Zaglebie Lubin 1-1 Korona Kielce – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Zaglebie Lubin at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Zaglebie Lubin vs Korona Kielce fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Korona Kielce travel to Stadion Zagłębia Lubin to take on Zaglebie Lubin. The game is scheduled for Sunday 9 October 2022, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Zaglebie Lubin have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L D D W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Zaglebie Lubin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zaglebie Lubin's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Korona Kielce stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Korona Kielce, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Korona Kielce have posted 2W 1D 3L from 6 away outings — 1.17 PPG. Away from home they average 1.17 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game.
Zaglebie Lubin are in the better shape of the two on current Ekstraklasa data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Data
Zaglebie Lubin trading profile (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 20% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Korona Kielce trading profile (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zaglebie Lubin 46% versus Korona Kielce 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zaglebie Lubin 36% | Korona Kielce 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zaglebie Lubin 1.57 xG and Korona Kielce 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.900 / defence 0.949 | Korona Kielce attack 0.942 / defence 1.290. League average goals — home 1.353 / away 1.171. Korona Kielce bring a strong defensive rating of 1.290 — this is suppressing Zaglebie Lubin's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 45 Zaglebie Lubin games / 11 Korona Kielce games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 49% | Draw 25% | Korona Kielce 25%. Fair-value odds: Zaglebie Lubin 2.04 | Draw 4.00 | Korona Kielce 4.00. Zaglebie Lubin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Zaglebie Lubin as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Zaglebie Lubin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.62 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Zaglebie Lubin 60% | Korona Kielce 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zaglebie Lubin vs Korona Kielce | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stadion Zagłębia Lubin • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Oct 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 49% | Draw 25% | Korona Kielce 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 51% | xG Zaglebie Lubin 1.57 / Korona Kielce 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.900 / def 0.949 | Korona Kielce attack 0.942 / def 1.290 | league avg home 1.353 / away 1.171 • Poisson stance: Zaglebie Lubin (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Korona Kielce xG
51%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zaglebie Lubin vs Korona Kielce kick off?
Zaglebie Lubin vs Korona Kielce kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 9 October 2022 at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin.
What was the final score in Zaglebie Lubin vs Korona Kielce?
Zaglebie Lubin 1 - 1 Korona Kielce.
Where is Zaglebie Lubin vs Korona Kielce being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin.
What competition is Zaglebie Lubin vs Korona Kielce part of?
Zaglebie Lubin vs Korona Kielce is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Zaglebie Lubin vs Korona Kielce?
Our statistical model gives Zaglebie Lubin a 49% chance of winning, Korona Kielce a 25% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Zaglebie Lubin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zaglebie Lubin vs Korona Kielce?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Zaglebie Lubin and Korona Kielce will score (BTTS).
Will Zaglebie Lubin vs Korona Kielce have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zaglebie Lubin and Korona Kielce?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Zaglebie Lubin and Korona Kielce in?
Zaglebie Lubin (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-D-W-W. Korona Kielce (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Zaglebie Lubin's attack rating (0.90) and Korona Kielce's defence rating (1.29), the model arrives at 1.57 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Korona Kielce's attack versus Zaglebie Lubin's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.9%), 2-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zaglebie Lubin Win
49%
2.02
25%
3.96
25%
3.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Total xG
2.62
1.05
Korona Kielce xG
2.02
49%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
3.95
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
21%
4.80
Win to Nil
17%
5.76
5%
18.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 7.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 12.0 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zaglebie Lubin vs Korona Kielce?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Zaglebie Lubin and Korona Kielce expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Zaglebie Lubin and 1.05 for Korona Kielce, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Zaglebie Lubin vs Korona Kielce?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Zaglebie Lubin come into this having played 11 games, going 4W 4D 3L for 1.45 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-W-W. The sample for Zaglebie Lubin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Korona Kielce sit at 1.00 PPG from 11 outings (3W 2D 6L), a run that reads W-L-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Korona Kielce is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Zaglebie Lubin carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.45 PPG clear of Korona Kielce — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Zaglebie Lubin's home form reads 1W 3D 1L across 5 games on their own ground, a 1.20 PPG return.
Away from home, Korona Kielce have taken 1.40 points per game from 5 outings (2W 1D 2L).
The Goals Picture
Zaglebie Lubin are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Korona Kielce are on 1.18 scored and 1.55 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Korona Kielce in 64%.
Last 11 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zaglebie Lubin
Blended
Korona Kielce
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zaglebie Lubin and Korona Kielce in coming into this match?
Zaglebie Lubin have gone 4W 4D 3L in their last 11 games (1.45 PPG), while Korona Kielce have gone 3W 2D 6L in their last 11 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zaglebie Lubin at home or Korona Kielce away?
Korona Kielce's away record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zaglebie Lubin at home: 1.20 PPG; Korona Kielce away: 1.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Zaglebie Lubin and Korona Kielce runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 6 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Zaglebie Lubin's record when hosting Korona Kielce specifically: 1W 3D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Zaglebie Lubin
4
Draws
2
Korona Kielce
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zaglebie Lubin and Korona Kielce?
From 8 meetings on record, Zaglebie Lubin have won 2, Korona Kielce have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Zaglebie Lubin and Korona Kielce last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2026, when Korona Kielce 1-2 Zaglebie Lubin.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Zaglebie Lubin tend to start slowly — only 20% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Korona Kielce are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zaglebie Lubin 60%, Korona Kielce 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 20% (Zaglebie Lubin) and 60% (Korona Kielce).
On the defensive side: Korona Kielce in 40%; Zaglebie Lubin have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zaglebie Lubin home games / Korona Kielce away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zaglebie Lubin play Korona Kielce?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Zaglebie Lubin's games and 60% of Korona Kielce's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Zaglebie Lubin vs Korona Kielce usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Zaglebie Lubin's recent games and 60% of Korona Kielce's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Zaglebie Lubin and Korona Kielce tend to score early?
Zaglebie Lubin have had a goal before half-time in 20% of their recent matches, Korona Kielce in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Zaglebie Lubin and Korona Kielce share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin, Regular Season - 12, as Zaglebie Lubin and Korona Kielce drew 1-1 in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zaglebie Lubin 1.57 xG and Korona Kielce 1.05 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.90 / defence 0.95 against Korona Kielce attack 0.94 / defence 1.29, drawn from 45/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zaglebie Lubin 49% | Draw 25% | Korona Kielce 25%, with Zaglebie Lubin to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zaglebie Lubin 36%, Korona Kielce 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Korona Kielce's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Zaglebie Lubin arrived the stronger side — 1.45 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.