Wisla Plock 1-1 Widzew Łódź – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wisla Plock at 40%, yet in-form Widzew Łódź provide a compelling counter-argument — this Wisla Plock vs Widzew Łódź fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 24 as Wisla Plock welcome Widzew Łódź to Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego. Kick-off is set for Monday 13 March 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Wisla Plock have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Wisla Plock, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego, Wisla Plock have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Wisla Plock are significantly better at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Widzew Łódź stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Widzew Łódź, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Widzew Łódź's away record: 5W 3D 2L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 1.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form points away from home here. Widzew Łódź's 1.30 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Wisla Plock's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Wisla Plock, 1 for Widzew Łódź and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 27 Aug 2022, ended 1–2 with Widzew Łódź winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Wisla Plock trading profile (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Widzew Łódź trading profile (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 36% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wisla Plock 56% versus Widzew Łódź 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wisla Plock 52% | Widzew Łódź 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wisla Plock 1.03 xG and Widzew Łódź 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wisla Plock attack 0.847 / defence 0.831 | Widzew Łódź attack 0.897 / defence 0.977. League average goals — home 1.247 / away 1.064. Data: 57 Wisla Plock games / 23 Widzew Łódź games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wisla Plock 40% | Draw 33% | Widzew Łódź 27%. Fair-value odds: Wisla Plock 2.50 | Draw 3.03 | Widzew Łódź 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.83. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.83 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Wisla Plock at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Widzew Łódź (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wisla Plock offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.83 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 28% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 36% on No. Form rates corroborate: Wisla Plock 50% | Widzew Łódź 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wisla Plock vs Widzew Łódź | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego • Kick-off: Monday 13 Mar 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wisla Plock 40% | Draw 33% | Widzew Łódź 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 36% | xG Wisla Plock 1.03 / Widzew Łódź 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Wisla Plock attack 0.847 / def 0.831 | Widzew Łódź attack 0.897 / def 0.977 | league avg home 1.247 / away 1.064 • Poisson stance: Wisla Plock (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Wisla Plock xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Widzew Łódź xG
36%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wisla Plock vs Widzew Łódź kick off?
Wisla Plock vs Widzew Łódź kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 13 March 2023 at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego.
What was the final score in Wisla Plock vs Widzew Łódź?
Wisla Plock 1 - 1 Widzew Łódź.
Where is Wisla Plock vs Widzew Łódź being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego.
What competition is Wisla Plock vs Widzew Łódź part of?
Wisla Plock vs Widzew Łódź is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Wisla Plock vs Widzew Łódź?
Our statistical model gives Wisla Plock a 40% chance of winning, Widzew Łódź a 27% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Wisla Plock the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wisla Plock vs Widzew Łódź?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Wisla Plock and Widzew Łódź will score (BTTS).
Will Wisla Plock vs Widzew Łódź have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Plock and Widzew Łódź?
Record (1 meetings): Wisla Plock 0W | Draws 0 | Widzew Łódź 1W.
What form are Wisla Plock and Widzew Łódź in?
Wisla Plock (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Widzew Łódź (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Wisla Plock's attack at 0.85x the league average against Widzew Łódź's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.03 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Widzew Łódź's attack versus Wisla Plock's defence, projects 0.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (14.9%), 1-1 (14.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wisla Plock Win
40%
2.50
33%
3.04
27%
3.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.1%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Wisla Plock xG
Total xG
1.83
0.79
Widzew Łódź xG
2.50
40%
Home win
3.04
33%
Draw
3.70
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.81
64%
BTTS No
1.55
Clean Sheet
45%
2.21
36%
2.81
Win to Nil
18%
5.52
10%
10.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.1 | 12.8 | 5.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.6 | 13.2 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 8.6 | 6.8 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wisla Plock vs Widzew Łódź?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.8%.
How many goals are Wisla Plock and Widzew Łódź expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Wisla Plock and 0.79 for Widzew Łódź, a combined total of 1.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Wisla Plock vs Widzew Łódź?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Wisla Plock's recent record stands at 9W 4D 10L from 23 games, a 1.35 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Wisla Plock is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Widzew Łódź, meanwhile, have gone 10W 6D 7L across 23 games — 1.57 PPG, with D-D-W-D-L in their last five. The sample for Widzew Łódź is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Wisla Plock on 1.35 PPG, Widzew Łódź on 1.57. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Wisla Plock have managed 7W 1D 3L from 11 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.35 PPG overall — Wisla Plock are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Widzew Łódź's away record stands at 5W 3D 3L across 11 trips, a 1.64 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Wisla Plock are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Widzew Łódź are on 1.26 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Defensively: Widzew Łódź in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 23 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wisla Plock
Blended
Widzew Łódź
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wisla Plock and Widzew Łódź in coming into this match?
Wisla Plock have gone 9W 4D 10L in their last 23 games (1.35 PPG), while Widzew Łódź have gone 10W 6D 7L in their last 23 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wisla Plock at home or Widzew Łódź away?
Wisla Plock's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wisla Plock at home: 2.00 PPG; Widzew Łódź away: 1.64 PPG.
Have Wisla Plock or Widzew Łódź been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wisla Plock have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Widzew Łódź in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Wisla Plock and Widzew Łódź runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 31 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Wisla Plock's record when hosting Widzew Łódź specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
0
Wisla Plock
3
Draws
2
Widzew Łódź
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Plock and Widzew Łódź?
From 5 meetings on record, Wisla Plock have won 0, Widzew Łódź have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Wisla Plock and Widzew Łódź last play each other?
They last met on 31 July 2026, when Wisla Plock 0-0 Widzew Łódź.
Who has won more matches between Wisla Plock and Widzew Łódź?
Widzew Łódź have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Wisla Plock see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Widzew Łódź see a goal before the break in 36% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wisla Plock 46%, Widzew Łódź 27% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Wisla Plock) and 46% (Widzew Łódź).
On the defensive side: Wisla Plock keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Widzew Łódź in 54%; Widzew Łódź in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wisla Plock home games / Widzew Łódź away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wisla Plock play Widzew Łódź?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Wisla Plock's recent matches and 27% of Widzew Łódź's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Wisla Plock vs Widzew Łódź usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Wisla Plock's recent games and 46% of Widzew Łódź's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Wisla Plock and Widzew Łódź share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wisla Plock and Widzew Łódź finished level at 1-1 at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego, Regular Season - 24, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wisla Plock 1.03 xG and Widzew Łódź 0.79 xG, a combined 1.83. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wisla Plock attack 0.85 / defence 0.83 against Widzew Łódź attack 0.90 / defence 0.98, drawn from 57/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wisla Plock 40% | Draw 33% | Widzew Łódź 27%, with Wisla Plock to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wisla Plock 52%, Widzew Łódź 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wisla Plock's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Widzew Łódź's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Wisla Plock 1.35 PPG, Widzew Łódź 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.