Estoril 2-2 Belenenses – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Estoril at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Estoril vs Belenenses fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Estoril host Belenenses at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 24 April 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Estoril — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Primeira Liga outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: W L L L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Estoril's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 games at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Belenenses stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling in Primeira Liga this season, Belenenses have posted 0W 3D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.30 PPG. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Estoril at 0.90 PPG versus Belenenses's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Estoril have won 1, Belenenses 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 12 Dec 2021, ended 1–0 with Estoril winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Estoril in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Belenenses in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estoril 50% versus Belenenses 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Estoril 43% | Belenenses 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estoril 1.24 xG and Belenenses 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estoril attack 0.858 / defence 1.172 | Belenenses attack 0.557 / defence 1.356. League average goals — home 1.068 / away 1.179. Belenenses bring a strong defensive rating of 1.356 — this is suppressing Estoril's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 30 Estoril games / 30 Belenenses games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Estoril 46% | Draw 32% | Belenenses 22%. Fair-value odds: Estoril 2.17 | Draw 3.12 | Belenenses 4.55. Estoril hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.01. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.01 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Estoril at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Estoril offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.01 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates are neutral: Estoril 60% | Belenenses 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estoril vs Belenenses | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Estádio António Coimbra da Mota • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Apr 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estoril 46% | Draw 32% | Belenenses 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 40% | xG Estoril 1.24 / Belenenses 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Estoril attack 0.858 / def 1.172 | Belenenses attack 0.557 / def 1.356 | league avg home 1.068 / away 1.179 • Poisson stance: Estoril (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Estoril xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Belenenses xG
40%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Estoril vs Belenenses kick off?
Estoril vs Belenenses kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 24 April 2022 at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota.
What was the final score in Estoril vs Belenenses?
Estoril 2 - 2 Belenenses.
Where is Estoril vs Belenenses being played?
The match is being played at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota.
What competition is Estoril vs Belenenses part of?
Estoril vs Belenenses is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Estoril vs Belenenses?
Our statistical model gives Estoril a 46% chance of winning, Belenenses a 22% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Estoril the favourite.
Will both teams score in Estoril vs Belenenses?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Estoril and Belenenses will score (BTTS).
Will Estoril vs Belenenses have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Estoril and Belenenses?
Record (1 meetings): Estoril 1W | Draws 0 | Belenenses 0W.
What form are Estoril and Belenenses in?
Estoril (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-L-D. Belenenses (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Estoril's attack at 0.86x the league average against Belenenses's defence at 1.36x — combine the two and it projects 1.24 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Belenenses's attack versus Estoril's defence, projects 0.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (14.9%), 1-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Estoril Win
46%
2.17
32%
3.08
22%
4.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.4%
Draw
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Estoril xG
Total xG
2.01
0.77
Belenenses xG
2.17
46%
Home win
3.08
32%
Draw
4.65
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.52
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
46%
2.16
29%
3.47
Win to Nil
21%
4.70
6%
16.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.4 | 10.3 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.6 | 12.8 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.3 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.3 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Estoril vs Belenenses?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Estoril and Belenenses expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Estoril and 0.77 for Belenenses, a combined total of 2.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Estoril vs Belenenses?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Estoril come into this having played 30 games, going 8W 11D 11L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-D.
On the other side, Belenenses sit at 0.80 PPG from 30 outings (5W 9D 16L), a run that reads D-D-W-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Estoril on 1.17 PPG, Belenenses on 0.80. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Estoril's home form reads 3W 7D 5L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.07 PPG return.
Away from home, Belenenses have taken 0.40 points per game from 15 outings (0W 6D 9L). That's a step down from their 0.80 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Belenenses's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Estoril come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Estoril are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Belenenses are on 0.63 scored and 1.63 conceded.
Last 30 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estoril
Current Season
Belenenses
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Estoril and Belenenses in coming into this match?
Estoril have gone 8W 11D 11L in their last 30 games (1.17 PPG), while Belenenses have gone 5W 9D 16L in their last 30 (0.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Estoril at home or Belenenses away?
Estoril's home record (1.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Estoril at home: 1.07 PPG; Belenenses away: 0.40 PPG.
Have Estoril or Belenenses been keeping clean sheets recently?
Estoril have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Belenenses in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Estoril
1
Draws
0
Belenenses
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Estoril and Belenenses?
From 2 meetings on record, Estoril have won 1, Belenenses have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Estoril and Belenenses last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2022, when Estoril 2-2 Belenenses.
Who has won more matches between Estoril and Belenenses?
Estoril have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Estoril are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Belenenses are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Estoril 60%, Belenenses 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Estoril) and 20% (Belenenses).
On the defensive side: Estoril keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Estoril have failed to score in 27% of games; Belenenses in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estoril home games / Belenenses away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Estoril play Belenenses?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Estoril's recent matches and 33% of Belenenses's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Estoril vs Belenenses usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Estoril's recent games and 20% of Belenenses's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Estoril and Belenenses tend to score early?
Estoril have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Belenenses in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Estoril and Belenenses share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Estoril and Belenenses finished level at 2-2 at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota, Regular Season - 31, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Estoril 1.24 xG and Belenenses 0.77 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Belenenses outscored their 0.77 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estoril attack 0.86 / defence 1.17 against Belenenses attack 0.56 / defence 1.36, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Estoril 46% | Draw 32% | Belenenses 22%, with Estoril to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estoril 43%, Belenenses 30%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Estoril's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Belenenses's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Estoril 1.17 PPG, Belenenses 0.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Estoril (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm. Belenenses (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.40 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.