoril and 1.10 for Boavista, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Estoril vs Boavista?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 52 outings, Estoril have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 14W 16D 22L record — L-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Estoril is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Boavista's form line: 14W 21D 17L from 52 games, 1.21 PPG, last five W-L-D-W-D. The sample for Boavista is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.12 PPG for Estoril against 1.21 for Boavista. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Estoril have posted 1.12 PPG from 25 outings (6W 10D 9L).
On the road, Boavista have gone 5W 8D 12L from 25 away games — 0.92 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Estoril are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Boavista are on 1.17 scored and 1.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Boavista in 63%.
Last 52 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estoril
Blended
Boavista
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Estoril and Boavista in coming into this match?
Estoril have gone 14W 16D 22L in their last 52 games (1.12 PPG), while Boavista have gone 14W 21D 17L in their last 52 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Estoril at home or Boavista away?
Estoril's home record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Estoril at home: 1.12 PPG; Boavista away: 0.92 PPG.
Have Estoril or Boavista been keeping clean sheets recently?
Estoril have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Boavista in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Estoril have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Boavista — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Estoril
2
Draws
4
Boavista
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Estoril and Boavista?
From 8 meetings on record, Estoril have won 2, Boavista have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Estoril and Boavista last play each other?
They last met on 9 February 2025, when Estoril 2-1 Boavista.
Who has won more matches between Estoril and Boavista?
Boavista have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Estoril are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 28% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Boavista are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Estoril 52%, Boavista 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Estoril) and 60% (Boavista).
On the defensive side: Estoril keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Estoril have failed to score in 28% of games; Boavista in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estoril home games / Boavista away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Estoril play Boavista?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Estoril's games and 64% of Boavista's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Estoril vs Boavista usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Estoril's recent games and 60% of Boavista's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Estoril and Boavista tend to score early?
Estoril have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Boavista in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Estoril edge out Boavista 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Estoril beat Boavista 2-1 at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota, Regular Season - 14, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Estoril 1.35 xG and Boavista 1.10 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estoril attack 0.83 / defence 1.14 against Boavista attack 0.97 / defence 1.15, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Estoril 42% | Draw 27% | Boavista 31%, with Estoril to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estoril 36%, Boavista 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Estoril's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Boavista's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Estoril 1.12 PPG, Boavista 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Estoril win broke the near-deadlock. Estoril (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.