Zaglebie Lubin 2-2 Pogon Szczecin – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Zaglebie Lubin at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogon Szczecin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 2 as Zaglebie Lubin welcome Pogon Szczecin to Stadion Zagłębia Lubin. Kick-off is set for Sunday 28 July 2024 at 13:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Zaglebie Lubin have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Zaglebie Lubin have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin, Zaglebie Lubin have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Pogon Szczecin — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L D W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Pogon Szczecin have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Pogon Szczecin have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Zaglebie Lubin) versus 1.70 (Pogon Szczecin). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Zaglebie Lubin, 3 for Pogon Szczecin and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Mar 2024, ended 2–0 with Zaglebie Lubin winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Zaglebie Lubin trading profile (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Pogon Szczecin trading profile (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zaglebie Lubin 54% versus Pogon Szczecin 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zaglebie Lubin 49% | Pogon Szczecin 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zaglebie Lubin 1.20 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.946 / defence 0.975 | Pogon Szczecin attack 1.035 / defence 0.900. League average goals — home 1.404 / away 1.133. Data: 35 Zaglebie Lubin games / 35 Pogon Szczecin games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 35% | Draw 33% | Pogon Szczecin 32%. Fair-value odds: Zaglebie Lubin 2.86 | Draw 3.03 | Pogon Szczecin 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Zaglebie Lubin are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Zaglebie Lubin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.34 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates corroborate: Zaglebie Lubin 60% | Pogon Szczecin 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (35 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogon Szczecin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stadion Zagłębia Lubin • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Jul 2024, 13:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 35% | Draw 33% | Pogon Szczecin 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 50% | xG Zaglebie Lubin 1.20 / Pogon Szczecin 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.946 / def 0.975 | Pogon Szczecin attack 1.035 / def 0.900 | league avg home 1.404 / away 1.133 • Poisson stance: Zaglebie Lubin (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Pogon Szczecin xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogon Szczecin kick off?
Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogon Szczecin kicked off at 13:45 on Sunday 28 July 2024 at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin.
What was the final score in Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogon Szczecin?
Zaglebie Lubin 2 - 2 Pogon Szczecin.
Where is Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogon Szczecin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin.
What competition is Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogon Szczecin part of?
Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogon Szczecin is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our statistical model gives Zaglebie Lubin a 35% chance of winning, Pogon Szczecin a 32% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Zaglebie Lubin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Zaglebie Lubin and Pogon Szczecin will score (BTTS).
Will Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogon Szczecin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zaglebie Lubin and Pogon Szczecin?
Record (6 meetings): Zaglebie Lubin 3W | Draws 0 | Pogon Szczecin 3W.
What form are Zaglebie Lubin and Pogon Szczecin in?
Zaglebie Lubin (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Zaglebie Lubin's attack at 0.95x the league average against Pogon Szczecin's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 1.20 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Pogon Szczecin's attack versus Zaglebie Lubin's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (35/35 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.3%), 1-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zaglebie Lubin Win
35%
2.88
33%
3.01
32%
3.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Total xG
2.34
1.14
Pogon Szczecin xG
2.88
35%
Home win
3.01
33%
Draw
3.11
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
32%
3.14
30%
3.31
Win to Nil
11%
9.05
10%
10.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 11.0 | 6.3 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.2 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 7.9 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Zaglebie Lubin and Pogon Szczecin expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Zaglebie Lubin and 1.14 for Pogon Szczecin, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogon Szczecin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Zaglebie Lubin come into this having played 35 games, going 13W 8D 14L for 1.34 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-L. It's still early in the season for Zaglebie Lubin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Pogon Szczecin sit at 1.66 PPG from 35 outings (17W 7D 11L), a run that reads W-L-D-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Pogon Szczecin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Zaglebie Lubin on 1.34 PPG, Pogon Szczecin on 1.66. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Zaglebie Lubin's home form reads 7W 5D 5L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.53 PPG return.
Away from home, Pogon Szczecin have taken 1.53 points per game from 17 outings (7W 5D 5L).
Goals in Recent Form
Zaglebie Lubin are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Pogon Szczecin are on 1.77 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Last 35 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zaglebie Lubin
Early Season
Pogon Szczecin
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zaglebie Lubin and Pogon Szczecin in coming into this match?
Zaglebie Lubin have gone 13W 8D 14L in their last 35 games (1.34 PPG), while Pogon Szczecin have gone 17W 7D 11L in their last 35 (1.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zaglebie Lubin at home or Pogon Szczecin away?
Zaglebie Lubin's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zaglebie Lubin at home: 1.53 PPG; Pogon Szczecin away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Zaglebie Lubin or Pogon Szczecin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Zaglebie Lubin have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Pogon Szczecin in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 15 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Pogon Szczecin have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Nov 2025, when Pogon Szczecin won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Zaglebie Lubin's record when hosting Pogon Szczecin specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Zaglebie Lubin
1
Draws
6
Pogon Szczecin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zaglebie Lubin and Pogon Szczecin?
From 10 meetings on record, Zaglebie Lubin have won 3, Pogon Szczecin have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Zaglebie Lubin and Pogon Szczecin last play each other?
They last met on 15 May 2026, when Zaglebie Lubin 0-1 Pogon Szczecin.
Who has won more matches between Zaglebie Lubin and Pogon Szczecin?
Pogon Szczecin have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Zaglebie Lubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Pogon Szczecin see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zaglebie Lubin 59%, Pogon Szczecin 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Zaglebie Lubin) and 41% (Pogon Szczecin).
On the defensive side: Zaglebie Lubin keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Pogon Szczecin in 41%; Pogon Szczecin in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zaglebie Lubin home games / Pogon Szczecin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zaglebie Lubin play Pogon Szczecin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Zaglebie Lubin's recent matches and 35% of Pogon Szczecin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogon Szczecin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Zaglebie Lubin's recent games and 41% of Pogon Szczecin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Zaglebie Lubin and Pogon Szczecin tend to score early?
Zaglebie Lubin have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Pogon Szczecin in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Zaglebie Lubin and Pogon Szczecin share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin, Regular Season - 2, as Zaglebie Lubin and Pogon Szczecin drew 2-2 in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zaglebie Lubin 1.20 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.14 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Zaglebie Lubin beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Pogon Szczecin outscored their 1.14 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.95 / defence 0.97 against Pogon Szczecin attack 1.03 / defence 0.90, drawn from 35/35 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Zaglebie Lubin 35% | Draw 33% | Pogon Szczecin 32%, with Zaglebie Lubin to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zaglebie Lubin 49%, Pogon Szczecin 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Zaglebie Lubin 1.34 PPG, Pogon Szczecin 1.66 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Zaglebie Lubin (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.76 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.