Wisla Plock 2-1 Legia Warszawa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wisla Plock at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wisla Plock vs Legia Warszawa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego plays host to Wisla Plock versus Legia Warszawa in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Friday 14 October 2022 at 19:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Wisla Plock have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D L L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Wisla Plock, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wisla Plock's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Legia Warszawa (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: W L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Legia Warszawa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Legia Warszawa away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Legia Warszawa are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.50). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Wisla Plock 1W, Legia Warszawa 1W, 0D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Dec 2021, ended 1–0 with Wisla Plock winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Wisla Plock goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Legia Warszawa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wisla Plock 54% versus Legia Warszawa 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wisla Plock 59% | Legia Warszawa 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wisla Plock 1.57 xG and Legia Warszawa 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wisla Plock attack 1.136 / defence 0.819 | Legia Warszawa attack 0.820 / defence 1.054. League average goals — home 1.313 / away 1.168. Data: 46 Wisla Plock games / 46 Legia Warszawa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wisla Plock 56% | Draw 25% | Legia Warszawa 19%. Fair-value odds: Wisla Plock 1.79 | Draw 4.00 | Legia Warszawa 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Wisla Plock (56%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Wisla Plock as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Legia Warszawa (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.36 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Wisla Plock 50% | Legia Warszawa 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wisla Plock vs Legia Warszawa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego • Kick-off: Friday 14 Oct 2022, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wisla Plock 56% | Draw 25% | Legia Warszawa 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 43% | xG Wisla Plock 1.57 / Legia Warszawa 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Wisla Plock attack 1.136 / def 0.819 | Legia Warszawa attack 0.820 / def 1.054 | league avg home 1.313 / away 1.168 • Poisson stance: Wisla Plock (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Wisla Plock xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Legia Warszawa xG
43%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wisla Plock vs Legia Warszawa kick off?
Wisla Plock vs Legia Warszawa kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 14 October 2022 at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego.
What was the final score in Wisla Plock vs Legia Warszawa?
Wisla Plock 2 - 1 Legia Warszawa.
Where is Wisla Plock vs Legia Warszawa being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego.
What competition is Wisla Plock vs Legia Warszawa part of?
Wisla Plock vs Legia Warszawa is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Wisla Plock vs Legia Warszawa?
Our statistical model gives Wisla Plock a 56% chance of winning, Legia Warszawa a 19% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Wisla Plock the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wisla Plock vs Legia Warszawa?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Wisla Plock and Legia Warszawa will score (BTTS).
Will Wisla Plock vs Legia Warszawa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Plock and Legia Warszawa?
Record (2 meetings): Wisla Plock 1W | Draws 0 | Legia Warszawa 1W.
What form are Wisla Plock and Legia Warszawa in?
Wisla Plock (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-W-D. Legia Warszawa (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Wisla Plock's attack at 1.14x the league average against Legia Warszawa's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.57 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Legia Warszawa's attack (0.82x) against Wisla Plock's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 0.79.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (13.2%), 2-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wisla Plock Win
56%
1.78
25%
3.95
19%
5.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Wisla Plock xG
Total xG
2.36
0.79
Legia Warszawa xG
1.78
56%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
5.37
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
46%
2.19
21%
4.82
Win to Nil
26%
3.91
4%
25.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.9 | 11.7 | 4.6 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.7 | 9.2 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.1 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wisla Plock vs Legia Warszawa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Wisla Plock and Legia Warszawa expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Wisla Plock and 0.79 for Legia Warszawa, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Wisla Plock vs Legia Warszawa?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Wisla Plock's recent record stands at 21W 6D 19L from 46 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Wisla Plock is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Legia Warszawa, meanwhile, have gone 20W 7D 19L across 46 games — 1.46 PPG, with W-L-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Legia Warszawa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for Wisla Plock against 1.46 for Legia Warszawa. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Wisla Plock have managed 15W 3D 4L from 22 games — 2.18 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.50 PPG overall — Wisla Plock are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Legia Warszawa's away record stands at 5W 6D 11L across 22 trips, a 0.95 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.46 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Legia Warszawa's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wisla Plock come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Wisla Plock are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Legia Warszawa are on 1.33 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wisla Plock
Blended
Legia Warszawa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wisla Plock and Legia Warszawa in coming into this match?
Wisla Plock have gone 21W 6D 19L in their last 46 games (1.50 PPG), while Legia Warszawa have gone 20W 7D 19L in their last 46 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wisla Plock at home or Legia Warszawa away?
Wisla Plock's home record (2.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wisla Plock at home: 2.18 PPG; Legia Warszawa away: 0.95 PPG.
Have Wisla Plock or Legia Warszawa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wisla Plock have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Legia Warszawa in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Wisla Plock have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Legia Warszawa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Wisla Plock
0
Draws
3
Legia Warszawa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Plock and Legia Warszawa?
From 6 meetings on record, Wisla Plock have won 3, Legia Warszawa have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Wisla Plock and Legia Warszawa last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Legia Warszawa 2-1 Wisla Plock.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Wisla Plock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 64% of the time.
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wisla Plock 41%, Legia Warszawa 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Wisla Plock) and 46% (Legia Warszawa).
On the defensive side: Wisla Plock keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Legia Warszawa in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wisla Plock home games / Legia Warszawa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wisla Plock play Legia Warszawa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Wisla Plock's recent matches and 50% of Legia Warszawa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Wisla Plock vs Legia Warszawa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Wisla Plock's recent games and 46% of Legia Warszawa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wisla Plock and Legia Warszawa tend to score early?
Wisla Plock have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Legia Warszawa in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Wisla Plock edge out Legia Warszawa 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wisla Plock beat Legia Warszawa 2-1 at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego, Regular Season - 13, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wisla Plock 1.57 xG and Legia Warszawa 0.79 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wisla Plock attack 1.14 / defence 0.82 against Legia Warszawa attack 0.82 / defence 1.05, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wisla Plock 56% | Draw 25% | Legia Warszawa 19%, with Wisla Plock to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wisla Plock 59%, Legia Warszawa 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wisla Plock's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Legia Warszawa's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Wisla Plock 1.50 PPG, Legia Warszawa 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Wisla Plock win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.