Widzew Łódź 2-3 Lechia Gdansk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Widzew Łódź at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Widzew Łódź vs Lechia Gdansk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Widzew Łódź host Lechia Gdansk at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 31 July 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Widzew Łódź — All Games: 1W 0D 1L from 2 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Widzew Łódź have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Lechia Gdansk have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W D L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Lechia Gdansk have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lechia Gdansk's away record: 1W 1D 8L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Widzew Łódź at 1.50 PPG versus Lechia Gdansk's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Widzew Łódź 1.37 xG and Lechia Gdansk 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Widzew Łódź attack 0.861 / defence 1.150 | Lechia Gdansk attack 0.866 / defence 1.260. League average goals — home 1.264 / away 1.206. Lechia Gdansk bring a strong defensive rating of 1.260 — this is suppressing Widzew Łódź's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 2 Widzew Łódź games / 35 Lechia Gdansk games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 40% | Draw 28% | Lechia Gdansk 32%. Fair-value odds: Widzew Łódź 2.50 | Draw 3.57 | Lechia Gdansk 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Widzew Łódź are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Widzew Łódź offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.57 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Widzew Łódź vs Lechia Gdansk | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Jul 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 40% | Draw 28% | Lechia Gdansk 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 53% | xG Widzew Łódź 1.37 / Lechia Gdansk 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Widzew Łódź attack 0.861 / def 1.150 | Lechia Gdansk attack 0.866 / def 1.260 | league avg home 1.264 / away 1.206 • Poisson stance: Widzew Łódź (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Widzew Łódź xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Lechia Gdansk xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Widzew Łódź vs Lechia Gdansk kick off?
Widzew Łódź vs Lechia Gdansk kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 31 July 2022 at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź.
What was the final score in Widzew Łódź vs Lechia Gdansk?
Widzew Łódź 2 - 3 Lechia Gdansk.
Where is Widzew Łódź vs Lechia Gdansk being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź.
What competition is Widzew Łódź vs Lechia Gdansk part of?
Widzew Łódź vs Lechia Gdansk is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Widzew Łódź vs Lechia Gdansk?
Our statistical model gives Widzew Łódź a 40% chance of winning, Lechia Gdansk a 32% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Widzew Łódź the favourite.
Will both teams score in Widzew Łódź vs Lechia Gdansk?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Widzew Łódź and Lechia Gdansk will score (BTTS).
Will Widzew Łódź vs Lechia Gdansk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Widzew Łódź and Lechia Gdansk?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Widzew Łódź and Lechia Gdansk in?
Widzew Łódź (all comps): 1W-0D-1L in 2 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W. Lechia Gdansk (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Widzew Łódź's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Lechia Gdansk's defensive record (1.26x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.37. The same calculation in reverse, Lechia Gdansk's attack versus Widzew Łódź's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/35 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Widzew Łódź Win
40%
2.51
28%
3.55
32%
3.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Widzew Łódź xG
Total xG
2.57
1.20
Lechia Gdansk xG
2.51
40%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
3.14
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
30%
3.32
25%
3.94
Win to Nil
12%
8.33
8%
12.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 9.2 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.6 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.6 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Widzew Łódź vs Lechia Gdansk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Widzew Łódź and Lechia Gdansk expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Widzew Łódź and 1.20 for Lechia Gdansk, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Widzew Łódź vs Lechia Gdansk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 2 outings, Widzew Łódź have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 1W 0D 1L record — L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Widzew Łódź, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Lechia Gdansk's form line: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games, 0.00 PPG, last five L-L. It's still early in the season for Lechia Gdansk, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Widzew Łódź are the form team by 1.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Lechia Gdansk.
The Goals Picture
Widzew Łódź are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Lechia Gdansk are on 0.00 scored and 3.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lechia Gdansk in 0%.
Defensively: Widzew Łódź have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Widzew Łódź
Early Season
Lechia Gdansk
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Widzew Łódź and Lechia Gdansk in coming into this match?
Widzew Łódź have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 games (1.50 PPG), while Lechia Gdansk have gone 0W 0D 2L in their last 2 (0.00 PPG).
Have Widzew Łódź or Lechia Gdansk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Widzew Łódź have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Lechia Gdansk in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Widzew Łódź and Lechia Gdansk runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 9 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Widzew Łódź's record when hosting Lechia Gdansk specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Widzew Łódź
2
Draws
2
Lechia Gdansk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Widzew Łódź and Lechia Gdansk?
From 6 meetings on record, Widzew Łódź have won 2, Lechia Gdansk have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Widzew Łódź and Lechia Gdansk last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Widzew Łódź 3-1 Lechia Gdansk.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Widzew Łódź home games / Lechia Gdansk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Widzew Łódź play Lechia Gdansk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Widzew Łódź's recent matches and 0% of Lechia Gdansk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Widzew Łódź vs Lechia Gdansk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Widzew Łódź's matches and 100% of Lechia Gdansk's.
Do Widzew Łódź and Lechia Gdansk tend to score early?
Widzew Łódź have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Lechia Gdansk in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Lechia Gdansk defy the odds to beat Widzew Łódź 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lechia Gdansk beat Widzew Łódź 2-3 at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź, Regular Season - 3, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Widzew Łódź 1.37 xG and Lechia Gdansk 1.20 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Lechia Gdansk outscored their 1.20 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Widzew Łódź attack 0.86 / defence 1.15 against Lechia Gdansk attack 0.87 / defence 1.26, drawn from 2/35 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Widzew Łódź 40% | Draw 28% | Lechia Gdansk 32%, with Widzew Łódź to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Lechia Gdansk win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Widzew Łódź 50%, Lechia Gdansk 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Widzew Łódź arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.00. Form was overturned, with Lechia Gdansk winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Widzew Łódź shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lechia Gdansk scored 3 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 2 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.