Zaglebie Lubin 0-1 Radomiak Radom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Radomiak Radom at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Zaglebie Lubin vs Radomiak Radom fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees Radomiak Radom travel to Stadion Zagłębia Lubin to take on Zaglebie Lubin. The game is scheduled for Sunday 21 August 2022, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Zaglebie Lubin have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: D L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Zaglebie Lubin have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Zaglebie Lubin at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Radomiak Radom — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Radomiak Radom have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Radomiak Radom have posted 2W 5D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Zaglebie Lubin 1.50 PPG, Radomiak Radom 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Zaglebie Lubin have won 1, Radomiak Radom 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 May 2022, ended 6–1 with Zaglebie Lubin winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Zaglebie Lubin in-play and half-time data (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Radomiak Radom in-play and half-time data (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zaglebie Lubin 49% versus Radomiak Radom 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zaglebie Lubin 56% | Radomiak Radom 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zaglebie Lubin 1.08 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.921 / defence 0.961 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.980 / defence 0.926. League average goals — home 1.265 / away 1.227. Data: 39 Zaglebie Lubin games / 39 Radomiak Radom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 34% | Draw 29% | Radomiak Radom 38%. Fair-value odds: Zaglebie Lubin 2.94 | Draw 3.45 | Radomiak Radom 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Radomiak Radom as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Radomiak Radom offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.23 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates are neutral: Zaglebie Lubin 60% | Radomiak Radom 50%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zaglebie Lubin vs Radomiak Radom | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stadion Zagłębia Lubin • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Aug 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 34% | Draw 29% | Radomiak Radom 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Zaglebie Lubin 1.08 / Radomiak Radom 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.921 / def 0.961 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.980 / def 0.926 | league avg home 1.265 / away 1.227 • Poisson stance: Radomiak Radom (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Radomiak Radom xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zaglebie Lubin vs Radomiak Radom kick off?
Zaglebie Lubin vs Radomiak Radom kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 21 August 2022 at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin.
What was the final score in Zaglebie Lubin vs Radomiak Radom?
Zaglebie Lubin 0 - 1 Radomiak Radom.
Where is Zaglebie Lubin vs Radomiak Radom being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin.
What competition is Zaglebie Lubin vs Radomiak Radom part of?
Zaglebie Lubin vs Radomiak Radom is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Zaglebie Lubin vs Radomiak Radom?
Our statistical model gives Zaglebie Lubin a 34% chance of winning, Radomiak Radom a 38% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Radomiak Radom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zaglebie Lubin vs Radomiak Radom?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Zaglebie Lubin and Radomiak Radom will score (BTTS).
Will Zaglebie Lubin vs Radomiak Radom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zaglebie Lubin and Radomiak Radom?
Record (2 meetings): Zaglebie Lubin 1W | Draws 0 | Radomiak Radom 1W.
What form are Zaglebie Lubin and Radomiak Radom in?
Zaglebie Lubin (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-D-W. Radomiak Radom (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Zaglebie Lubin's attack rating (0.92) and Radomiak Radom's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.08 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Radomiak Radom's attack versus Zaglebie Lubin's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.4%), 0-1 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Radomiak Radom Win
34%
2.97
29%
3.47
38%
2.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.4%
Away win
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Total xG
2.23
1.16
Radomiak Radom xG
2.97
34%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
2.66
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
31%
3.18
34%
2.94
Win to Nil
11%
9.45
13%
7.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 12.4 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.3 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 7.2 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zaglebie Lubin vs Radomiak Radom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Zaglebie Lubin and Radomiak Radom expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Zaglebie Lubin and 1.16 for Radomiak Radom, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Zaglebie Lubin vs Radomiak Radom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Zaglebie Lubin come into this having played 39 games, going 13W 7D 19L for 1.18 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-D-W. It's still early in the season for Zaglebie Lubin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Radomiak Radom sit at 1.44 PPG from 39 outings (13W 17D 9L), a run that reads D-D-L-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Zaglebie Lubin on 1.18 PPG, Radomiak Radom on 1.44. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Zaglebie Lubin's home form reads 7W 5D 7L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.37 PPG return.
Away from home, Radomiak Radom have taken 1.26 points per game from 19 outings (5W 9D 5L).
Goals in Recent Form
Zaglebie Lubin are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Radomiak Radom are on 1.28 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 39 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zaglebie Lubin
Early Season
Radomiak Radom
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zaglebie Lubin and Radomiak Radom in coming into this match?
Zaglebie Lubin have gone 13W 7D 19L in their last 39 games (1.18 PPG), while Radomiak Radom have gone 13W 17D 9L in their last 39 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zaglebie Lubin at home or Radomiak Radom away?
Zaglebie Lubin's home record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zaglebie Lubin at home: 1.37 PPG; Radomiak Radom away: 1.26 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 May 2022, when Zaglebie Lubin won 1-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Zaglebie Lubin's record when hosting Radomiak Radom specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Zaglebie Lubin
0
Draws
4
Radomiak Radom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zaglebie Lubin and Radomiak Radom?
From 10 meetings on record, Zaglebie Lubin have won 6, Radomiak Radom have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Zaglebie Lubin and Radomiak Radom last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Zaglebie Lubin 1-0 Radomiak Radom.
Who has won more matches between Zaglebie Lubin and Radomiak Radom?
Zaglebie Lubin have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Zaglebie Lubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zaglebie Lubin 63%, Radomiak Radom 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Zaglebie Lubin) and 37% (Radomiak Radom).
On the defensive side: Radomiak Radom in 32%; Zaglebie Lubin have failed to score in 26% of games; Radomiak Radom in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zaglebie Lubin home games / Radomiak Radom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zaglebie Lubin play Radomiak Radom?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Zaglebie Lubin's games and 47% of Radomiak Radom's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Zaglebie Lubin vs Radomiak Radom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Zaglebie Lubin's recent games and 37% of Radomiak Radom's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Zaglebie Lubin and Radomiak Radom tend to score early?
Zaglebie Lubin have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Radomiak Radom in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Radomiak Radom edge out Zaglebie Lubin 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Radomiak Radom beat Zaglebie Lubin 0-1 at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin, Regular Season - 6, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zaglebie Lubin 1.08 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.16 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Zaglebie Lubin fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.92 / defence 0.96 against Radomiak Radom attack 0.98 / defence 0.93, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zaglebie Lubin 34% | Draw 29% | Radomiak Radom 38%, with Radomiak Radom to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zaglebie Lubin 56%, Radomiak Radom 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Zaglebie Lubin 1.18 PPG, Radomiak Radom 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Radomiak Radom win broke the near-deadlock. Zaglebie Lubin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.37 scoring average — below par going forward. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.