Wisla Plock 3-0 Lechia Gdansk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wisla Plock at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wisla Plock vs Lechia Gdansk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Wisla Plock and Lechia Gdansk meet at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 1. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 17 July 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Wisla Plock (all games): 5W 0D 5L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Wisla Plock haven't played a Ekstraklasa game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Wisla Plock at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego this season: 6W 0D 4L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Lechia Gdansk's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W D W D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Lechia Gdansk haven't played a Ekstraklasa game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Lechia Gdansk's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Wisla Plock, 1 for Lechia Gdansk and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Dec 2021, ended 1–0 with Wisla Plock winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Wisla Plock — key trading statistics (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Lechia Gdansk — key trading statistics (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wisla Plock 50% versus Lechia Gdansk 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wisla Plock 56% | Lechia Gdansk 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wisla Plock 1.57 xG and Lechia Gdansk 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wisla Plock attack 1.049 / defence 1.018 | Lechia Gdansk attack 0.996 / defence 1.123. League average goals — home 1.333 / away 1.148. Data: 34 Wisla Plock games / 34 Lechia Gdansk games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Wisla Plock 45% | Draw 28% | Lechia Gdansk 26%. Fair-value odds: Wisla Plock 2.22 | Draw 3.57 | Lechia Gdansk 3.85. Wisla Plock hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Wisla Plock are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Wisla Plock if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.73 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Wisla Plock 40% | Lechia Gdansk 50%.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wisla Plock vs Lechia Gdansk | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Jul 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wisla Plock 45% | Draw 28% | Lechia Gdansk 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 56% | xG Wisla Plock 1.57 / Lechia Gdansk 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Wisla Plock attack 1.049 / def 1.018 | Lechia Gdansk attack 0.996 / def 1.123 | league avg home 1.333 / away 1.148 • Poisson stance: Wisla Plock (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Wisla Plock xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Lechia Gdansk xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wisla Plock vs Lechia Gdansk kick off?
Wisla Plock vs Lechia Gdansk kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 17 July 2022 at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego.
What was the final score in Wisla Plock vs Lechia Gdansk?
Wisla Plock 3 - 0 Lechia Gdansk.
Where is Wisla Plock vs Lechia Gdansk being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego.
What competition is Wisla Plock vs Lechia Gdansk part of?
Wisla Plock vs Lechia Gdansk is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Wisla Plock vs Lechia Gdansk?
Our statistical model gives Wisla Plock a 45% chance of winning, Lechia Gdansk a 26% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Wisla Plock the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wisla Plock vs Lechia Gdansk?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Wisla Plock and Lechia Gdansk will score (BTTS).
Will Wisla Plock vs Lechia Gdansk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Plock and Lechia Gdansk?
Record (2 meetings): Wisla Plock 1W | Draws 0 | Lechia Gdansk 1W.
What form are Wisla Plock and Lechia Gdansk in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Wisla Plock (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Wisla Plock's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Lechia Gdansk's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.57. Flip it around — Lechia Gdansk's attack (1.00x) against Wisla Plock's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wisla Plock Win
45%
2.22
28%
3.51
26%
3.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Wisla Plock xG
Total xG
2.73
1.16
Lechia Gdansk xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
3.78
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
31%
3.20
21%
4.81
Win to Nil
14%
7.10
6%
18.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 7.6 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 11.9 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.3 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.9 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wisla Plock vs Lechia Gdansk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Wisla Plock and Lechia Gdansk expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Wisla Plock and 1.16 for Lechia Gdansk, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Wisla Plock vs Lechia Gdansk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Wisla Plock come into this having played 34 games, going 15W 3D 16L for 1.41 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-W. Wisla Plock haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Lechia Gdansk sit at 1.68 PPG from 34 outings (16W 9D 9L), a run that reads W-D-W-D-L across their last five. Lechia Gdansk haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.41 PPG for Wisla Plock against 1.68 for Lechia Gdansk. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Wisla Plock's home form reads 11W 2D 4L across 17 games on their own ground, a 2.06 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.41 PPG overall — Wisla Plock are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Lechia Gdansk have taken 1.00 points per game from 17 outings (4W 5D 8L). That's a step down from their 1.68 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Lechia Gdansk's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wisla Plock come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Wisla Plock are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Lechia Gdansk are on 1.53 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Defensively: Lechia Gdansk in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wisla Plock
Pre-Season
Lechia Gdansk
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wisla Plock and Lechia Gdansk in coming into this match?
Wisla Plock have gone 15W 3D 16L in their last 34 games (1.41 PPG), while Lechia Gdansk have gone 16W 9D 9L in their last 34 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wisla Plock at home or Lechia Gdansk away?
Wisla Plock's home record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wisla Plock at home: 2.06 PPG; Lechia Gdansk away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Wisla Plock or Lechia Gdansk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wisla Plock have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Lechia Gdansk in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 10 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Wisla Plock won 3-0 on 17 Jul 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Wisla Plock have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Lechia Gdansk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Wisla Plock
1
Draws
2
Lechia Gdansk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Plock and Lechia Gdansk?
From 6 meetings on record, Wisla Plock have won 3, Lechia Gdansk have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Wisla Plock and Lechia Gdansk last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2026, when Wisla Plock 1-0 Lechia Gdansk.
Who has won more matches between Wisla Plock and Lechia Gdansk?
Wisla Plock have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Wisla Plock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time.
Lechia Gdansk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wisla Plock 35%, Lechia Gdansk 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Wisla Plock) and 47% (Lechia Gdansk).
On the defensive side: Wisla Plock keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Lechia Gdansk in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wisla Plock home games / Lechia Gdansk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wisla Plock play Lechia Gdansk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Wisla Plock's recent matches and 47% of Lechia Gdansk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Wisla Plock vs Lechia Gdansk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Wisla Plock's recent games and 47% of Lechia Gdansk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wisla Plock and Lechia Gdansk tend to score early?
Wisla Plock have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Lechia Gdansk in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Wisla Plock run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Lechia Gdansk.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wisla Plock beat Lechia Gdansk 3-0 at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego, Regular Season - 1, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wisla Plock 1.57 xG and Lechia Gdansk 1.16 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Wisla Plock beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Lechia Gdansk landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wisla Plock attack 1.05 / defence 1.02 against Lechia Gdansk attack 1.00 / defence 1.12, drawn from 34/34 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wisla Plock 45% | Draw 28% | Lechia Gdansk 26%, with Wisla Plock to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wisla Plock 56%, Lechia Gdansk 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wisla Plock's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Lechia Gdansk's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Wisla Plock 1.41 PPG, Lechia Gdansk 1.68 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Wisla Plock win broke the near-deadlock. Wisla Plock (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.59 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.82 average — tighter than their form line. Lechia Gdansk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.65 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.