Arouca 1-1 Santa Clara – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Santa Clara at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Arouca vs Santa Clara fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primeira Liga encounter, Regular Season - 30 sees Santa Clara travel to Estádio Municipal de Arouca to take on Arouca. The game is scheduled for Friday 15 April 2022, 15:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Arouca stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Arouca have posted 3W 1D 6L at Estádio Municipal de Arouca — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Santa Clara have recorded 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Santa Clara's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Arouca) versus 1.40 (Santa Clara). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Arouca, 1 for Santa Clara and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 5 Dec 2021, ended 1–2 with Santa Clara winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Arouca in-play tendencies (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Santa Clara in-play tendencies (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Arouca 55% versus Santa Clara 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Arouca 55% | Santa Clara 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Arouca 1.02 xG and Santa Clara 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Arouca attack 0.768 / defence 1.459 | Santa Clara attack 0.685 / defence 1.308. League average goals — home 1.015 / away 1.241. Arouca's attack strength of 0.768 is below the league average — the 1.02 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Santa Clara bring a strong defensive rating of 1.308 — this is suppressing Arouca's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 29 Arouca games / 29 Santa Clara games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Arouca 29% | Draw 31% | Santa Clara 40%. Fair-value odds: Arouca 3.45 | Draw 3.23 | Santa Clara 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Santa Clara are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Santa Clara offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.26 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Arouca 40% | Santa Clara 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Arouca vs Santa Clara | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Estádio Municipal de Arouca • Kick-off: Friday 15 Apr 2022, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Arouca 29% | Draw 31% | Santa Clara 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 47% | xG Arouca 1.02 / Santa Clara 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Arouca attack 0.768 / def 1.459 | Santa Clara attack 0.685 / def 1.308 | league avg home 1.015 / away 1.241 • Poisson stance: Santa Clara (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Arouca xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Santa Clara xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Arouca vs Santa Clara kick off?
Arouca vs Santa Clara kicked off at 15:30 on Friday 15 April 2022 at Estádio Municipal de Arouca.
What was the final score in Arouca vs Santa Clara?
Arouca 1 - 1 Santa Clara.
Where is Arouca vs Santa Clara being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal de Arouca.
What competition is Arouca vs Santa Clara part of?
Arouca vs Santa Clara is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Arouca vs Santa Clara?
Our statistical model gives Arouca a 29% chance of winning, Santa Clara a 40% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Santa Clara the favourite.
Will both teams score in Arouca vs Santa Clara?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Arouca and Santa Clara will score (BTTS).
Will Arouca vs Santa Clara have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Arouca and Santa Clara?
Record (1 meetings): Arouca 0W | Draws 0 | Santa Clara 1W.
What form are Arouca and Santa Clara in?
Arouca (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. Santa Clara (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Arouca's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against Santa Clara's defensive record (1.31x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.02. The same calculation in reverse, Santa Clara's attack versus Arouca's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.2%), 0-1 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Santa Clara Win
29%
3.45
31%
3.22
40%
2.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.0%
Away win
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Arouca xG
Total xG
2.26
1.24
Santa Clara xG
3.45
29%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
2.50
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
29%
3.46
36%
2.77
Win to Nil
8%
11.93
14%
6.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 13.0 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 13.2 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 6.7 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Arouca vs Santa Clara?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Arouca and Santa Clara expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Arouca and 1.24 for Santa Clara, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Arouca vs Santa Clara?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Arouca's recent record stands at 6W 8D 15L from 29 games, a 0.90 PPG return, with L-L-D-W-L in the last five.
Santa Clara, meanwhile, have gone 8W 10D 11L across 29 games — 1.17 PPG, with W-D-D-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Arouca on 0.90 PPG, Santa Clara on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Arouca have managed 4W 2D 8L from 14 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Santa Clara's away record stands at 1W 5D 8L across 14 trips, a 0.57 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.17 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Santa Clara's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Arouca come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Arouca are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Santa Clara are on 1.10 scored and 1.59 conceded.
Last 29 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Arouca
Current Season
Santa Clara
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Arouca and Santa Clara in coming into this match?
Arouca have gone 6W 8D 15L in their last 29 games (0.90 PPG), while Santa Clara have gone 8W 10D 11L in their last 29 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Arouca at home or Santa Clara away?
Arouca's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Arouca at home: 1.00 PPG; Santa Clara away: 0.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Arouca's record when hosting Santa Clara specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Arouca
3
Draws
2
Santa Clara
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Arouca and Santa Clara?
From 8 meetings on record, Arouca have won 3, Santa Clara have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Arouca and Santa Clara last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Arouca 2-2 Santa Clara.
Who has won more matches between Arouca and Santa Clara?
Arouca have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Arouca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Santa Clara are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Arouca 50%, Santa Clara 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for Arouca and 64% for Santa Clara. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Arouca have failed to score in 43% of games; Santa Clara in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Arouca home games / Santa Clara away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Arouca play Santa Clara?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Arouca's recent matches and 57% of Santa Clara's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Arouca vs Santa Clara usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Arouca's matches and 64% of Santa Clara's.
Do Arouca and Santa Clara tend to score early?
Arouca have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Santa Clara in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Arouca and Santa Clara share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Arouca and Santa Clara finished level at 1-1 at Estádio Municipal de Arouca, Regular Season - 30, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Arouca 1.02 xG and Santa Clara 1.24 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arouca attack 0.77 / defence 1.46 against Santa Clara attack 0.69 / defence 1.31, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Arouca 29% | Draw 31% | Santa Clara 40%, with Santa Clara to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arouca 55%, Santa Clara 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Arouca's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Santa Clara's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Arouca 0.90 PPG, Santa Clara 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Arouca (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.