Boavista 2-1 Estoril – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Estoril at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Boavista vs Estoril encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Estoril make the trip to Estádio do Bessa Século XXI to face Boavista in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Saturday 10 February 2024 at 20:30 UTC.
Form
Boavista (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this term — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D W L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Boavista, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Boavista's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 games at Estádio do Bessa Século XXI this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Estoril's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L L L D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.50. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Estoril, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Estoril's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Estoril are 0.80 PPG clear of Boavista in recent Primeira Liga fixtures (1.40 vs 0.60). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Boavista register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Estoril in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Boavista 3W, Estoril 1W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.8 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 3 Sep 2023, ended 2–1 with Boavista winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Boavista goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Estoril goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Boavista 65% versus Estoril 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Boavista 57% | Estoril 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Boavista 1.54 xG and Estoril 1.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Boavista attack 0.839 / defence 1.414 | Estoril attack 0.990 / defence 1.221. League average goals — home 1.507 / away 1.235. Estoril bring a strong defensive rating of 1.221 — this is suppressing Boavista's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 54 Boavista games / 54 Estoril games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Boavista 34% | Draw 24% | Estoril 42%. Fair-value odds: Boavista 2.94 | Draw 4.17 | Estoril 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.54 / 1.73) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Boavista dominate the H2H record, yet Estoril are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
Poisson rates Estoril as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Estoril if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.27 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Boavista 80% | Estoril 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Boavista vs Estoril | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Estádio do Bessa Século XXI • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Feb 2024, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Boavista 34% | Draw 24% | Estoril 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 65% | xG Boavista 1.54 / Estoril 1.73 • Poisson strength factors: Boavista attack 0.839 / def 1.414 | Estoril attack 0.990 / def 1.221 | league avg home 1.507 / away 1.235 • Poisson stance: Estoril (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Boavista xG
Expected Goals
1.73
Estoril xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Boavista vs Estoril kick off?
Boavista vs Estoril kicked off at 20:30 on Saturday 10 February 2024 at Estádio do Bessa Século XXI.
What was the final score in Boavista vs Estoril?
Boavista 2 - 1 Estoril.
Where is Boavista vs Estoril being played?
The match is being played at Estádio do Bessa Século XXI.
What competition is Boavista vs Estoril part of?
Boavista vs Estoril is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Boavista vs Estoril?
Our statistical model gives Boavista a 34% chance of winning, Estoril a 42% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Estoril the favourite.
Will both teams score in Boavista vs Estoril?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Boavista and Estoril will score (BTTS).
Will Boavista vs Estoril have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Boavista and Estoril?
Record (5 meetings): Boavista 3W | Draws 1 | Estoril 1W.
What form are Boavista and Estoril in?
Boavista (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-W-L-L-D. Estoril (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Boavista's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Estoril's defensive record (1.22x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.54. Flip it around — Estoril's attack (0.99x) against Boavista's defence (1.41x) — and the away total comes out at 1.73.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Estoril Win
34%
2.92
24%
4.21
42%
2.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
2 – 1
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Boavista xG
Total xG
3.27
1.73
Estoril xG
2.92
34%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
2.38
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.86
Clean Sheet
18%
5.64
21%
4.68
Win to Nil
6%
16.48
9%
11.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 6.6 | 5.7 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 10.1 | 8.7 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.8 | 6.7 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Boavista vs Estoril?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Boavista and Estoril expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Boavista and 1.73 for Estoril, a combined total of 3.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Boavista vs Estoril?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Boavista come into this having played 54 games, going 17W 14D 23L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-L-D. The sample for Boavista is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Estoril sit at 1.04 PPG from 54 outings (16W 8D 30L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Estoril is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.20 PPG for Boavista against 1.04 for Estoril. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Boavista's home form reads 10W 10D 7L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.48 PPG return.
Away from home, Estoril have taken 0.63 points per game from 27 outings (4W 5D 18L). That's a step down from their 1.04 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Estoril's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Boavista come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Boavista are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Estoril are on 1.24 scored and 1.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Boavista have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 54 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Boavista
Blended
Estoril
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Boavista and Estoril in coming into this match?
Boavista have gone 17W 14D 23L in their last 54 games (1.20 PPG), while Estoril have gone 16W 8D 30L in their last 54 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Boavista at home or Estoril away?
Boavista's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Boavista at home: 1.48 PPG; Estoril away: 0.63 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Boavista have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Estoril — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Boavista
2
Draws
2
Estoril
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Boavista and Estoril?
From 8 meetings on record, Boavista have won 4, Estoril have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Boavista and Estoril last play each other?
They last met on 9 February 2025, when Estoril 2-1 Boavista.
Who has won more matches between Boavista and Estoril?
Boavista have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Boavista are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Estoril are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Boavista 70%, Estoril 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Boavista) and 41% (Estoril).
On the defensive side: Estoril in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Boavista home games / Estoril away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Boavista play Estoril?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Boavista's games and 52% of Estoril's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Boavista vs Estoril usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Boavista's recent games and 41% of Estoril's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Boavista and Estoril tend to score early?
Boavista have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Estoril in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Boavista defy the odds to beat Estoril 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Boavista beat Estoril 2-1 at Estádio do Bessa Século XXI, Regular Season - 21, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Boavista 1.54 xG and Estoril 1.73 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Boavista attack 0.84 / defence 1.41 against Estoril attack 0.99 / defence 1.22, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Boavista 34% | Draw 24% | Estoril 42%, with Estoril to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Boavista win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Boavista 57%, Estoril 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Boavista's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Estoril's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Boavista 1.20 PPG, Estoril 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Boavista win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.