Arouca 2-1 Maritimo – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Arouca at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Arouca vs Maritimo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Arouca and Maritimo meet at Estádio Municipal de Arouca in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 4. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 29 August 2026 at 14:30 UTC.
Current Form
Arouca's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Arouca have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Arouca's home record at Estádio Municipal de Arouca: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Primeira Liga appearances (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Maritimo (all games): 2W 1D 0L across 3 Primeira Liga outings this term — 2.33 points per game. Last five: W W D. They are scoring at 1.67 per game and conceding 1.00. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Maritimo have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.90 vs 2.33 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using overall form) — Arouca have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Maritimo in 67%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Arouca, 1 for Maritimo and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Apr 2023, ended 1–0 with Arouca winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Arouca goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (3 games): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Maritimo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Arouca 0% | Maritimo 67%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Arouca 33% | Maritimo 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Arouca 1.98 xG and Maritimo 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Arouca attack 1.307 / defence 0.910 | Maritimo attack 0.984 / defence 1.068. League average goals — home 1.419 / away 1.262. Arouca carry an above-average attack strength of 1.307 — their λ of 1.98 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 37 Arouca games / 3 Maritimo games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Arouca 57% | Draw 22% | Maritimo 21%. Fair-value odds: Arouca 1.75 | Draw 4.55 | Maritimo 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Arouca (57%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Arouca are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.11 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Arouca 70% | Maritimo 67% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Arouca vs Maritimo | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Estádio Municipal de Arouca • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Aug 2026, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Arouca 57% | Draw 22% | Maritimo 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 58% | xG Arouca 1.98 / Maritimo 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Arouca attack 1.307 / def 0.910 | Maritimo attack 0.984 / def 1.068 | league avg home 1.419 / away 1.262 • Poisson stance: Arouca (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.98
Arouca xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Maritimo xG
58%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Arouca vs Maritimo kick off?
Arouca vs Maritimo kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 29 August 2026 at Estádio Municipal de Arouca.
What was the final score in Arouca vs Maritimo?
Arouca 2 - 1 Maritimo.
Where is Arouca vs Maritimo being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal de Arouca.
What competition is Arouca vs Maritimo part of?
Arouca vs Maritimo is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Arouca vs Maritimo?
Our statistical model gives Arouca a 57% chance of winning, Maritimo a 21% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Arouca the favourite.
Will both teams score in Arouca vs Maritimo?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Arouca and Maritimo will score (BTTS).
Will Arouca vs Maritimo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Arouca and Maritimo?
Record (4 meetings): Arouca 1W | Draws 2 | Maritimo 1W.
What form are Arouca and Maritimo in?
Arouca (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Maritimo (all comps): 2W-1D-0L in 3 | 2.33 PPG | GF 1.67 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Arouca's attack rating (1.31) and Maritimo's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.98 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Maritimo's attack (0.98x) against Arouca's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
The sample (37/3 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (8.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Arouca Win
57%
1.75
22%
4.63
21%
4.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.98
Arouca xG
Total xG
3.11
1.13
Maritimo xG
1.75
57%
Home win
4.63
22%
Draw
4.70
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
14%
7.25
Win to Nil
18%
5.42
3%
34.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 5.0 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 10.0 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.9 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 6.5 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Arouca vs Maritimo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Arouca and Maritimo expected to score?
The model projects 1.98 expected goals for Arouca and 1.13 for Maritimo, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Arouca vs Maritimo?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Arouca's recent record stands at 2W 0D 1L from 3 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with W-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Arouca, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Maritimo, meanwhile, have gone 2W 1D 0L across 3 games — 2.33 PPG, with W-W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Maritimo, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.00 PPG for Arouca against 2.33 for Maritimo. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Arouca are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game recently; Maritimo are on 1.67 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Arouca have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Maritimo in 67%.
Defensively: Arouca have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 3 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Arouca
Early Season
Maritimo
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Arouca and Maritimo in coming into this match?
Arouca have gone 2W 0D 1L in their last 3 games (2.00 PPG), while Maritimo have gone 2W 1D 0L in their last 3 (2.33 PPG).
Have Arouca or Maritimo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Arouca have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their recent games, Maritimo in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Arouca have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Maritimo won 0-3 on 14 Feb 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Arouca have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Maritimo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Arouca
2
Draws
1
Maritimo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Arouca and Maritimo?
From 5 meetings on record, Arouca have won 2, Maritimo have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Arouca and Maritimo last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Arouca 2-1 Maritimo.
Who has won more matches between Arouca and Maritimo?
Arouca have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Arouca see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Maritimo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 0% (Arouca) and 67% (Maritimo) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Arouca) and 67% (Maritimo).
On the defensive side: Arouca keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Maritimo in 33%; Arouca have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Arouca home games / Maritimo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Arouca play Maritimo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Arouca's recent matches and 67% of Maritimo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Arouca vs Maritimo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Arouca's recent games and 67% of Maritimo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Arouca and Maritimo tend to score early?
Arouca have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Maritimo in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Arouca edge out Maritimo 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Arouca beat Maritimo 2-1 at Estádio Municipal de Arouca, Regular Season - 4, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Arouca 1.98 xG and Maritimo 1.13 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arouca attack 1.31 / defence 0.91 against Maritimo attack 0.98 / defence 1.07, drawn from 37/3 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Arouca 57% | Draw 22% | Maritimo 21%, with Arouca to win its most likely call at 57%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arouca 33%, Maritimo 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Arouca's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 0% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and conceded here.
Maritimo's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Arouca 2.00 PPG, Maritimo 2.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Arouca win broke the near-deadlock. Maritimo shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.