Boavista 1-1 Chaves – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Boavista at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Boavista vs Chaves fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primeira Liga clash, Regular Season - 17 as Boavista welcome Chaves to Estádio do Bessa Século XXI. Kick-off is set for Monday 23 January 2023 at 20:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Boavista — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Primeira Liga outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Boavista, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Boavista's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Estádio do Bessa Século XXI this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Chaves have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Chaves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Primeira Liga this season, Chaves have posted 4W 1D 4L from 9 away outings — 1.44 PPG. Away from home they average 0.89 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Boavista) versus 1.30 (Chaves). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Data
Boavista trading profile (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Chaves trading profile (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Boavista 56% versus Chaves 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Boavista 56% | Chaves 28%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Boavista 1.45 xG and Chaves 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Boavista attack 0.949 / defence 1.138 | Chaves attack 0.891 / defence 1.142. League average goals — home 1.339 / away 0.994. Data: 49 Boavista games / 16 Chaves games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Boavista 47% | Draw 26% | Chaves 26%. Fair-value odds: Boavista 2.13 | Draw 3.85 | Chaves 3.85. Boavista hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Boavista at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Boavista offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.46 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Boavista 60% | Chaves 33%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Boavista vs Chaves | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Estádio do Bessa Século XXI • Kick-off: Monday 23 Jan 2023, 20:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Boavista 47% | Draw 26% | Chaves 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 49% | xG Boavista 1.45 / Chaves 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Boavista attack 0.949 / def 1.138 | Chaves attack 0.891 / def 1.142 | league avg home 1.339 / away 0.994 • Poisson stance: Boavista (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Boavista xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Chaves xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Boavista vs Chaves kick off?
Boavista vs Chaves kicked off at 20:15 on Monday 23 January 2023 at Estádio do Bessa Século XXI.
What was the final score in Boavista vs Chaves?
Boavista 1 - 1 Chaves.
Where is Boavista vs Chaves being played?
The match is being played at Estádio do Bessa Século XXI.
What competition is Boavista vs Chaves part of?
Boavista vs Chaves is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Boavista vs Chaves?
Our statistical model gives Boavista a 47% chance of winning, Chaves a 26% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Boavista the favourite.
Will both teams score in Boavista vs Chaves?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Boavista and Chaves will score (BTTS).
Will Boavista vs Chaves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Boavista and Chaves?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Boavista and Chaves in?
Boavista (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Chaves (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Boavista's attack at 0.95x the league average against Chaves's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.45 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Chaves's attack versus Boavista's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.8%), 0-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Boavista Win
47%
2.11
26%
3.78
26%
3.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Boavista xG
Total xG
2.46
1.01
Chaves xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
3.81
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
36%
2.74
23%
4.26
Win to Nil
17%
5.79
6%
16.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 8.6 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 12.5 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.1 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Boavista vs Chaves?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Boavista and Chaves expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Boavista and 1.01 for Chaves, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Boavista vs Chaves?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Boavista's recent record stands at 7W 4D 7L from 18 games, a 1.39 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Boavista is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Chaves, meanwhile, have gone 6W 6D 6L across 18 games — 1.33 PPG, with D-W-L-D-D in their last five. The sample for Chaves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Boavista on 1.39 PPG, Chaves on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Boavista have managed 4W 3D 2L from 9 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Chaves's away record stands at 4W 1D 4L across 9 trips, a 1.44 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Boavista are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Chaves are on 0.94 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Last 18 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Boavista
Blended
Chaves
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Boavista and Chaves in coming into this match?
Boavista have gone 7W 4D 7L in their last 18 games (1.39 PPG), while Chaves have gone 6W 6D 6L in their last 18 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Boavista at home or Chaves away?
Boavista's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Boavista at home: 1.67 PPG; Chaves away: 1.44 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Boavista and Chaves runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 May 2023, when Boavista won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Boavista's record when hosting Chaves specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Boavista
1
Draws
1
Chaves
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Boavista and Chaves?
From 4 meetings on record, Boavista have won 2, Chaves have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Boavista and Chaves last play each other?
They last met on 17 February 2024, when Chaves 2-1 Boavista.
Who has won more matches between Boavista and Chaves?
Boavista have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Boavista are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Chaves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Boavista 67%, Chaves 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Boavista) and 44% (Chaves).
On the defensive side: Chaves in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Boavista home games / Chaves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Boavista play Chaves?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Boavista's recent matches and 33% of Chaves's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Boavista vs Chaves usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Boavista's recent games and 44% of Chaves's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Boavista and Chaves tend to score early?
Boavista have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Chaves in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Boavista and Chaves share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio do Bessa Século XXI, Regular Season - 17, as Boavista and Chaves drew 1-1 in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Boavista 1.45 xG and Chaves 1.01 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Boavista attack 0.95 / defence 1.14 against Chaves attack 0.89 / defence 1.14, drawn from 49/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Boavista 47% | Draw 26% | Chaves 26%, with Boavista to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Boavista 56%, Chaves 28%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Boavista's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Chaves's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Boavista 1.39 PPG, Chaves 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.