Casa Pia 0-1 Boavista – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Casa Pia at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Casa Pia vs Boavista fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Casa Pia and Boavista meet at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 1. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 10 August 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Casa Pia have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Casa Pia haven't played a Primeira Liga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
At home at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior, Casa Pia have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Boavista's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: D L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Boavista haven't played a Primeira Liga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
On the road, Boavista have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Casa Pia, 0.70 for Boavista — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Casa Pia 1W, Boavista 0W, 3D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 4 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 5 Feb 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Casa Pia — key trading statistics (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 41% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
Boavista — key trading statistics (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Casa Pia 44% versus Boavista 68%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Casa Pia 47% | Boavista 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Casa Pia 1.35 xG and Boavista 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Casa Pia attack 0.836 / defence 0.948 | Boavista attack 0.895 / defence 1.078. League average goals — home 1.503 / away 1.265. Data: 34 Casa Pia games / 34 Boavista games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Casa Pia 43% | Draw 28% | Boavista 29%. Fair-value odds: Casa Pia 2.33 | Draw 3.57 | Boavista 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Casa Pia at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Casa Pia if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.43 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates corroborate: Casa Pia 30% | Boavista 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Casa Pia vs Boavista | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Aug 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Casa Pia 43% | Draw 28% | Boavista 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Casa Pia 1.35 / Boavista 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Casa Pia attack 0.836 / def 0.948 | Boavista attack 0.895 / def 1.078 | league avg home 1.503 / away 1.265 • Poisson stance: Casa Pia (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Casa Pia xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Boavista xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Casa Pia vs Boavista kick off?
Casa Pia vs Boavista kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 10 August 2024 at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior.
What was the final score in Casa Pia vs Boavista?
Casa Pia 0 - 1 Boavista.
Where is Casa Pia vs Boavista being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior.
What competition is Casa Pia vs Boavista part of?
Casa Pia vs Boavista is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Casa Pia vs Boavista?
Our statistical model gives Casa Pia a 43% chance of winning, Boavista a 29% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Casa Pia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Casa Pia vs Boavista?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Casa Pia and Boavista will score (BTTS).
Will Casa Pia vs Boavista have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Casa Pia and Boavista?
Record (4 meetings): Casa Pia 1W | Draws 3 | Boavista 0W.
What form are Casa Pia and Boavista in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Casa Pia (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Casa Pia's attack rating (0.84) and Boavista's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.35 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Boavista's attack (0.90x) against Casa Pia's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.5%), 1-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Casa Pia Win
43%
2.33
28%
3.63
29%
3.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Casa Pia xG
Total xG
2.43
1.07
Boavista xG
2.33
43%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
3.39
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
26%
3.87
Win to Nil
15%
6.80
8%
13.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 12.8 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 8.7 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Casa Pia vs Boavista?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Casa Pia and Boavista expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Casa Pia and 1.07 for Boavista, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Casa Pia vs Boavista?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Casa Pia's recent record stands at 10W 8D 16L from 34 games, a 1.12 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-W in the last five. Casa Pia haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Boavista, meanwhile, have gone 7W 11D 16L across 34 games — 0.94 PPG, with D-L-D-L-D in their last five. Boavista haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.12 PPG for Casa Pia against 0.94 for Boavista. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Casa Pia have managed 3W 5D 9L from 17 games — 0.82 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Boavista's away record stands at 3W 3D 11L across 17 trips, a 0.71 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Casa Pia are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Boavista are on 1.15 scored and 1.82 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Boavista in 68%.
Last 34 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Casa Pia
Pre-Season
Boavista
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Casa Pia and Boavista in coming into this match?
Casa Pia have gone 10W 8D 16L in their last 34 games (1.12 PPG), while Boavista have gone 7W 11D 16L in their last 34 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Casa Pia at home or Boavista away?
Casa Pia's home record (0.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Casa Pia at home: 0.82 PPG; Boavista away: 0.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 January 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Casa Pia have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Boavista — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Casa Pia
3
Draws
1
Boavista
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Casa Pia and Boavista?
From 6 meetings on record, Casa Pia have won 2, Boavista have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Casa Pia and Boavista last play each other?
They last met on 20 January 2025, when Boavista 2-3 Casa Pia.
Who has won more matches between Casa Pia and Boavista?
Casa Pia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Casa Pia see a goal before the break in 41% of their matches.
Boavista are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Casa Pia 35%, Boavista 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Casa Pia) and 53% (Boavista).
On the defensive side: Casa Pia keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Casa Pia have failed to score in 53% of games; Boavista in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Casa Pia home games / Boavista away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Casa Pia play Boavista?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Casa Pia's recent matches and 65% of Boavista's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Casa Pia vs Boavista usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Casa Pia's recent games and 53% of Boavista's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Casa Pia and Boavista tend to score early?
Casa Pia have had a goal before half-time in 41% of their recent matches, Boavista in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Boavista defy the odds to beat Casa Pia 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Boavista beat Casa Pia 0-1 at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior, Regular Season - 1, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Casa Pia 1.35 xG and Boavista 1.07 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Casa Pia fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Casa Pia attack 0.84 / defence 0.95 against Boavista attack 0.90 / defence 1.08, drawn from 34/34 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Casa Pia 43% | Draw 28% | Boavista 29%, with Casa Pia to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Boavista win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Casa Pia 47%, Boavista 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Casa Pia's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Boavista's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Casa Pia 1.12 PPG, Boavista 0.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Boavista win broke the near-deadlock. Boavista (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.