Widzew Łódź vs Pogon Szczecin – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Pogon Szczecin (45%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Widzew Łódź face Pogon Szczecin.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Pogon Szczecin make the trip to to face Widzew Łódź in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Saturday 7 November 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Widzew Łódź (all games): 1W 6D 3L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D D L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Widzew Łódź, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Widzew Łódź at this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Widzew Łódź are significantly better at than their overall form suggests.
Pogon Szczecin have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: D W W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Pogon Szczecin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Pogon Szczecin have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
On a straight form reading, Pogon Szczecin are the stronger side — 1.20 PPG clear of the hosts (2.10 vs 0.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 8 meetings, Pogon Szczecin have the stronger historical record — 7 wins to Widzew Łódź's 0, with 1 draws in the mix.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.1 goals per game across 8 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Feb 2026, ended 0–1 with Pogon Szczecin winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Pogon Szczecin have won 7 of 8 previous encounters, and at 3.1 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Widzew Łódź goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Pogon Szczecin goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Widzew Łódź 54% versus Pogon Szczecin 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Widzew Łódź 50% | Pogon Szczecin 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Widzew Łódź 0.74 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Widzew Łódź attack 0.787 / defence 0.984 | Pogon Szczecin attack 0.958 / defence 0.611. League average goals — home 1.539 / away 1.332. Widzew Łódź's attack strength of 0.787 is below the league average — the 0.74 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Pogon Szczecin's defence strength of 0.611 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 45 Widzew Łódź games / 44 Pogon Szczecin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 18% | Draw 37% | Pogon Szczecin 45%. Fair-value odds: Widzew Łódź 5.56 | Draw 2.70 | Pogon Szczecin 2.22. Pogon Szczecin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (37%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Pogon Szczecin are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 37% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pogon Szczecin if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.00 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.1 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Widzew Łódź 60% | Pogon Szczecin 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Widzew Łódź vs Pogon Szczecin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Nov 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 18% | Draw 37% | Pogon Szczecin 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 41% | xG Widzew Łódź 0.74 / Pogon Szczecin 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Widzew Łódź attack 0.787 / def 0.984 | Pogon Szczecin attack 0.958 / def 0.611 | league avg home 1.539 / away 1.332 • Poisson stance: Pogon Szczecin (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.74
Widzew Łódź xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Pogon Szczecin xG
41%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Widzew Łódź vs Pogon Szczecin kick off?
Widzew Łódź vs Pogon Szczecin is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Saturday 7 November 2026.
What competition is Widzew Łódź vs Pogon Szczecin part of?
Widzew Łódź vs Pogon Szczecin is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Widzew Łódź vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our statistical model gives Widzew Łódź a 18% chance of winning, Pogon Szczecin a 45% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making Pogon Szczecin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Widzew Łódź vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Widzew Łódź and Pogon Szczecin will score (BTTS).
Will Widzew Łódź vs Pogon Szczecin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Widzew Łódź and Pogon Szczecin?
Record (8 meetings): Widzew Łódź 0W | Draws 1 | Pogon Szczecin 7W.
What form are Widzew Łódź and Pogon Szczecin in?
Widzew Łódź (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-D-L-D. Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Widzew Łódź's attack rating (0.79) and Pogon Szczecin's defence rating (0.61), the model arrives at 0.74 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Pogon Szczecin's attack (0.96x) against Widzew Łódź's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from 45/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.2%), 1-1 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pogon Szczecin Win
18%
5.52
37%
2.70
45%
2.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.1%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.6%
Draw
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.74
Widzew Łódź xG
Total xG
2.00
1.26
Pogon Szczecin xG
5.52
18%
Home win
2.70
37%
Draw
2.23
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.43
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
28%
3.51
48%
2.10
Win to Nil
5%
19.38
21%
4.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.6 | 17.1 | 10.7 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.6 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 4.7 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Widzew Łódź vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.4%.
How many goals are Widzew Łódź and Pogon Szczecin expected to score?
The model projects 0.74 expected goals for Widzew Łódź and 1.26 for Pogon Szczecin, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Widzew Łódź vs Pogon Szczecin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Widzew Łódź come into this having played 44 games, going 12W 13D 19L for 1.11 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-L-D. The sample for Widzew Łódź is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Pogon Szczecin sit at 1.50 PPG from 44 outings (19W 9D 16L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Pogon Szczecin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.11 PPG for Widzew Łódź against 1.50 for Pogon Szczecin. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Widzew Łódź's home form reads 7W 8D 6L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.38 PPG return.
Away from home, Pogon Szczecin have taken 1.19 points per game from 21 outings (7W 4D 10L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Widzew Łódź are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Pogon Szczecin are on 1.41 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Widzew Łódź
Blended
Pogon Szczecin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Widzew Łódź and Pogon Szczecin in coming into this match?
Widzew Łódź have gone 12W 13D 19L in their last 44 games (1.11 PPG), while Pogon Szczecin have gone 19W 9D 16L in their last 44 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Widzew Łódź at home or Pogon Szczecin away?
Widzew Łódź's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Widzew Łódź at home: 1.38 PPG; Pogon Szczecin away: 1.19 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since July 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Pogon Szczecin have taken the last 6 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Pogon Szczecin won 0-4 on 22 Feb 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Widzew Łódź have gone 0W 1D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Pogon Szczecin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Widzew Łódź
1
Draws
7
Pogon Szczecin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Widzew Łódź and Pogon Szczecin?
From 8 meetings on record, Widzew Łódź have won 0, Pogon Szczecin have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Widzew Łódź and Pogon Szczecin last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Pogon Szczecin 1-0 Widzew Łódź.
Who has won more matches between Widzew Łódź and Pogon Szczecin?
Pogon Szczecin have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Widzew Łódź are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Pogon Szczecin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Widzew Łódź 62%, Pogon Szczecin 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Widzew Łódź) and 38% (Pogon Szczecin).
On the defensive side: Widzew Łódź keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Pogon Szczecin in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Widzew Łódź home games / Pogon Szczecin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Widzew Łódź play Pogon Szczecin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Widzew Łódź's recent matches and 48% of Pogon Szczecin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Widzew Łódź vs Pogon Szczecin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Widzew Łódź's recent games and 38% of Pogon Szczecin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Widzew Łódź and Pogon Szczecin tend to score early?
Widzew Łódź have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Pogon Szczecin in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.