Casa Pia 1-1 Farense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Casa Pia at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Casa Pia vs Farense encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Casa Pia host Farense at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 9 November 2024 at 15:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Casa Pia — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Primeira Liga outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D D L W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Casa Pia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Casa Pia at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Farense stand at 1W 1D 8L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Farense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Farense have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Casa Pia are in the better shape of the two on current Primeira Liga data — 0.80 PPG ahead (1.20 vs 0.40). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Casa Pia have won 1, Farense 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 20 Jan 2024, ended 1–3 with Farense winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Casa Pia in-play and half-time data (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Farense in-play and half-time data (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Casa Pia 43% versus Farense 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Casa Pia 43% | Farense 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Casa Pia 1.21 xG and Farense 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Casa Pia attack 0.859 / defence 0.947 | Farense attack 0.667 / defence 0.969. League average goals — home 1.454 / away 1.176. Data: 44 Casa Pia games / 44 Farense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Casa Pia 47% | Draw 30% | Farense 23%. Fair-value odds: Casa Pia 2.13 | Draw 3.33 | Farense 4.35. Casa Pia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Casa Pia at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Casa Pia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.95 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 31% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 37%. Form rates corroborate: Casa Pia 40% | Farense 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Casa Pia vs Farense | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Nov 2024, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Casa Pia 47% | Draw 30% | Farense 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 37% | xG Casa Pia 1.21 / Farense 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Casa Pia attack 0.859 / def 0.947 | Farense attack 0.667 / def 0.969 | league avg home 1.454 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: Casa Pia (47%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Casa Pia xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Farense xG
37%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Casa Pia vs Farense kick off?
Casa Pia vs Farense kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 9 November 2024 at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior.
What was the final score in Casa Pia vs Farense?
Casa Pia 1 - 1 Farense.
Where is Casa Pia vs Farense being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior.
What competition is Casa Pia vs Farense part of?
Casa Pia vs Farense is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Casa Pia vs Farense?
Our statistical model gives Casa Pia a 47% chance of winning, Farense a 23% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Casa Pia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Casa Pia vs Farense?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Casa Pia and Farense will score (BTTS).
Will Casa Pia vs Farense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Casa Pia and Farense?
Record (2 meetings): Casa Pia 1W | Draws 0 | Farense 1W.
What form are Casa Pia and Farense in?
Casa Pia (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-L-W-D. Farense (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-W-L-L.
What do the betting odds say about Casa Pia vs Farense?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Casa Pia's attack at 0.86x the league average against Farense's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.21 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Farense's attack versus Casa Pia's defence, projects 0.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (15.5%), 1-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Casa Pia Win
47%
2.12
30%
3.32
23%
4.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.2%
Draw
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Casa Pia xG
Total xG
1.95
0.74
Farense xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
4.40
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.72
63%
BTTS No
1.58
Clean Sheet
48%
2.10
30%
3.35
Win to Nil
22%
4.45
7%
14.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.2 | 10.5 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.2 | 12.8 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.4 | 7.7 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.2 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Casa Pia vs Farense?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.9%.
How many goals are Casa Pia and Farense expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Casa Pia and 0.74 for Farense, a combined total of 1.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Casa Pia vs Farense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Casa Pia's recent record stands at 13W 11D 20L from 44 games, a 1.14 PPG return, with D-D-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Casa Pia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Farense, meanwhile, have gone 11W 8D 25L across 44 games — 0.93 PPG, with L-D-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Farense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Casa Pia on 1.14 PPG, Farense on 0.93. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Casa Pia have managed 5W 6D 11L from 22 games — 0.95 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Farense's away record stands at 4W 4D 14L across 22 trips, a 0.73 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Casa Pia are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Farense are on 1.14 scored and 1.55 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Casa Pia
Blended
Farense
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Casa Pia and Farense in coming into this match?
Casa Pia have gone 13W 11D 20L in their last 44 games (1.14 PPG), while Farense have gone 11W 8D 25L in their last 44 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Casa Pia at home or Farense away?
Casa Pia's home record (0.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Casa Pia at home: 0.95 PPG; Farense away: 0.73 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Aug 2023, when Casa Pia won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Casa Pia's record when hosting Farense specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Casa Pia
2
Draws
1
Farense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Casa Pia and Farense?
From 4 meetings on record, Casa Pia have won 1, Farense have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Casa Pia and Farense last play each other?
They last met on 7 April 2025, when Farense 0-0 Casa Pia.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Casa Pia see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches.
Farense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Casa Pia 36%, Farense 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 27% (Casa Pia) and 50% (Farense).
On the defensive side: Casa Pia keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Casa Pia have failed to score in 50% of games; Farense in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Casa Pia home games / Farense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Casa Pia play Farense?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Casa Pia's recent matches and 54% of Farense's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Casa Pia vs Farense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 27% of Casa Pia's recent games and 50% of Farense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Casa Pia and Farense tend to score early?
Casa Pia have had a goal before half-time in 46% of their recent matches, Farense in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Casa Pia and Farense share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Casa Pia and Farense finished level at 1-1 at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior, Regular Season - 11, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Casa Pia 1.21 xG and Farense 0.74 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Casa Pia attack 0.86 / defence 0.95 against Farense attack 0.67 / defence 0.97, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Casa Pia 47% | Draw 30% | Farense 23%, with Casa Pia to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Casa Pia 43%, Farense 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Casa Pia's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Farense's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Casa Pia 1.14 PPG, Farense 0.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.