Casa Pia 1-3 GIL Vicente – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Casa Pia at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Casa Pia vs GIL Vicente encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
GIL Vicente make the trip to Estádio Nacional to face Casa Pia in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 17. The match kicks off on Sunday 22 January 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Casa Pia (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Casa Pia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Casa Pia's home record at Estádio Nacional: 3W 2D 3L from 8 Primeira Liga appearances (1.38 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.62 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 8 home games (62%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Nacional. At home, both teams have scored in only 12% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
GIL Vicente have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for GIL Vicente, so this record blends games from this season and last.
GIL Vicente away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Casa Pia's 1.60 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of GIL Vicente's 0.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading Data
Casa Pia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 14% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 14% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 14% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 38% of games.
GIL Vicente goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Casa Pia 31% versus GIL Vicente 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Casa Pia 31% | GIL Vicente 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Casa Pia 1.04 xG and GIL Vicente 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Casa Pia attack 0.654 / defence 0.899 | GIL Vicente attack 0.933 / defence 1.165. League average goals — home 1.360 / away 0.977. Casa Pia's attack strength of 0.654 is below the league average — the 1.04 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 16 Casa Pia games / 50 GIL Vicente games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Casa Pia 40% | Draw 32% | GIL Vicente 28%. Fair-value odds: Casa Pia 2.50 | Draw 3.12 | GIL Vicente 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.86. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.86 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Casa Pia as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Casa Pia if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.86 combined xG gives a 28% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 36%. Form rates corroborate: Casa Pia 12% | GIL Vicente 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Casa Pia vs GIL Vicente | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Estádio Nacional • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Jan 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Casa Pia 40% | Draw 32% | GIL Vicente 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 36% | xG Casa Pia 1.04 / GIL Vicente 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Casa Pia attack 0.654 / def 0.899 | GIL Vicente attack 0.933 / def 1.165 | league avg home 1.360 / away 0.977 • Poisson stance: Casa Pia (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Casa Pia xG
Expected Goals
0.82
GIL Vicente xG
36%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Casa Pia vs GIL Vicente kick off?
Casa Pia vs GIL Vicente kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 22 January 2023 at Estádio Nacional.
What was the final score in Casa Pia vs GIL Vicente?
Casa Pia 1 - 3 GIL Vicente.
Where is Casa Pia vs GIL Vicente being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Nacional.
What competition is Casa Pia vs GIL Vicente part of?
Casa Pia vs GIL Vicente is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Casa Pia vs GIL Vicente?
Our statistical model gives Casa Pia a 40% chance of winning, GIL Vicente a 28% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Casa Pia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Casa Pia vs GIL Vicente?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Casa Pia and GIL Vicente will score (BTTS).
Will Casa Pia vs GIL Vicente have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Casa Pia and GIL Vicente?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Casa Pia and GIL Vicente in?
Casa Pia (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-D-L. GIL Vicente (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Casa Pia's attacking strength (0.65x league average) is weighed against GIL Vicente's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.04. Flip it around — GIL Vicente's attack (0.93x) against Casa Pia's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 0.82.
These ratings are built from 16/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Casa Pia Win
40%
2.51
32%
3.12
28%
3.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.6%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Casa Pia xG
Total xG
1.86
0.82
GIL Vicente xG
2.51
40%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
3.55
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.77
64%
BTTS No
1.57
Clean Sheet
44%
2.27
35%
2.82
Win to Nil
18%
5.70
10%
10.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.6 | 12.8 | 5.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.2 | 13.3 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 6.9 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Casa Pia vs GIL Vicente?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.4%.
How many goals are Casa Pia and GIL Vicente expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Casa Pia and 0.82 for GIL Vicente, a combined total of 1.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Casa Pia vs GIL Vicente?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Casa Pia's recent record stands at 8W 3D 5L from 16 games, a 1.69 PPG return, with W-L-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Casa Pia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
GIL Vicente, meanwhile, have gone 4W 3D 9L across 16 games — 0.94 PPG, with L-L-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for GIL Vicente is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Casa Pia by 0.75 — a real, if not enormous, edge over GIL Vicente heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Casa Pia have managed 3W 2D 2L from 7 games — 1.57 PPG in front of their own supporters.
GIL Vicente's away record stands at 1W 1D 5L across 7 trips, a 0.57 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Casa Pia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Casa Pia are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 0.81 conceded per game recently; GIL Vicente are on 0.88 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Defensively: Casa Pia have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 16 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Casa Pia
Blended
GIL Vicente
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Casa Pia and GIL Vicente in coming into this match?
Casa Pia have gone 8W 3D 5L in their last 16 games (1.69 PPG), while GIL Vicente have gone 4W 3D 9L in their last 16 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Casa Pia at home or GIL Vicente away?
Casa Pia's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Casa Pia at home: 1.57 PPG; GIL Vicente away: 0.57 PPG.
Have Casa Pia or GIL Vicente been keeping clean sheets recently?
Casa Pia have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, GIL Vicente in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since January 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 27 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Casa Pia have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against GIL Vicente — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Casa Pia
3
Draws
4
GIL Vicente
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Casa Pia and GIL Vicente?
From 8 meetings on record, Casa Pia have won 1, GIL Vicente have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Casa Pia and GIL Vicente last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2026, when GIL Vicente 2-1 Casa Pia.
Who has won more matches between Casa Pia and GIL Vicente?
GIL Vicente have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Casa Pia tend to start slowly — only 14% of their games have a goal by half-time.
GIL Vicente are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Casa Pia 14%, GIL Vicente 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 14% (Casa Pia) and 71% (GIL Vicente).
On the defensive side: Casa Pia keep a clean sheet in 71% of their matches; Casa Pia have failed to score in 43% of games; GIL Vicente in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Casa Pia home games / GIL Vicente away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Casa Pia play GIL Vicente?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 14% of Casa Pia's recent matches and 71% of GIL Vicente's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Casa Pia vs GIL Vicente usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 14% of Casa Pia's recent games and 71% of GIL Vicente's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Casa Pia and GIL Vicente tend to score early?
Casa Pia have had a goal before half-time in 14% of their recent matches, GIL Vicente in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
GIL Vicente cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Casa Pia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
GIL Vicente beat Casa Pia 1-3 at Estádio Nacional, Regular Season - 17, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Casa Pia 1.04 xG and GIL Vicente 0.82 xG, a combined 1.86. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. GIL Vicente outscored their 0.82 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Casa Pia attack 0.65 / defence 0.90 against GIL Vicente attack 0.93 / defence 1.17, drawn from 16/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Casa Pia 40% | Draw 32% | GIL Vicente 28%, with Casa Pia to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual GIL Vicente win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. Over 3.5 was 12% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Casa Pia 31%, GIL Vicente 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Casa Pia's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
GIL Vicente's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Casa Pia arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 0.94. Form was overturned, with GIL Vicente winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Casa Pia (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual. GIL Vicente (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.