Zaglebie Lubin 3-1 Górnik Łęczna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Zaglebie Lubin at 38%, yet in-form Górnik Łęczna provide a compelling counter-argument — this Zaglebie Lubin vs Górnik Łęczna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Zagłębia Lubin plays host to Zaglebie Lubin versus Górnik Łęczna in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off: Friday 30 July 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Zaglebie Lubin have collected 0.00 PPG across 1 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 0W 0D 1L. Last five: L. They are averaging 0.00 goals per game and conceding 3.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 3.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Zaglebie Lubin have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Górnik Łęczna's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 0W 1D 0L from 1 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Górnik Łęczna have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On a straight form reading, Górnik Łęczna are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (1.00 vs 0.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zaglebie Lubin 1.16 xG and Górnik Łęczna 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.979 / defence 1.150 | Górnik Łęczna attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.027 / away 0.892. Data: 1 Zaglebie Lubin games / 1 Górnik Łęczna games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 38% | Draw 38% | Górnik Łęczna 24%. Fair-value odds: Zaglebie Lubin 2.63 | Draw 2.63 | Górnik Łęczna 4.17. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 38% and away win at 24% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.03 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zaglebie Lubin vs Górnik Łęczna | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stadion Zagłębia Lubin • Kick-off: Friday 30 Jul 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 38% | Draw 38% | Górnik Łęczna 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 44% | xG Zaglebie Lubin 1.16 / Górnik Łęczna 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.979 / def 1.150 | Górnik Łęczna attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.027 / away 0.892 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Górnik Łęczna xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zaglebie Lubin vs Górnik Łęczna kick off?
Zaglebie Lubin vs Górnik Łęczna kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 30 July 2021 at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin.
What was the final score in Zaglebie Lubin vs Górnik Łęczna?
Zaglebie Lubin 3 - 1 Górnik Łęczna.
Where is Zaglebie Lubin vs Górnik Łęczna being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin.
What competition is Zaglebie Lubin vs Górnik Łęczna part of?
Zaglebie Lubin vs Górnik Łęczna is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Zaglebie Lubin vs Górnik Łęczna?
Our statistical model gives Zaglebie Lubin a 38% chance of winning, Górnik Łęczna a 24% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Zaglebie Lubin vs Górnik Łęczna?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Zaglebie Lubin and Górnik Łęczna will score (BTTS).
Will Zaglebie Lubin vs Górnik Łęczna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zaglebie Lubin and Górnik Łęczna?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Zaglebie Lubin and Górnik Łęczna in?
Zaglebie Lubin (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 3.00 | L5 L. Górnik Łęczna (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Zaglebie Lubin's attack at 0.98x the league average against Górnik Łęczna's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.16 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Górnik Łęczna's attack (0.85x) against Zaglebie Lubin's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 0.87.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.9%), 1-0 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zaglebie Lubin Win
38%
2.61
38%
2.62
24%
4.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Total xG
2.03
0.87
Górnik Łęczna xG
2.61
38%
Home win
2.62
38%
Draw
4.24
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
42%
2.39
31%
3.18
Win to Nil
16%
6.24
7%
13.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.1 | 11.5 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.2 | 13.3 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 7.7 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zaglebie Lubin vs Górnik Łęczna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Zaglebie Lubin and Górnik Łęczna expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Zaglebie Lubin and 0.87 for Górnik Łęczna, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Zaglebie Lubin vs Górnik Łęczna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Zaglebie Lubin come into this having played 1 games, going 0W 0D 1L for 0.00 points per game. Their last five reads L. It's still early in the season for Zaglebie Lubin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Górnik Łęczna sit at 1.00 PPG from 1 outings (0W 1D 0L), a run that reads D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Górnik Łęczna, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Górnik Łęczna carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Zaglebie Lubin — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Zaglebie Lubin are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game recently; Górnik Łęczna are on 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Zaglebie Lubin have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Górnik Łęczna in 100%.
Last 1 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zaglebie Lubin
Early Season
Górnik Łęczna
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zaglebie Lubin and Górnik Łęczna in coming into this match?
Zaglebie Lubin have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 games (0.00 PPG), while Górnik Łęczna have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 (1.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 December 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Zaglebie Lubin
0
Draws
1
Górnik Łęczna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zaglebie Lubin and Górnik Łęczna?
From 2 meetings on record, Zaglebie Lubin have won 1, Górnik Łęczna have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Zaglebie Lubin and Górnik Łęczna last play each other?
They last met on 19 December 2021, when Górnik Łęczna 2-1 Zaglebie Lubin.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zaglebie Lubin home games / Górnik Łęczna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zaglebie Lubin play Górnik Łęczna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Zaglebie Lubin's recent matches and 100% of Górnik Łęczna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Zaglebie Lubin vs Górnik Łęczna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 100% of Zaglebie Lubin's recent games and 0% of Górnik Łęczna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Zaglebie Lubin and Górnik Łęczna tend to score early?
Zaglebie Lubin have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Górnik Łęczna in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Zaglebie Lubin cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Górnik Łęczna.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zaglebie Lubin beat Górnik Łęczna 3-1 at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin, Regular Season - 2, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zaglebie Lubin 1.16 xG and Górnik Łęczna 0.87 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Zaglebie Lubin beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.98 / defence 1.15 against Górnik Łęczna attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Zaglebie Lubin 38% | Draw 38% | Górnik Łęczna 24%, with Zaglebie Lubin to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zaglebie Lubin 100%, Górnik Łęczna 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Górnik Łęczna arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.00. Form was overturned, with Zaglebie Lubin winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Zaglebie Lubin scored 3 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line. Górnik Łęczna shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.