Wisla Plock vs Wisla Krakow – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Wisla Plock at 46%, yet in-form Wisla Krakow provide a compelling counter-argument — this Wisla Plock vs Wisla Krakow fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Wisla Krakow travel to Orlen Stadion to take on Wisla Plock. The game is scheduled for Saturday 6 February 2027, 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Wisla Plock stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Wisla Plock, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wisla Plock at Orlen Stadion this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Wisla Krakow — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Wisla Krakow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Wisla Krakow have gone 0W 3D 4L from 7 away fixtures this term (0.43 PPG). Away from home they average 1.14 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.43 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Wisla Krakow are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Wisla Plock, 1 for Wisla Krakow and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 7 Aug 2026, ended 1–2 with Wisla Krakow winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Wisla Plock in-play tendencies (14 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Wisla Krakow in-play tendencies (14 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Wisla Plock 50% and Wisla Krakow 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wisla Plock 57% | Wisla Krakow 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wisla Plock 1.48 xG and Wisla Krakow 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wisla Plock attack 0.832 / defence 0.963 | Wisla Krakow attack 0.815 / defence 1.106. League average goals — home 1.606 / away 1.292. Data: 46 Wisla Plock games / 13 Wisla Krakow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wisla Plock 46% | Draw 31% | Wisla Krakow 24%. Fair-value odds: Wisla Plock 2.17 | Draw 3.23 | Wisla Krakow 4.17. Wisla Plock hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Wisla Plock are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Wisla Krakow (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wisla Plock offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.49 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: Wisla Plock 20% | Wisla Krakow 71%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wisla Plock vs Wisla Krakow | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Orlen Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Feb 2027, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wisla Plock 46% | Draw 31% | Wisla Krakow 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Wisla Plock 1.48 / Wisla Krakow 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Wisla Plock attack 0.832 / def 0.963 | Wisla Krakow attack 0.815 / def 1.106 | league avg home 1.606 / away 1.292 • Poisson stance: Wisla Plock (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Wisla Plock xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Wisla Krakow xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wisla Plock vs Wisla Krakow kick off?
Wisla Plock vs Wisla Krakow is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Saturday 6 February 2027 at Orlen Stadion.
Where is Wisla Plock vs Wisla Krakow being played?
The match is being played at Orlen Stadion.
What competition is Wisla Plock vs Wisla Krakow part of?
Wisla Plock vs Wisla Krakow is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Wisla Plock vs Wisla Krakow?
Our statistical model gives Wisla Plock a 46% chance of winning, Wisla Krakow a 24% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Wisla Plock the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wisla Plock vs Wisla Krakow?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Wisla Plock and Wisla Krakow will score (BTTS).
Will Wisla Plock vs Wisla Krakow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Plock and Wisla Krakow?
Record (3 meetings): Wisla Plock 2W | Draws 0 | Wisla Krakow 1W.
What form are Wisla Plock and Wisla Krakow in?
Wisla Plock (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. Wisla Krakow (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Wisla Plock's attack rating (0.83) and Wisla Krakow's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.48 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Wisla Krakow's attack versus Wisla Plock's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 0-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wisla Plock Win
46%
2.19
31%
3.25
24%
4.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Wisla Plock xG
Total xG
2.49
1.01
Wisla Krakow xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
4.23
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.94
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
23%
4.38
Win to Nil
17%
6.05
5%
18.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 8.4 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 12.4 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wisla Plock vs Wisla Krakow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Wisla Plock and Wisla Krakow expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Wisla Plock and 1.01 for Wisla Krakow, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Wisla Plock vs Wisla Krakow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Wisla Plock come into this having played 14 games, going 4W 4D 6L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-D-L. The sample for Wisla Plock is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Wisla Krakow sit at 1.71 PPG from 14 outings (7W 3D 4L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Wisla Krakow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Wisla Krakow carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.57 PPG clear of Wisla Plock — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Wisla Plock's home form reads 2W 2D 1L across 5 games on their own ground, a 1.60 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.14 PPG overall — Wisla Plock are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Wisla Krakow have taken 0.60 points per game from 5 outings (0W 3D 2L). That's a step down from their 1.71 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Wisla Krakow's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wisla Plock come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Wisla Plock are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Wisla Krakow are on 1.57 scored and 1.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wisla Krakow in 71%.
Last 14 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wisla Plock
Blended
Wisla Krakow
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wisla Plock and Wisla Krakow in coming into this match?
Wisla Plock have gone 4W 4D 6L in their last 14 games (1.14 PPG), while Wisla Krakow have gone 7W 3D 4L in their last 14 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wisla Plock at home or Wisla Krakow away?
Wisla Plock's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wisla Plock at home: 1.60 PPG; Wisla Krakow away: 0.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Wisla Plock and Wisla Krakow runs to 3 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 7 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Last 3 Meetings
2
Wisla Plock
0
Draws
1
Wisla Krakow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Plock and Wisla Krakow?
From 3 meetings on record, Wisla Plock have won 2, Wisla Krakow have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Wisla Plock and Wisla Krakow last play each other?
They last met on 7 August 2026, when Wisla Krakow 2-1 Wisla Plock.
Who has won more matches between Wisla Plock and Wisla Krakow?
Wisla Plock have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Wisla Plock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Wisla Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wisla Plock 40%, Wisla Krakow 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Wisla Plock) and 40% (Wisla Krakow).
On the defensive side: Wisla Plock keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Wisla Plock have failed to score in 40% of games; Wisla Krakow in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wisla Plock home games / Wisla Krakow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wisla Plock play Wisla Krakow?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Wisla Plock's recent matches and 60% of Wisla Krakow's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Wisla Plock vs Wisla Krakow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Wisla Plock's recent games and 40% of Wisla Krakow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wisla Plock and Wisla Krakow tend to score early?
Wisla Plock have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Wisla Krakow in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.