Widzew Łódź 2-0 Cracovia Krakow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cracovia Krakow at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Widzew Łódź vs Cracovia Krakow fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź plays host to Widzew Łódź versus Cracovia Krakow in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Friday 9 September 2022 at 19:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Widzew Łódź have collected 1.25 PPG across 8 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 3W 1D 4L. Last five: D L W W L. They are averaging 1.12 goals per game and conceding 1.25 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets in 8 games (38%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Widzew Łódź, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Widzew Łódź's home record at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź: 1W 0D 2L from 3 Ekstraklasa appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Cracovia Krakow (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Cracovia Krakow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cracovia Krakow's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.25 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading
Widzew Łódź half-time and goal-timing data (8 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games.
Cracovia Krakow half-time and goal-timing data (8 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 12% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 38% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Widzew Łódź 50% | Cracovia Krakow 12%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Widzew Łódź 50% | Cracovia Krakow 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Widzew Łódź 1.20 xG and Cracovia Krakow 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Widzew Łódź attack 0.967 / defence 1.273 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.868 / defence 0.972. League average goals — home 1.281 / away 1.180. Data: 8 Widzew Łódź games / 42 Cracovia Krakow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 34% | Draw 27% | Cracovia Krakow 39%. Fair-value odds: Widzew Łódź 2.94 | Draw 3.70 | Cracovia Krakow 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cracovia Krakow at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cracovia Krakow if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.51 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Widzew Łódź 100% | Cracovia Krakow 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Widzew Łódź vs Cracovia Krakow | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź • Kick-off: Friday 9 Sep 2022, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 34% | Draw 27% | Cracovia Krakow 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Widzew Łódź 1.20 / Cracovia Krakow 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Widzew Łódź attack 0.967 / def 1.273 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.868 / def 0.972 | league avg home 1.281 / away 1.180 • Poisson stance: Cracovia Krakow (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Widzew Łódź xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Cracovia Krakow xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Widzew Łódź vs Cracovia Krakow kick off?
Widzew Łódź vs Cracovia Krakow kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 9 September 2022 at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź.
What was the final score in Widzew Łódź vs Cracovia Krakow?
Widzew Łódź 2 - 0 Cracovia Krakow.
Where is Widzew Łódź vs Cracovia Krakow being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź.
What competition is Widzew Łódź vs Cracovia Krakow part of?
Widzew Łódź vs Cracovia Krakow is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Widzew Łódź vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our statistical model gives Widzew Łódź a 34% chance of winning, Cracovia Krakow a 39% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Cracovia Krakow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Widzew Łódź vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Widzew Łódź and Cracovia Krakow will score (BTTS).
Will Widzew Łódź vs Cracovia Krakow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Widzew Łódź and Cracovia Krakow?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Widzew Łódź and Cracovia Krakow in?
Widzew Łódź (all comps): 3W-1D-4L in 8 | 1.25 PPG | GF 1.12 / GA 1.25 | L5 D-L-W-W-L. Cracovia Krakow (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Widzew Łódź's attack at 0.97x the league average against Cracovia Krakow's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.20 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cracovia Krakow's attack (0.87x) against Widzew Łódź's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
These ratings are built from 8/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.8%), 0-1 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cracovia Krakow Win
34%
2.93
27%
3.72
39%
2.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Widzew Łódź xG
Total xG
2.51
1.30
Cracovia Krakow xG
2.93
34%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
2.57
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
27%
3.68
30%
3.33
Win to Nil
9%
10.79
12%
8.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 10.6 | 6.9 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.8 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.7 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Widzew Łódź vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Widzew Łódź and Cracovia Krakow expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Widzew Łódź and 1.30 for Cracovia Krakow, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Widzew Łódź vs Cracovia Krakow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Widzew Łódź's recent record stands at 3W 1D 4L from 8 games, a 1.25 PPG return, with D-L-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Widzew Łódź is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cracovia Krakow, meanwhile, have gone 4W 1D 3L across 8 games — 1.62 PPG, with L-L-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Cracovia Krakow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.25 PPG for Widzew Łódź against 1.62 for Cracovia Krakow. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Widzew Łódź have managed 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cracovia Krakow's away record stands at 1W 1D 1L across 3 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Widzew Łódź are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Cracovia Krakow are on 1.38 scored and 0.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cracovia Krakow in 12%.
Defensively: Widzew Łódź have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Cracovia Krakow in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Widzew Łódź
Blended
Cracovia Krakow
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Widzew Łódź and Cracovia Krakow in coming into this match?
Widzew Łódź have gone 3W 1D 4L in their last 8 games (1.25 PPG), while Cracovia Krakow have gone 4W 1D 3L in their last 8 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Widzew Łódź at home or Cracovia Krakow away?
Cracovia Krakow's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Widzew Łódź at home: 1.00 PPG; Cracovia Krakow away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Widzew Łódź or Cracovia Krakow been keeping clean sheets recently?
Widzew Łódź have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Cracovia Krakow in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 20 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Widzew Łódź have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Cracovia Krakow — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Widzew Łódź
4
Draws
1
Cracovia Krakow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Widzew Łódź and Cracovia Krakow?
From 8 meetings on record, Widzew Łódź have won 3, Cracovia Krakow have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Widzew Łódź and Cracovia Krakow last play each other?
They last met on 20 February 2026, when Widzew Łódź 0-0 Cracovia Krakow.
Who has won more matches between Widzew Łódź and Cracovia Krakow?
Widzew Łódź have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Widzew Łódź are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Cracovia Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 100% for Widzew Łódź, 33% for Cracovia Krakow — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 100% (Widzew Łódź) and 0% (Cracovia Krakow).
On the defensive side: Cracovia Krakow in 33%; Cracovia Krakow in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Widzew Łódź home games / Cracovia Krakow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Widzew Łódź play Cracovia Krakow?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Widzew Łódź's games and 33% of Cracovia Krakow's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Widzew Łódź vs Cracovia Krakow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 100% of Widzew Łódź's recent games and 0% of Cracovia Krakow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Widzew Łódź and Cracovia Krakow tend to score early?
Widzew Łódź have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Cracovia Krakow in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Widzew Łódź cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Cracovia Krakow.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Widzew Łódź beat Cracovia Krakow 2-0 at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź, Regular Season - 9, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Widzew Łódź 1.20 xG and Cracovia Krakow 1.30 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Cracovia Krakow landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Widzew Łódź attack 0.97 / defence 1.27 against Cracovia Krakow attack 0.87 / defence 0.97, drawn from 8/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Widzew Łódź 34% | Draw 27% | Cracovia Krakow 39%, with Cracovia Krakow to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Widzew Łódź win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Widzew Łódź 50%, Cracovia Krakow 25%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 31%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Widzew Łódź's trading profile (8 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (8 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 12% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Widzew Łódź 1.25 PPG, Cracovia Krakow 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Widzew Łódź win broke the near-deadlock. Widzew Łódź (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Cracovia Krakow (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.