Chaves 0-0 Rio Ave – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chaves at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chaves vs Rio Ave fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primeira Liga encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees Rio Ave travel to Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira to take on Chaves. The game is scheduled for Sunday 21 January 2024, 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Chaves — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Primeira Liga outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. This season is still relatively young for Chaves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chaves's home record at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Primeira Liga appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rio Ave stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Rio Ave, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Primeira Liga this season, Rio Ave have posted 0W 4D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Chaves 0.70 PPG, Rio Ave 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Chaves, 2 for Rio Ave and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.7 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 13 Aug 2023, ended 0–2 with Rio Ave winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Chaves in-play tendencies (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Rio Ave in-play tendencies (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chaves 51% versus Rio Ave 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chaves 49% | Rio Ave 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chaves 1.57 xG and Rio Ave 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chaves attack 0.924 / defence 1.308 | Rio Ave attack 0.867 / defence 1.132. League average goals — home 1.499 / away 1.330. Data: 51 Chaves games / 51 Rio Ave games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chaves 39% | Draw 24% | Rio Ave 37%. Fair-value odds: Chaves 2.56 | Draw 4.17 | Rio Ave 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.57 / 1.51) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Chaves are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chaves offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.08 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Chaves 70% | Rio Ave 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chaves vs Rio Ave | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Jan 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chaves 39% | Draw 24% | Rio Ave 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 62% | xG Chaves 1.57 / Rio Ave 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Chaves attack 0.924 / def 1.308 | Rio Ave attack 0.867 / def 1.132 | league avg home 1.499 / away 1.330 • Poisson stance: Chaves (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Chaves xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Rio Ave xG
62%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chaves vs Rio Ave kick off?
Chaves vs Rio Ave kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 21 January 2024 at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira.
What was the final score in Chaves vs Rio Ave?
Chaves 0 - 0 Rio Ave.
Where is Chaves vs Rio Ave being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira.
What competition is Chaves vs Rio Ave part of?
Chaves vs Rio Ave is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Chaves vs Rio Ave?
Our statistical model gives Chaves a 39% chance of winning, Rio Ave a 37% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Chaves the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chaves vs Rio Ave?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Chaves and Rio Ave will score (BTTS).
Will Chaves vs Rio Ave have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chaves and Rio Ave?
Record (3 meetings): Chaves 0W | Draws 1 | Rio Ave 2W.
What form are Chaves and Rio Ave in?
Chaves (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Rio Ave (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Chaves's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Rio Ave's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.57. The same calculation in reverse, Rio Ave's attack versus Chaves's defence, projects 1.51 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Chaves Win
39%
2.55
24%
4.14
37%
2.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Chaves xG
Total xG
3.08
1.51
Rio Ave xG
2.55
39%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
2.73
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.61
Clean Sheet
22%
4.52
21%
4.80
Win to Nil
9%
11.52
8%
13.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 7.0 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 10.9 | 8.2 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.6 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.5 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chaves vs Rio Ave?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Chaves and Rio Ave expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Chaves and 1.51 for Rio Ave, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Chaves vs Rio Ave?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Chaves come into this having played 51 games, going 15W 12D 24L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-L. The sample for Chaves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Rio Ave sit at 1.08 PPG from 51 outings (13W 16D 22L), a run that reads D-D-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Rio Ave is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Chaves on 1.12 PPG, Rio Ave on 1.08. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Chaves's home form reads 8W 6D 11L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.20 PPG return.
Away from home, Rio Ave have taken 0.64 points per game from 25 outings (2W 10D 13L). That's a step down from their 1.08 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rio Ave's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chaves come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Chaves are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Rio Ave are on 1.08 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Last 51 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chaves
Blended
Rio Ave
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chaves and Rio Ave in coming into this match?
Chaves have gone 15W 12D 24L in their last 51 games (1.12 PPG), while Rio Ave have gone 13W 16D 22L in their last 51 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chaves at home or Rio Ave away?
Chaves's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chaves at home: 1.20 PPG; Rio Ave away: 0.64 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 January 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Chaves's record when hosting Rio Ave specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Chaves
2
Draws
2
Rio Ave
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chaves and Rio Ave?
From 4 meetings on record, Chaves have won 0, Rio Ave have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Chaves and Rio Ave last play each other?
They last met on 21 January 2024, when Chaves 0-0 Rio Ave.
Who has won more matches between Chaves and Rio Ave?
Rio Ave have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Chaves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Rio Ave are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chaves 64%, Rio Ave 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Chaves) and 48% (Rio Ave).
On the defensive side: Rio Ave in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chaves home games / Rio Ave away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chaves play Rio Ave?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Chaves's games and 56% of Rio Ave's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Chaves vs Rio Ave usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Chaves's recent games and 48% of Rio Ave's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chaves and Rio Ave tend to score early?
Chaves have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Rio Ave in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Chaves's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chaves and Rio Ave finished level at 0-0 at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira, Regular Season - 18, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chaves 1.57 xG and Rio Ave 1.51 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Chaves fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Rio Ave landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chaves attack 0.92 / defence 1.31 against Rio Ave attack 0.87 / defence 1.13, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chaves 39% | Draw 24% | Rio Ave 37%, with Chaves to win its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chaves 49%, Rio Ave 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chaves's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Rio Ave's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Chaves 1.12 PPG, Rio Ave 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Chaves (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.28 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line. Rio Ave (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.96 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.76 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.