Wisla Plock vs Raków Częstochowa – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wisla Plock at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wisla Plock vs Raków Częstochowa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Orlen Stadion plays host to Wisla Plock versus Raków Częstochowa in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Saturday 12 December 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Wisla Plock (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Wisla Plock, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wisla Plock at Orlen Stadion this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Raków Częstochowa's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 3W 0D 7L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L L W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.30. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Raków Częstochowa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Raków Częstochowa have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Wisla Plock against 0.90 for Raków Częstochowa. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 7 meetings: Wisla Plock 3W, Raków Częstochowa 3W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.4 per game across 7 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 26 Jul 2026, ended 2–1 with Wisla Plock winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Wisla Plock goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Raków Częstochowa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wisla Plock 46% versus Raków Częstochowa 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wisla Plock 39% | Raków Częstochowa 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wisla Plock 1.38 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wisla Plock attack 0.831 / defence 0.953 | Raków Częstochowa attack 1.004 / defence 1.051. League average goals — home 1.576 / away 1.316. Data: 46 Wisla Plock games / 46 Raków Częstochowa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wisla Plock 37% | Draw 31% | Raków Częstochowa 32%. Fair-value odds: Wisla Plock 2.70 | Draw 3.23 | Raków Częstochowa 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Wisla Plock at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Wisla Plock if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.63 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Wisla Plock 20% | Raków Częstochowa 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wisla Plock vs Raków Częstochowa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Orlen Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Dec 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wisla Plock 37% | Draw 31% | Raków Częstochowa 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 56% | xG Wisla Plock 1.38 / Raków Częstochowa 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Wisla Plock attack 0.831 / def 0.953 | Raków Częstochowa attack 1.004 / def 1.051 | league avg home 1.576 / away 1.316 • Poisson stance: Wisla Plock (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Wisla Plock xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Raków Częstochowa xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wisla Plock vs Raków Częstochowa kick off?
Wisla Plock vs Raków Częstochowa is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Saturday 12 December 2026 at Orlen Stadion.
Where is Wisla Plock vs Raków Częstochowa being played?
The match is being played at Orlen Stadion.
What competition is Wisla Plock vs Raków Częstochowa part of?
Wisla Plock vs Raków Częstochowa is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Wisla Plock vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our statistical model gives Wisla Plock a 37% chance of winning, Raków Częstochowa a 32% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Wisla Plock the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wisla Plock vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Wisla Plock and Raków Częstochowa will score (BTTS).
Will Wisla Plock vs Raków Częstochowa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Plock and Raków Częstochowa?
Record (7 meetings): Wisla Plock 3W | Draws 1 | Raków Częstochowa 3W.
What form are Wisla Plock and Raków Częstochowa in?
Wisla Plock (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-W-L-D. Raków Częstochowa (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Wisla Plock's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Raków Częstochowa's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.38. Flip it around — Raków Częstochowa's attack (1.00x) against Wisla Plock's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.8%), 2-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wisla Plock Win
37%
2.70
31%
3.18
32%
3.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Wisla Plock xG
Total xG
2.63
1.26
Raków Częstochowa xG
2.70
37%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
3.17
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
28%
3.52
25%
3.96
Win to Nil
11%
9.50
8%
12.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 9.0 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.4 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.6 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.9 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wisla Plock vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Wisla Plock and Raków Częstochowa expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Wisla Plock and 1.26 for Raków Częstochowa, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Wisla Plock vs Raków Częstochowa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Wisla Plock's recent record stands at 16W 13D 17L from 46 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Wisla Plock is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Raków Częstochowa, meanwhile, have gone 18W 7D 21L across 46 games — 1.33 PPG, with L-L-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Raków Częstochowa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Wisla Plock against 1.33 for Raków Częstochowa. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Wisla Plock have managed 10W 5D 7L from 22 games — 1.59 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Raków Częstochowa's away record stands at 8W 3D 11L across 22 trips, a 1.23 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Wisla Plock are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Raków Częstochowa are on 1.50 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Raków Częstochowa in 67%.
Last 46 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wisla Plock
Blended
Raków Częstochowa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wisla Plock and Raków Częstochowa in coming into this match?
Wisla Plock have gone 16W 13D 17L in their last 46 games (1.33 PPG), while Raków Częstochowa have gone 18W 7D 21L in their last 46 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wisla Plock at home or Raków Częstochowa away?
Wisla Plock's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wisla Plock at home: 1.59 PPG; Raków Częstochowa away: 1.23 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 26 July 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Wisla Plock go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Raków Częstochowa won 7-1 on 5 Nov 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Wisla Plock have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Raków Częstochowa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Wisla Plock
1
Draws
3
Raków Częstochowa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Plock and Raków Częstochowa?
From 7 meetings on record, Wisla Plock have won 3, Raków Częstochowa have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Wisla Plock and Raków Częstochowa last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when Raków Częstochowa 1-2 Wisla Plock.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Wisla Plock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Raków Częstochowa see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wisla Plock 27%, Raków Częstochowa 77% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Wisla Plock) and 68% (Raków Częstochowa).
On the defensive side: Wisla Plock keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Wisla Plock have failed to score in 46% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wisla Plock home games / Raków Częstochowa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wisla Plock play Raków Częstochowa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 27% of Wisla Plock's recent matches and 77% of Raków Częstochowa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Wisla Plock vs Raków Częstochowa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Wisla Plock's recent games and 68% of Raków Częstochowa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wisla Plock and Raków Częstochowa tend to score early?
Wisla Plock have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Raków Częstochowa in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.