Arouca 1-0 GIL Vicente – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Arouca at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Arouca vs GIL Vicente fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio Municipal de Arouca plays host to Arouca versus GIL Vicente in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off: Monday 15 August 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Arouca (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Arouca have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Arouca have posted 2W 3D 5L at Estádio Municipal de Arouca — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
GIL Vicente have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. GIL Vicente have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Primeira Liga this season, GIL Vicente have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Arouca against 1.20 for GIL Vicente. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Arouca lead 1W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Apr 2022, ended 2–1 with Arouca winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Arouca goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
GIL Vicente goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Arouca 51% versus GIL Vicente 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Arouca 51% | GIL Vicente 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Arouca 1.30 xG and GIL Vicente 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Arouca attack 0.876 / defence 1.056 | GIL Vicente attack 1.024 / defence 1.116. League average goals — home 1.332 / away 1.041. Data: 35 Arouca games / 35 GIL Vicente games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Arouca 41% | Draw 27% | GIL Vicente 32%. Fair-value odds: Arouca 2.44 | Draw 3.70 | GIL Vicente 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Arouca as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Arouca if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.43 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Arouca 30% | GIL Vicente 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (35 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Arouca vs GIL Vicente | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Estádio Municipal de Arouca • Kick-off: Monday 15 Aug 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Arouca 41% | Draw 27% | GIL Vicente 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Arouca 1.30 / GIL Vicente 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Arouca attack 0.876 / def 1.056 | GIL Vicente attack 1.024 / def 1.116 | league avg home 1.332 / away 1.041 • Poisson stance: Arouca (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Arouca xG
Expected Goals
1.13
GIL Vicente xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Arouca vs GIL Vicente kick off?
Arouca vs GIL Vicente kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 15 August 2022 at Estádio Municipal de Arouca.
What was the final score in Arouca vs GIL Vicente?
Arouca 1 - 0 GIL Vicente.
Where is Arouca vs GIL Vicente being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal de Arouca.
What competition is Arouca vs GIL Vicente part of?
Arouca vs GIL Vicente is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Arouca vs GIL Vicente?
Our statistical model gives Arouca a 41% chance of winning, GIL Vicente a 32% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Arouca the favourite.
Will both teams score in Arouca vs GIL Vicente?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Arouca and GIL Vicente will score (BTTS).
Will Arouca vs GIL Vicente have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Arouca and GIL Vicente?
Record (2 meetings): Arouca 1W | Draws 1 | GIL Vicente 0W.
What form are Arouca and GIL Vicente in?
Arouca (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. GIL Vicente (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Arouca's attack at 0.88x the league average against GIL Vicente's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.30 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — GIL Vicente's attack (1.02x) against Arouca's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
The sample (35/35 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.5%), 1-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Arouca Win
41%
2.47
27%
3.66
32%
3.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Arouca xG
Total xG
2.43
1.13
GIL Vicente xG
2.47
41%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
3.12
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
32%
3.08
27%
3.67
Win to Nil
13%
7.60
9%
11.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 9.9 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 12.9 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.4 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Arouca vs GIL Vicente?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Arouca and GIL Vicente expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Arouca and 1.13 for GIL Vicente, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Arouca vs GIL Vicente?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Arouca's recent record stands at 7W 10D 18L from 35 games, a 0.89 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Arouca, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
GIL Vicente, meanwhile, have gone 14W 12D 9L across 35 games — 1.54 PPG, with D-L-W-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for GIL Vicente, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours GIL Vicente by 0.65 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Arouca heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Arouca have managed 5W 4D 8L from 17 games — 1.12 PPG in front of their own supporters.
GIL Vicente's away record stands at 7W 6D 4L across 17 trips, a 1.59 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, GIL Vicente come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Arouca are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 1.66 conceded per game recently; GIL Vicente are on 1.37 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Last 35 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Arouca
Early Season
GIL Vicente
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Arouca and GIL Vicente in coming into this match?
Arouca have gone 7W 10D 18L in their last 35 games (0.89 PPG), while GIL Vicente have gone 14W 12D 9L in their last 35 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Arouca at home or GIL Vicente away?
GIL Vicente's away record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Arouca at home: 1.12 PPG; GIL Vicente away: 1.59 PPG.
Have Arouca or GIL Vicente been keeping clean sheets recently?
Arouca have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, GIL Vicente in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 11 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Arouca won 3-0 on 16 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Arouca have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against GIL Vicente — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Arouca
6
Draws
0
GIL Vicente
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Arouca and GIL Vicente?
From 10 meetings on record, Arouca have won 4, GIL Vicente have won 0, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Arouca and GIL Vicente last play each other?
They last met on 11 May 2026, when GIL Vicente 1-3 Arouca.
Who has won more matches between Arouca and GIL Vicente?
Arouca have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Arouca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
GIL Vicente see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Arouca 47%, GIL Vicente 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Arouca) and 53% (GIL Vicente).
On the defensive side: Arouca have failed to score in 41% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Arouca home games / GIL Vicente away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Arouca play GIL Vicente?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Arouca's recent matches and 59% of GIL Vicente's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Arouca vs GIL Vicente usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Arouca's recent games and 53% of GIL Vicente's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Arouca and GIL Vicente tend to score early?
Arouca have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, GIL Vicente in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Arouca edge out GIL Vicente 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Arouca beat GIL Vicente 1-0 at Estádio Municipal de Arouca, Regular Season - 2, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Arouca 1.30 xG and GIL Vicente 1.13 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. GIL Vicente landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arouca attack 0.88 / defence 1.06 against GIL Vicente attack 1.02 / defence 1.12, drawn from 35/35 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Arouca 41% | Draw 27% | GIL Vicente 32%, with Arouca to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arouca 51%, GIL Vicente 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Arouca's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
GIL Vicente's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, GIL Vicente arrived the stronger side — 1.54 PPG against 0.89. Form was overturned, with Arouca winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Arouca (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.71 average — tighter than their form line. GIL Vicente (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.