Widzew Łódź vs Legia Warszawa – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Legia Warszawa (36%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Widzew Łódź face Legia Warszawa.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees Legia Warszawa travel to to take on Widzew Łódź. The game is scheduled for Saturday 13 March 2027, 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Widzew Łódź have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D W L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Widzew Łódź have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Widzew Łódź's home record at : 5W 3D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Widzew Łódź are significantly better at than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Legia Warszawa stand at 7W 3D 0L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W D W D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Legia Warszawa have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Legia Warszawa have gone 4W 5D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Legia Warszawa are 1.20 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Widzew Łódź register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Legia Warszawa in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The previous 8 encounters between these sides heavily favour Legia Warszawa, who boast 5 victories compared to 1 for Widzew Łódź.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 May 2026, ended 0–1 with Legia Warszawa winning.
It is worth noting that Legia Warszawa have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 8 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Widzew Łódź in-play and half-time data (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Legia Warszawa in-play and half-time data (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Widzew Łódź 52% versus Legia Warszawa 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Widzew Łódź 50% | Legia Warszawa 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Widzew Łódź 1.27 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Widzew Łódź attack 1.052 / defence 1.186 | Legia Warszawa attack 0.892 / defence 0.786. League average goals — home 1.541 / away 1.297. Legia Warszawa's defence strength of 0.786 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 40 Widzew Łódź games / 40 Legia Warszawa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 32% | Draw 32% | Legia Warszawa 36%. Fair-value odds: Widzew Łódź 3.12 | Draw 3.12 | Legia Warszawa 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Legia Warszawa at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Legia Warszawa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.65 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Widzew Łódź 60% | Legia Warszawa 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Widzew Łódź vs Legia Warszawa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Mar 2027, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 32% | Draw 32% | Legia Warszawa 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 57% | xG Widzew Łódź 1.27 / Legia Warszawa 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Widzew Łódź attack 1.052 / def 1.186 | Legia Warszawa attack 0.892 / def 0.786 | league avg home 1.541 / away 1.297 • Poisson stance: Legia Warszawa (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Widzew Łódź xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Legia Warszawa xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Widzew Łódź vs Legia Warszawa kick off?
Widzew Łódź vs Legia Warszawa is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Saturday 13 March 2027.
What competition is Widzew Łódź vs Legia Warszawa part of?
Widzew Łódź vs Legia Warszawa is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Widzew Łódź vs Legia Warszawa?
Our statistical model gives Widzew Łódź a 32% chance of winning, Legia Warszawa a 36% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Legia Warszawa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Widzew Łódź vs Legia Warszawa?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Widzew Łódź and Legia Warszawa will score (BTTS).
Will Widzew Łódź vs Legia Warszawa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Widzew Łódź and Legia Warszawa?
Record (8 meetings): Widzew Łódź 1W | Draws 2 | Legia Warszawa 5W.
What form are Widzew Łódź and Legia Warszawa in?
Widzew Łódź (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-D-L. Legia Warszawa (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-D-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Widzew Łódź's attack rating (1.05) and Legia Warszawa's defence rating (0.79), the model arrives at 1.27 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Legia Warszawa's attack versus Widzew Łódź's defence, projects 1.37 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Legia Warszawa Win
32%
3.17
32%
3.10
36%
2.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Widzew Łódź xG
Total xG
2.65
1.37
Legia Warszawa xG
3.17
32%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
2.77
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
25%
3.94
28%
3.58
Win to Nil
8%
12.49
10%
9.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 9.7 | 6.7 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.4 | 8.5 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.9 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Widzew Łódź vs Legia Warszawa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Widzew Łódź and Legia Warszawa expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Widzew Łódź and 1.37 for Legia Warszawa, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Widzew Łódź vs Legia Warszawa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Widzew Łódź's recent record stands at 13W 9D 18L from 40 games, a 1.20 PPG return, with D-W-L-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Widzew Łódź, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Legia Warszawa, meanwhile, have gone 15W 16D 9L across 40 games — 1.52 PPG, with W-D-W-D-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Legia Warszawa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Widzew Łódź on 1.20 PPG, Legia Warszawa on 1.52. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Widzew Łódź have managed 9W 5D 6L from 20 games — 1.60 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.20 PPG overall — Widzew Łódź are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Legia Warszawa's away record stands at 5W 9D 6L across 20 trips, a 1.20 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Widzew Łódź come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Widzew Łódź are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Legia Warszawa are on 1.35 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Last 40 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Widzew Łódź
Early Season
Legia Warszawa
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Widzew Łódź and Legia Warszawa in coming into this match?
Widzew Łódź have gone 13W 9D 18L in their last 40 games (1.20 PPG), while Legia Warszawa have gone 15W 16D 9L in their last 40 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Widzew Łódź at home or Legia Warszawa away?
Widzew Łódź's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Widzew Łódź at home: 1.60 PPG; Legia Warszawa away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Widzew Łódź or Legia Warszawa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Widzew Łódź have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Legia Warszawa in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Widzew Łódź and Legia Warszawa runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 1 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Widzew Łódź's record when hosting Legia Warszawa specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Widzew Łódź
2
Draws
5
Legia Warszawa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Widzew Łódź and Legia Warszawa?
From 8 meetings on record, Widzew Łódź have won 1, Legia Warszawa have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Widzew Łódź and Legia Warszawa last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2026, when Legia Warszawa 1-0 Widzew Łódź.
Who has won more matches between Widzew Łódź and Legia Warszawa?
Legia Warszawa have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Widzew Łódź are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Widzew Łódź 60%, Legia Warszawa 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Widzew Łódź) and 35% (Legia Warszawa).
On the defensive side: Widzew Łódź keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Widzew Łódź home games / Legia Warszawa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Widzew Łódź play Legia Warszawa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Widzew Łódź's games and 65% of Legia Warszawa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Widzew Łódź vs Legia Warszawa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Widzew Łódź's recent games and 35% of Legia Warszawa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Widzew Łódź and Legia Warszawa tend to score early?
Widzew Łódź have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Legia Warszawa in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.