Boavista 2-5 Famalicao – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Boavista at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Boavista vs Famalicao fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Famalicao make the trip to Estádio do Bessa Século XXI to face Boavista in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 11. The match kicks off on Friday 5 November 2021 at 21:15 UTC.
Form
Boavista (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D D D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Boavista, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Boavista's home record at Estádio do Bessa Século XXI: 2W 3D 0L from 5 Primeira Liga appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 5 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio do Bessa Século XXI. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Boavista are significantly better at Estádio do Bessa Século XXI than their overall form suggests.
Famalicao's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: D L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Famalicao, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Famalicao's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 3L across 5 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Boavista, 0.70 for Famalicao — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading & In-Play
Boavista — key trading statistics (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games).
Famalicao — key trading statistics (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Boavista 60% and Famalicao 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Boavista 50% | Famalicao 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Boavista 1.28 xG and Famalicao 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Boavista attack 0.977 / defence 0.889 | Famalicao attack 0.933 / defence 1.361. League average goals — home 0.960 / away 1.140. Famalicao bring a strong defensive rating of 1.361 — this is suppressing Boavista's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 10 Boavista games / 10 Famalicao games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Boavista 40% | Draw 36% | Famalicao 24%. Fair-value odds: Boavista 2.50 | Draw 2.78 | Famalicao 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Boavista are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 36% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Boavista if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.22 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Boavista 40% | Famalicao 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Boavista vs Famalicao | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Estádio do Bessa Século XXI • Kick-off: Friday 5 Nov 2021, 21:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Boavista 40% | Draw 36% | Famalicao 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 48% | xG Boavista 1.28 / Famalicao 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Boavista attack 0.977 / def 0.889 | Famalicao attack 0.933 / def 1.361 | league avg home 0.960 / away 1.140 • Poisson stance: Boavista (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Boavista xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Famalicao xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Boavista vs Famalicao kick off?
Boavista vs Famalicao kicked off at 21:15 on Friday 5 November 2021 at Estádio do Bessa Século XXI.
What was the final score in Boavista vs Famalicao?
Boavista 2 - 5 Famalicao.
Where is Boavista vs Famalicao being played?
The match is being played at Estádio do Bessa Século XXI.
What competition is Boavista vs Famalicao part of?
Boavista vs Famalicao is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Boavista vs Famalicao?
Our statistical model gives Boavista a 40% chance of winning, Famalicao a 24% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Boavista the favourite.
Will both teams score in Boavista vs Famalicao?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Boavista and Famalicao will score (BTTS).
Will Boavista vs Famalicao have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Boavista and Famalicao?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Boavista and Famalicao in?
Boavista (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-D-D-L. Famalicao (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Boavista's attack rating (0.98) and Famalicao's defence rating (1.36), the model arrives at 1.28 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Famalicao's attack (0.93x) against Boavista's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.5%), 1-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Boavista Win
40%
2.49
36%
2.76
24%
4.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Boavista xG
Total xG
2.22
0.95
Famalicao xG
2.49
40%
Home win
2.76
36%
Draw
4.23
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
28%
3.59
Win to Nil
16%
6.42
7%
15.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 10.2 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 13.1 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 8.4 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Boavista vs Famalicao?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Boavista and Famalicao expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Boavista and 0.95 for Famalicao, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Boavista vs Famalicao?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 10 outings, Boavista have picked up 1.10 PPG on a 2W 5D 3L record — L-D-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Boavista is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Famalicao's form line: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games, 0.70 PPG, last five D-L-L-W-D. The sample for Famalicao is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Boavista are the form team by 0.40 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Famalicao.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Boavista have posted 1.80 PPG from 5 outings (2W 3D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 1.10 PPG overall — Boavista are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Famalicao have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 away games — 0.80 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Boavista come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Boavista are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Famalicao are on 1.10 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Boavista have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Famalicao in 70%.
Last 10 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Boavista
Blended
Famalicao
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Boavista and Famalicao in coming into this match?
Boavista have gone 2W 5D 3L in their last 10 games (1.10 PPG), while Famalicao have gone 1W 4D 5L in their last 10 (0.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Boavista at home or Famalicao away?
Boavista's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Boavista at home: 1.80 PPG; Famalicao away: 0.80 PPG.
Have Boavista or Famalicao been keeping clean sheets recently?
Boavista have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Famalicao in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Famalicao have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Famalicao won 4-0 on 2 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Boavista have gone 0W 1D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Famalicao — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Boavista
2
Draws
5
Famalicao
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Boavista and Famalicao?
From 8 meetings on record, Boavista have won 1, Famalicao have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Boavista and Famalicao last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2025, when Boavista 0-2 Famalicao.
Who has won more matches between Boavista and Famalicao?
Famalicao have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Boavista are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Famalicao are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Boavista 40%, Famalicao 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 20% (Boavista) and 60% (Famalicao).
On the defensive side: Boavista keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Boavista home games / Famalicao away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Boavista play Famalicao?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Boavista's recent matches and 60% of Famalicao's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Boavista vs Famalicao usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Boavista's recent games and 60% of Famalicao's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Boavista and Famalicao tend to score early?
Boavista have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Famalicao in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Famalicao run riot with a 2-5 hammering of Boavista.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Famalicao beat Boavista 2-5 at Estádio do Bessa Século XXI, Regular Season - 11, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Boavista 1.28 xG and Famalicao 0.95 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 2-5 for 7 actual goals. Famalicao outscored their 0.95 projection by 4.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Boavista attack 0.98 / defence 0.89 against Famalicao attack 0.93 / defence 1.36, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Boavista 40% | Draw 36% | Famalicao 24%, with Boavista to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a Famalicao win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Boavista 50%, Famalicao 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Boavista's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Famalicao's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Boavista arrived the stronger side — 1.10 PPG against 0.70. Form was overturned, with Famalicao winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Boavista (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 0.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Famalicao (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.