Arouca 0-2 Benfica – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Benfica (44%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Arouca face Benfica.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Benfica travel to Estádio Municipal de Arouca to take on Arouca in Primeira Liga (matchday 12). The game is scheduled for Sunday 1 December 2024 at 18:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Arouca — last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Arouca's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Benfica stand at 8W 1D 1L — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.80 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling, Benfica have posted 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Benfica are 1.70 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
Benfica have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 6 of the 6 H2H matches we hold against 0 for Arouca.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.2 per game across the 6 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 12 May 2024, ended Arouca 0–5 Benfica — a Benfica win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Benfica have won 6 of 6 H2H matches, and at 3.2 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
Arouca trading profile (last 44 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Benfica trading profile (last 44 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Arouca 48% versus Benfica 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Arouca 59% | Benfica 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Arouca 1.14 xG and Benfica 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Arouca attack 0.834 / defence 1.102 | Benfica attack 1.147 / defence 0.963. League average goals — home 1.417 / away 1.137. Data: built from Arouca's last 45 games and Benfica's last 44.
Result probabilities: Arouca 30% | Draw 26% | Benfica 44%. Fair-value odds: Arouca 3.35 | Draw 3.82 | Benfica 2.28. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Benfica are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Benfica offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.58 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 6 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Arouca 50% (last 10 home games) | Benfica 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Arouca vs Benfica | Competition: Primeira Liga, matchday 12 | Venue: Estádio Municipal de Arouca • Kick-off: Sunday 1 December 2024 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Arouca 30% | Draw 26% | Benfica 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Arouca 1.14 / Benfica 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Arouca attack 0.834 / def 1.102 | Benfica attack 1.147 / def 0.963 | league avg home 1.417 / away 1.137 • Poisson stance: Benfica (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Arouca xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Benfica xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Arouca vs Benfica FAQs
What time does Arouca vs Benfica kick off?
Arouca vs Benfica kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Sunday 1 December 2024 at Estádio Municipal de Arouca.
What was the final score in Arouca vs Benfica?
Arouca 0 - 2 Benfica.
Where is Arouca vs Benfica being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal de Arouca.
What competition is Arouca vs Benfica part of?
Arouca vs Benfica is a Primeira Liga fixture (matchday 12) (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Arouca vs Benfica?
Our statistical model gives Arouca a 30% chance of winning, Benfica a 44% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Benfica the favourite.
Will both teams score in Arouca vs Benfica?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Arouca and Benfica will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Arouca vs Benfica have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Arouca's attack at 0.83x the league average against Benfica's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.14 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Benfica's attack versus Arouca's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Arouca's last 45 games and Benfica's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (9.3%), 0-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Benfica Win
30%
3.35
26%
3.82
44%
2.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Arouca xG
Total xG
2.58
1.44
Benfica xG
3.35
30%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
2.28
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
24%
4.21
32%
3.12
Win to Nil
7%
14.10
14%
7.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 10.9 | 7.9 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.4 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.1 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Arouca vs Benfica Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Arouca vs Benfica?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Arouca and Benfica expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Arouca and 1.44 for Benfica, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Arouca vs Benfica?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Arouca's recent record stands at 14W 9D 21L from 44 games, a 1.16 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-D in the last five.
Benfica, meanwhile, have gone 33W 6D 5L across 44 games — 2.39 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Benfica by 1.23 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Arouca heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Arouca have managed 7W 4D 10L from their last 21 home games — 1.19 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Benfica's away record stands at 12W 4D 5L across their last 21 away games, a 1.90 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 2.39 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Benfica's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Benfica come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Arouca are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Benfica are on 2.39 scored and 0.80 conceded.
Defensively: Benfica in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Arouca
Blended
Benfica
Blended
Arouca (Home) vs Benfica (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Arouca
Blended
Benfica
Blended
❓ Arouca vs Benfica Form FAQs
What form are Arouca and Benfica in coming into this match?
Arouca have gone 14W 9D 21L in their last 44 games (1.16 PPG), while Benfica have gone 33W 6D 5L in their last 44 (2.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Arouca at home or Benfica away?
Benfica's away record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Arouca at home: 1.19 PPG; Benfica away: 1.90 PPG.
Have Arouca or Benfica been keeping clean sheets recently?
Arouca have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Benfica in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from August 2021. All of them came in Primeira Liga. The most recent was on 14 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Benfica have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 12 May 2024, when Benfica won Benfica 5-0 Arouca.
Arouca's record when hosting Benfica specifically: 0W 0D 5L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Arouca
1
Draws
9
Benfica
Recent Meetings
❓ Arouca vs Benfica H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Arouca and Benfica?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Arouca have won 0, Benfica have won 9, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Arouca and Benfica last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 March 2026: Arouca 1-2 Benfica.
Who has won more matches between Arouca and Benfica?
Benfica have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Arouca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Benfica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Arouca 43%, Benfica 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Arouca) and 57% (Benfica). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Benfica in 33%; Arouca have failed to score in 43% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Arouca home games / Benfica away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Arouca vs Benfica Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Arouca and Benfica matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Arouca's recent matches and 52% of Benfica's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Arouca and Benfica matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Arouca's matches and 57% of Benfica's.
Do Arouca and Benfica matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 86% of Arouca's recent matches and 71% of Benfica's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Benfica cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Arouca.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Benfica beat Arouca 0-2 at Estádio Municipal de Arouca, Regular Season - 12, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Arouca 1.14 xG and Benfica 1.44 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Arouca fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arouca attack 0.83 / defence 1.10 against Benfica attack 1.15 / defence 0.96, drawn from 45/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Arouca 30% | Draw 26% | Benfica 44%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arouca 59%, Benfica 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Arouca's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Benfica's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Benfica arrived the stronger side — 2.39 PPG against 1.16. That form edge translated into the three points. Arouca (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward. Benfica (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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