Wisla Plock 0-2 Korona Kielce – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Wisla Plock take on Korona Kielce.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 6 as Wisla Plock welcome Korona Kielce to Orlen Stadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 28 August 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Wisla Plock have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: D W D L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Wisla Plock have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Wisla Plock's home record at Orlen Stadion: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Korona Kielce stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L D W D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Korona Kielce have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Korona Kielce's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Wisla Plock at 0.80 PPG versus Korona Kielce's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Wisla Plock have won 2, Korona Kielce 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Dec 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Wisla Plock trading profile (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 22% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Korona Kielce trading profile (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wisla Plock 47% versus Korona Kielce 55%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Wisla Plock 40% | Korona Kielce 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wisla Plock 1.02 xG and Korona Kielce 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wisla Plock attack 0.696 / defence 0.911 | Korona Kielce attack 0.924 / defence 0.917. League average goals — home 1.592 / away 1.205. Wisla Plock's attack strength of 0.696 is below the league average — the 1.02 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 38 Wisla Plock games / 38 Korona Kielce games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wisla Plock 32% | Draw 37% | Korona Kielce 32%. Fair-value odds: Wisla Plock 3.12 | Draw 2.70 | Korona Kielce 3.12. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.03 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates corroborate: Wisla Plock 10% | Korona Kielce 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wisla Plock vs Korona Kielce | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Orlen Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 28 Aug 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wisla Plock 32% | Draw 37% | Korona Kielce 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 44% | xG Wisla Plock 1.02 / Korona Kielce 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Wisla Plock attack 0.696 / def 0.911 | Korona Kielce attack 0.924 / def 0.917 | league avg home 1.592 / away 1.205 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Wisla Plock xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Korona Kielce xG
44%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wisla Plock vs Korona Kielce kick off?
Wisla Plock vs Korona Kielce kicked off at 16:00 on Friday 28 August 2026 at Orlen Stadion.
What was the final score in Wisla Plock vs Korona Kielce?
Wisla Plock 0 - 2 Korona Kielce.
Where is Wisla Plock vs Korona Kielce being played?
The match is being played at Orlen Stadion.
What competition is Wisla Plock vs Korona Kielce part of?
Wisla Plock vs Korona Kielce is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Wisla Plock vs Korona Kielce?
Our statistical model gives Wisla Plock a 32% chance of winning, Korona Kielce a 32% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Wisla Plock vs Korona Kielce?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Wisla Plock and Korona Kielce will score (BTTS).
Will Wisla Plock vs Korona Kielce have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Plock and Korona Kielce?
Record (4 meetings): Wisla Plock 2W | Draws 1 | Korona Kielce 1W.
What form are Wisla Plock and Korona Kielce in?
Wisla Plock (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-W-D-L-L. Korona Kielce (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Wisla Plock's attack at 0.70x the league average against Korona Kielce's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.02 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Korona Kielce's attack versus Wisla Plock's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.9%), 1-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
32%
3.15
37%
2.74
32%
3.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.3%
Away win
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Wisla Plock xG
Total xG
2.03
1.01
Korona Kielce xG
3.15
32%
Home win
2.74
37%
Draw
3.15
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
36%
2.76
Win to Nil
12%
8.68
11%
8.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.1 | 13.3 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 13.5 | 6.9 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 6.9 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wisla Plock vs Korona Kielce?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Wisla Plock and Korona Kielce expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Wisla Plock and 1.01 for Korona Kielce, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Wisla Plock vs Korona Kielce?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Wisla Plock's recent record stands at 13W 11D 14L from 38 games, a 1.32 PPG return, with D-W-D-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Wisla Plock, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Korona Kielce, meanwhile, have gone 12W 12D 14L across 38 games — 1.26 PPG, with D-L-D-W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Korona Kielce, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Wisla Plock on 1.32 PPG, Korona Kielce on 1.26. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Wisla Plock have managed 8W 4D 6L from 18 games — 1.56 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Korona Kielce's away record stands at 5W 5D 8L across 18 trips, a 1.11 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wisla Plock come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Wisla Plock are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Korona Kielce are on 1.16 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wisla Plock
Early Season
Korona Kielce
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wisla Plock and Korona Kielce in coming into this match?
Wisla Plock have gone 13W 11D 14L in their last 38 games (1.32 PPG), while Korona Kielce have gone 12W 12D 14L in their last 38 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wisla Plock at home or Korona Kielce away?
Wisla Plock's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wisla Plock at home: 1.56 PPG; Korona Kielce away: 1.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Wisla Plock and Korona Kielce runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 28 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Wisla Plock's record when hosting Korona Kielce specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Wisla Plock
1
Draws
2
Korona Kielce
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Plock and Korona Kielce?
From 5 meetings on record, Wisla Plock have won 2, Korona Kielce have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Wisla Plock and Korona Kielce last play each other?
They last met on 28 August 2026, when Wisla Plock 0-2 Korona Kielce.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Wisla Plock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Korona Kielce see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wisla Plock 22%, Korona Kielce 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 28% for Wisla Plock and 39% for Korona Kielce.
On the defensive side: Wisla Plock keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Wisla Plock have failed to score in 50% of games; Korona Kielce in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wisla Plock home games / Korona Kielce away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wisla Plock play Korona Kielce?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 22% of Wisla Plock's recent matches and 56% of Korona Kielce's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Wisla Plock vs Korona Kielce usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 28% of Wisla Plock's recent games and 39% of Korona Kielce's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wisla Plock and Korona Kielce tend to score early?
Wisla Plock have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Korona Kielce in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Korona Kielce cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Wisla Plock.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Korona Kielce beat Wisla Plock 0-2 at Orlen Stadion, Regular Season - 6, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wisla Plock 1.02 xG and Korona Kielce 1.01 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Wisla Plock fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Korona Kielce outscored their 1.01 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wisla Plock attack 0.70 / defence 0.91 against Korona Kielce attack 0.92 / defence 0.92, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wisla Plock 32% | Draw 37% | Korona Kielce 32%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The actual Korona Kielce win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wisla Plock 40%, Korona Kielce 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wisla Plock's trading profile (38 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Korona Kielce's trading profile (38 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Wisla Plock 1.32 PPG, Korona Kielce 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Korona Kielce win broke the near-deadlock. Wisla Plock (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Korona Kielce (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.28 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.