Widzew Łódź 3-3 Pogon Szczecin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pogon Szczecin at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Widzew Łódź vs Pogon Szczecin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Pogon Szczecin make the trip to Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź to face Widzew Łódź in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Saturday 28 January 2023 at 16:30 UTC.
Form
Widzew Łódź (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Widzew Łódź, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Widzew Łódź at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź this season: 4W 1D 3L from 8 home games — 1.62 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 8 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź.
Pogon Szczecin have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: D D W L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.80. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Pogon Szczecin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Pogon Szczecin have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.90 for Widzew Łódź, 1.60 for Pogon Szczecin — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Widzew Łódź lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Jul 2022, ended 1–2 with Pogon Szczecin winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Widzew Łódź goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time.
Pogon Szczecin goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 88% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Widzew Łódź 35% versus Pogon Szczecin 82%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Widzew Łódź 53% | Pogon Szczecin 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Widzew Łódź 1.30 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Widzew Łódź attack 0.954 / defence 1.067 | Pogon Szczecin attack 1.211 / defence 1.081. League average goals — home 1.264 / away 1.212. Pogon Szczecin have an above-average attack strength of 1.211 — the away xG of 1.57 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 17 Widzew Łódź games / 51 Pogon Szczecin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 31% | Draw 27% | Pogon Szczecin 42%. Fair-value odds: Widzew Łódź 3.23 | Draw 3.70 | Pogon Szczecin 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Pogon Szczecin are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pogon Szczecin if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.87 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Widzew Łódź 50% | Pogon Szczecin 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Widzew Łódź vs Pogon Szczecin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Jan 2023, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 31% | Draw 27% | Pogon Szczecin 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 59% | xG Widzew Łódź 1.30 / Pogon Szczecin 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: Widzew Łódź attack 0.954 / def 1.067 | Pogon Szczecin attack 1.211 / def 1.081 | league avg home 1.264 / away 1.212 • Poisson stance: Pogon Szczecin (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Widzew Łódź xG
Expected Goals
1.57
Pogon Szczecin xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Widzew Łódź vs Pogon Szczecin kick off?
Widzew Łódź vs Pogon Szczecin kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 28 January 2023 at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź.
What was the final score in Widzew Łódź vs Pogon Szczecin?
Widzew Łódź 3 - 3 Pogon Szczecin.
Where is Widzew Łódź vs Pogon Szczecin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź.
What competition is Widzew Łódź vs Pogon Szczecin part of?
Widzew Łódź vs Pogon Szczecin is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Widzew Łódź vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our statistical model gives Widzew Łódź a 31% chance of winning, Pogon Szczecin a 42% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Pogon Szczecin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Widzew Łódź vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Widzew Łódź and Pogon Szczecin will score (BTTS).
Will Widzew Łódź vs Pogon Szczecin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Widzew Łódź and Pogon Szczecin?
Record (1 meetings): Widzew Łódź 0W | Draws 0 | Pogon Szczecin 1W.
What form are Widzew Łódź and Pogon Szczecin in?
Widzew Łódź (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Widzew Łódź's attack rating (0.95) and Pogon Szczecin's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.30 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Pogon Szczecin's attack (1.21x) against Widzew Łódź's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.57.
These ratings are built from 17/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Pogon Szczecin Win
31%
3.27
27%
3.69
42%
2.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Widzew Łódź xG
Total xG
2.87
1.57
Pogon Szczecin xG
3.27
31%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
2.36
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
21%
4.79
27%
3.69
Win to Nil
6%
15.67
11%
8.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 8.9 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.6 | 9.1 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.6 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.3 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Widzew Łódź vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Widzew Łódź and Pogon Szczecin expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Widzew Łódź and 1.57 for Pogon Szczecin, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Widzew Łódź vs Pogon Szczecin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Widzew Łódź come into this having played 17 games, going 9W 2D 6L for 1.71 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-W. The sample for Widzew Łódź is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Pogon Szczecin sit at 1.71 PPG from 17 outings (8W 5D 4L), a run that reads D-D-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Pogon Szczecin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.71 PPG for Widzew Łódź against 1.71 for Pogon Szczecin. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Widzew Łódź's home form reads 4W 1D 3L across 8 games on their own ground, a 1.62 PPG return.
Away from home, Pogon Szczecin have taken 1.75 points per game from 8 outings (4W 2D 2L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Widzew Łódź are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Pogon Szczecin are on 1.71 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pogon Szczecin in 82%.
Defensively: Widzew Łódź have kept a clean sheet in 53% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Widzew Łódź
Blended
Pogon Szczecin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Widzew Łódź and Pogon Szczecin in coming into this match?
Widzew Łódź have gone 9W 2D 6L in their last 17 games (1.71 PPG), while Pogon Szczecin have gone 8W 5D 4L in their last 17 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Widzew Łódź at home or Pogon Szczecin away?
Pogon Szczecin's away record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Widzew Łódź at home: 1.62 PPG; Pogon Szczecin away: 1.75 PPG.
Have Widzew Łódź or Pogon Szczecin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Widzew Łódź have kept a clean sheet in 53% of their recent games, Pogon Szczecin in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since July 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Pogon Szczecin have taken the last 6 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Pogon Szczecin won 0-4 on 22 Feb 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Widzew Łódź have gone 0W 1D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Pogon Szczecin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Widzew Łódź
1
Draws
7
Pogon Szczecin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Widzew Łódź and Pogon Szczecin?
From 8 meetings on record, Widzew Łódź have won 0, Pogon Szczecin have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Widzew Łódź and Pogon Szczecin last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Pogon Szczecin 1-0 Widzew Łódź.
Who has won more matches between Widzew Łódź and Pogon Szczecin?
Pogon Szczecin have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Widzew Łódź are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Pogon Szczecin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 50% for Widzew Łódź, 88% for Pogon Szczecin — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Widzew Łódź and 62% for Pogon Szczecin. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Widzew Łódź keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Widzew Łódź home games / Pogon Szczecin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Widzew Łódź play Pogon Szczecin?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Widzew Łódź's games and 88% of Pogon Szczecin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Widzew Łódź vs Pogon Szczecin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Widzew Łódź's matches and 62% of Pogon Szczecin's.
Do Widzew Łódź and Pogon Szczecin tend to score early?
Widzew Łódź have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Pogon Szczecin in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Widzew Łódź and Pogon Szczecin share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Widzew Łódź and Pogon Szczecin finished level at 3-3 at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź, Regular Season - 18, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Widzew Łódź 1.30 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.57 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Widzew Łódź beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Pogon Szczecin outscored their 1.57 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Widzew Łódź attack 0.95 / defence 1.07 against Pogon Szczecin attack 1.21 / defence 1.08, drawn from 17/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Widzew Łódź 31% | Draw 27% | Pogon Szczecin 42%, with Pogon Szczecin to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Widzew Łódź 53%, Pogon Szczecin 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Widzew Łódź's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time, and conceded here.
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 82% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Widzew Łódź 1.71 PPG, Pogon Szczecin 1.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Widzew Łódź (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.75 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.