Widzew Łódź 0-1 Jagiellonia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Jagiellonia (44%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Widzew Łódź face Jagiellonia.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Jagiellonia make the trip to Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź to face Widzew Łódź in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 24. The match kicks off on Sunday 9 March 2025 at 16:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Widzew Łódź have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Widzew Łódź, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Widzew Łódź's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Widzew Łódź are significantly better at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź than their overall form suggests.
Jagiellonia's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 4W 5D 1L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W L W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Jagiellonia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jagiellonia's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Jagiellonia are 0.90 PPG clear of Widzew Łódź in recent Ekstraklasa fixtures (1.70 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Widzew Łódź, 3 for Jagiellonia and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Sep 2024, ended 0–1 with Jagiellonia winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Widzew Łódź half-time and goal-timing data (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Jagiellonia half-time and goal-timing data (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Widzew Łódź 61% and Jagiellonia 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Widzew Łódź 51% | Jagiellonia 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Widzew Łódź 1.34 xG and Jagiellonia 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Widzew Łódź attack 0.907 / defence 1.240 | Jagiellonia attack 1.104 / defence 1.082. League average goals — home 1.364 / away 1.174. Data: 57 Widzew Łódź games / 57 Jagiellonia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 32% | Draw 24% | Jagiellonia 44%. Fair-value odds: Widzew Łódź 3.12 | Draw 4.17 | Jagiellonia 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Jagiellonia as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jagiellonia if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.95 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates are neutral: Widzew Łódź 40% | Jagiellonia 60%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Widzew Łódź vs Jagiellonia | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Mar 2025, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 32% | Draw 24% | Jagiellonia 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Widzew Łódź 1.34 / Jagiellonia 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: Widzew Łódź attack 0.907 / def 1.240 | Jagiellonia attack 1.104 / def 1.082 | league avg home 1.364 / away 1.174 • Poisson stance: Jagiellonia (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Widzew Łódź xG
Expected Goals
1.61
Jagiellonia xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Widzew Łódź vs Jagiellonia kick off?
Widzew Łódź vs Jagiellonia kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 9 March 2025 at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź.
What was the final score in Widzew Łódź vs Jagiellonia?
Widzew Łódź 0 - 1 Jagiellonia.
Where is Widzew Łódź vs Jagiellonia being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź.
What competition is Widzew Łódź vs Jagiellonia part of?
Widzew Łódź vs Jagiellonia is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Widzew Łódź vs Jagiellonia?
Our statistical model gives Widzew Łódź a 32% chance of winning, Jagiellonia a 44% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Jagiellonia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Widzew Łódź vs Jagiellonia?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Widzew Łódź and Jagiellonia will score (BTTS).
Will Widzew Łódź vs Jagiellonia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Widzew Łódź and Jagiellonia?
Record (5 meetings): Widzew Łódź 1W | Draws 1 | Jagiellonia 3W.
What form are Widzew Łódź and Jagiellonia in?
Widzew Łódź (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. Jagiellonia (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Widzew Łódź's attack rating (0.91) and Jagiellonia's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.34 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Jagiellonia's attack (1.10x) against Widzew Łódź's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 1.61.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jagiellonia Win
32%
3.14
24%
4.11
44%
2.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
0 – 1
8.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Widzew Łódź xG
Total xG
2.95
1.61
Jagiellonia xG
3.14
32%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
2.28
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
20%
4.99
26%
3.81
Win to Nil
6%
15.66
11%
8.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 8.4 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.3 | 9.1 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.6 | 6.1 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Widzew Łódź vs Jagiellonia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Widzew Łódź and Jagiellonia expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Widzew Łódź and 1.61 for Jagiellonia, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Widzew Łódź vs Jagiellonia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Widzew Łódź's recent record stands at 20W 13D 24L from 57 games, a 1.28 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Widzew Łódź is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jagiellonia, meanwhile, have gone 31W 15D 11L across 57 games — 1.89 PPG, with W-L-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Jagiellonia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Jagiellonia by 0.61 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Widzew Łódź heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Widzew Łódź have managed 14W 3D 11L from 28 games — 1.61 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Jagiellonia's away record stands at 11W 9D 8L across 28 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Widzew Łódź are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Jagiellonia are on 2.12 scored and 1.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Widzew Łódź have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Jagiellonia in 65%.
Last 57 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Widzew Łódź
Blended
Jagiellonia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Widzew Łódź and Jagiellonia in coming into this match?
Widzew Łódź have gone 20W 13D 24L in their last 57 games (1.28 PPG), while Jagiellonia have gone 31W 15D 11L in their last 57 (1.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Widzew Łódź at home or Jagiellonia away?
Widzew Łódź's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Widzew Łódź at home: 1.61 PPG; Jagiellonia away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Widzew Łódź or Jagiellonia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Widzew Łódź have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Jagiellonia in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since July 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 9 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Widzew Łódź have gone 0W 1D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Jagiellonia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Widzew Łódź
1
Draws
6
Jagiellonia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Widzew Łódź and Jagiellonia?
From 9 meetings on record, Widzew Łódź have won 2, Jagiellonia have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Widzew Łódź and Jagiellonia last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2026, when Jagiellonia 0-2 Widzew Łódź.
Who has won more matches between Widzew Łódź and Jagiellonia?
Jagiellonia have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Widzew Łódź are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Jagiellonia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Widzew Łódź 46%, Jagiellonia 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Widzew Łódź) and 68% (Jagiellonia). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Widzew Łódź have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Widzew Łódź home games / Jagiellonia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Widzew Łódź play Jagiellonia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 46% of Widzew Łódź's games and 75% of Jagiellonia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Widzew Łódź vs Jagiellonia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of Widzew Łódź's matches and 68% of Jagiellonia's.
Do Widzew Łódź and Jagiellonia tend to score early?
Widzew Łódź have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Jagiellonia in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Jagiellonia edge out Widzew Łódź 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jagiellonia beat Widzew Łódź 0-1 at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź, Regular Season - 24, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Widzew Łódź 1.34 xG and Jagiellonia 1.61 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Widzew Łódź fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Widzew Łódź attack 0.91 / defence 1.24 against Jagiellonia attack 1.10 / defence 1.08, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Widzew Łódź 32% | Draw 24% | Jagiellonia 44%, with Jagiellonia to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Widzew Łódź 51%, Jagiellonia 70%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Widzew Łódź's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Jagiellonia's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Jagiellonia arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 1.28. Form held, and they took the win. Widzew Łódź (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward. Jagiellonia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.64 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.