Zaglebie Lubin 1-1 Cracovia Krakow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cracovia Krakow at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Zaglebie Lubin vs Cracovia Krakow fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Zaglebie Lubin host Cracovia Krakow at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 24 October 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Zaglebie Lubin — All Games: 5W 0D 5L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W W W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Zaglebie Lubin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Zaglebie Lubin have posted 3W 0D 2L at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Cracovia Krakow have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D W D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Cracovia Krakow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cracovia Krakow's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 2L across 6 road games this term (1.33 PPG). Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Zaglebie Lubin at 1.50 PPG versus Cracovia Krakow's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Zaglebie Lubin register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Cracovia Krakow in 67% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
Zaglebie Lubin in-play and half-time data (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Cracovia Krakow in-play and half-time data (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 30% of cases; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zaglebie Lubin 40% versus Cracovia Krakow 70%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Zaglebie Lubin 60% | Cracovia Krakow 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zaglebie Lubin 1.33 xG and Cracovia Krakow 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.915 / defence 1.167 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.958 / defence 1.177. League average goals — home 1.238 / away 1.256. Data: 10 Zaglebie Lubin games / 11 Cracovia Krakow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 36% | Draw 26% | Cracovia Krakow 39%. Fair-value odds: Zaglebie Lubin 2.78 | Draw 3.85 | Cracovia Krakow 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cracovia Krakow at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cracovia Krakow offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.74 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Zaglebie Lubin 60% | Cracovia Krakow 67% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zaglebie Lubin vs Cracovia Krakow | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stadion Zagłębia Lubin • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Oct 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 36% | Draw 26% | Cracovia Krakow 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Zaglebie Lubin 1.33 / Cracovia Krakow 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.915 / def 1.167 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.958 / def 1.177 | league avg home 1.238 / away 1.256 • Poisson stance: Cracovia Krakow (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Cracovia Krakow xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zaglebie Lubin vs Cracovia Krakow kick off?
Zaglebie Lubin vs Cracovia Krakow kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 24 October 2021 at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin.
What was the final score in Zaglebie Lubin vs Cracovia Krakow?
Zaglebie Lubin 1 - 1 Cracovia Krakow.
Where is Zaglebie Lubin vs Cracovia Krakow being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin.
What competition is Zaglebie Lubin vs Cracovia Krakow part of?
Zaglebie Lubin vs Cracovia Krakow is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Zaglebie Lubin vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our statistical model gives Zaglebie Lubin a 36% chance of winning, Cracovia Krakow a 39% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Cracovia Krakow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zaglebie Lubin vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Zaglebie Lubin and Cracovia Krakow will score (BTTS).
Will Zaglebie Lubin vs Cracovia Krakow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zaglebie Lubin and Cracovia Krakow?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Zaglebie Lubin and Cracovia Krakow in?
Zaglebie Lubin (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. Cracovia Krakow (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Zaglebie Lubin's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Cracovia Krakow's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.33. The same calculation in reverse, Cracovia Krakow's attack versus Zaglebie Lubin's defence, projects 1.40 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cracovia Krakow Win
36%
2.81
26%
3.91
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Total xG
2.74
1.40
Cracovia Krakow xG
2.81
36%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
25%
4.07
26%
3.80
Win to Nil
9%
11.44
10%
9.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 9.1 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.1 | 8.5 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.1 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zaglebie Lubin vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Zaglebie Lubin and Cracovia Krakow expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Zaglebie Lubin and 1.40 for Cracovia Krakow, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Zaglebie Lubin vs Cracovia Krakow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Zaglebie Lubin's recent record stands at 5W 0D 5L from 10 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Zaglebie Lubin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cracovia Krakow, meanwhile, have gone 4W 3D 3L across 10 games — 1.50 PPG, with D-D-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Cracovia Krakow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Zaglebie Lubin on 1.50 PPG, Cracovia Krakow on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Zaglebie Lubin have managed 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — 1.80 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cracovia Krakow's away record stands at 2W 1D 2L across 5 trips, a 1.40 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zaglebie Lubin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Zaglebie Lubin are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Cracovia Krakow are on 1.70 scored and 1.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cracovia Krakow in 70%.
Last 10 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zaglebie Lubin
Blended
Cracovia Krakow
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zaglebie Lubin and Cracovia Krakow in coming into this match?
Zaglebie Lubin have gone 5W 0D 5L in their last 10 games (1.50 PPG), while Cracovia Krakow have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zaglebie Lubin at home or Cracovia Krakow away?
Zaglebie Lubin's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zaglebie Lubin at home: 1.80 PPG; Cracovia Krakow away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Zaglebie Lubin or Cracovia Krakow been keeping clean sheets recently?
Zaglebie Lubin have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Cracovia Krakow in 10%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Zaglebie Lubin and Cracovia Krakow runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Zaglebie Lubin's record when hosting Cracovia Krakow specifically: 0W 3D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Zaglebie Lubin
5
Draws
4
Cracovia Krakow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zaglebie Lubin and Cracovia Krakow?
From 10 meetings on record, Zaglebie Lubin have won 1, Cracovia Krakow have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Zaglebie Lubin and Cracovia Krakow last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Zaglebie Lubin 0-0 Cracovia Krakow.
Who has won more matches between Zaglebie Lubin and Cracovia Krakow?
Cracovia Krakow have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Zaglebie Lubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Cracovia Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zaglebie Lubin 60%, Cracovia Krakow 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Zaglebie Lubin and 60% for Cracovia Krakow. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cracovia Krakow in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zaglebie Lubin home games / Cracovia Krakow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zaglebie Lubin play Cracovia Krakow?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Zaglebie Lubin's games and 60% of Cracovia Krakow's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Zaglebie Lubin vs Cracovia Krakow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Zaglebie Lubin's matches and 60% of Cracovia Krakow's.
Do Zaglebie Lubin and Cracovia Krakow tend to score early?
Zaglebie Lubin have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Cracovia Krakow in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Zaglebie Lubin and Cracovia Krakow share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zaglebie Lubin and Cracovia Krakow finished level at 1-1 at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin, Regular Season - 12, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zaglebie Lubin 1.33 xG and Cracovia Krakow 1.40 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.92 / defence 1.17 against Cracovia Krakow attack 0.96 / defence 1.18, drawn from 10/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zaglebie Lubin 36% | Draw 26% | Cracovia Krakow 39%, with Cracovia Krakow to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zaglebie Lubin 60%, Cracovia Krakow 70%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Zaglebie Lubin 1.50 PPG, Cracovia Krakow 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Cracovia Krakow (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.