Warta Poznań 0-1 Widzew Łódź – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Widzew Łódź at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Warta Poznań vs Widzew Łódź fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii plays host to Warta Poznań versus Widzew Łódź in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Saturday 20 August 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Warta Poznań (all games): 4W 0D 6L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Warta Poznań have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Warta Poznań have posted 4W 1D 5L at Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Widzew Łódź have collected 0.80 PPG across 5 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 1W 1D 3L. Last five: L W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets in 5 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Widzew Łódź have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Widzew Łódź have posted 1W 1D 1L from 3 away outings — 1.33 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. 2 away clean sheets from 3 games (67%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.33 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Warta Poznań against 0.80 for Widzew Łódź. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading Data
Warta Poznań goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; they fail to score in 40% of games.
Widzew Łódź goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Warta Poznań 40% versus Widzew Łódź 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Warta Poznań 60% | Widzew Łódź 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Warta Poznań 0.98 xG and Widzew Łódź 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Warta Poznań attack 0.863 / defence 1.298 | Widzew Łódź attack 0.821 / defence 0.888. League average goals — home 1.279 / away 1.231. Data: 39 Warta Poznań games / 5 Widzew Łódź games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Warta Poznań 28% | Draw 28% | Widzew Łódź 44%. Fair-value odds: Warta Poznań 3.57 | Draw 3.57 | Widzew Łódź 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Widzew Łódź as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Widzew Łódź if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.29 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Warta Poznań 70% | Widzew Łódź 33%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Warta Poznań vs Widzew Łódź | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Aug 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Warta Poznań 28% | Draw 28% | Widzew Łódź 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Warta Poznań 0.98 / Widzew Łódź 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Warta Poznań attack 0.863 / def 1.298 | Widzew Łódź attack 0.821 / def 0.888 | league avg home 1.279 / away 1.231 • Poisson stance: Widzew Łódź (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Warta Poznań xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Widzew Łódź xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Warta Poznań vs Widzew Łódź kick off?
Warta Poznań vs Widzew Łódź kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 20 August 2022 at Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii.
What was the final score in Warta Poznań vs Widzew Łódź?
Warta Poznań 0 - 1 Widzew Łódź.
Where is Warta Poznań vs Widzew Łódź being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii.
What competition is Warta Poznań vs Widzew Łódź part of?
Warta Poznań vs Widzew Łódź is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Warta Poznań vs Widzew Łódź?
Our statistical model gives Warta Poznań a 28% chance of winning, Widzew Łódź a 44% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Widzew Łódź the favourite.
Will both teams score in Warta Poznań vs Widzew Łódź?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Warta Poznań and Widzew Łódź will score (BTTS).
Will Warta Poznań vs Widzew Łódź have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Warta Poznań and Widzew Łódź?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Warta Poznań and Widzew Łódź in?
Warta Poznań (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-L-W. Widzew Łódź (all comps): 1W-1D-3L in 5 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Warta Poznań's attack at 0.86x the league average against Widzew Łódź's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 0.98 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Widzew Łódź's attack (0.82x) against Warta Poznań's defence (1.30x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from 39/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.8%), 0-1 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Widzew Łódź Win
28%
3.59
28%
3.58
44%
2.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Warta Poznań xG
Total xG
2.29
1.31
Widzew Łódź xG
3.59
28%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
2.26
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
27%
3.71
38%
2.66
Win to Nil
8%
13.33
17%
6.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 13.3 | 8.7 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 13.0 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 6.4 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Warta Poznań vs Widzew Łódź?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Warta Poznań and Widzew Łódź expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Warta Poznań and 1.31 for Widzew Łódź, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Warta Poznań vs Widzew Łódź?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 5 outings, Warta Poznań have picked up 1.20 PPG on a 2W 0D 3L record — L-L-W-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Warta Poznań, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Widzew Łódź's form line: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games, 0.80 PPG, last five L-W-L-D-L. It's still early in the season for Widzew Łódź, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.20 PPG for Warta Poznań against 0.80 for Widzew Łódź. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Warta Poznań are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Widzew Łódź are on 1.20 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Widzew Łódź in 60%.
Defensively: Widzew Łódź in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Warta Poznań
Early Season
Widzew Łódź
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Warta Poznań and Widzew Łódź in coming into this match?
Warta Poznań have gone 2W 0D 3L in their last 5 games (1.20 PPG), while Widzew Łódź have gone 1W 1D 3L in their last 5 (0.80 PPG).
Have Warta Poznań or Widzew Łódź been keeping clean sheets recently?
Warta Poznań have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Widzew Łódź in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Warta Poznań go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Warta Poznań have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Widzew Łódź — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Warta Poznań
0
Draws
1
Widzew Łódź
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Warta Poznań and Widzew Łódź?
From 4 meetings on record, Warta Poznań have won 3, Widzew Łódź have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Warta Poznań and Widzew Łódź last play each other?
They last met on 5 May 2024, when Warta Poznań 2-1 Widzew Łódź.
Who has won more matches between Warta Poznań and Widzew Łódź?
Warta Poznań have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Warta Poznań are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Widzew Łódź are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Warta Poznań 40%, Widzew Łódź 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Warta Poznań and 60% for Widzew Łódź. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Widzew Łódź in 40%; Warta Poznań have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Warta Poznań home games / Widzew Łódź away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Warta Poznań play Widzew Łódź?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Warta Poznań's recent matches and 60% of Widzew Łódź's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Warta Poznań vs Widzew Łódź usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Warta Poznań's matches and 60% of Widzew Łódź's.
Do Warta Poznań and Widzew Łódź tend to score early?
Warta Poznań have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Widzew Łódź in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Widzew Łódź edge out Warta Poznań 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Widzew Łódź beat Warta Poznań 0-1 at Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii, Regular Season - 6, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Warta Poznań 0.98 xG and Widzew Łódź 1.31 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Warta Poznań fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Warta Poznań attack 0.86 / defence 1.30 against Widzew Łódź attack 0.82 / defence 0.89, drawn from 39/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Warta Poznań 28% | Draw 28% | Widzew Łódź 44%, with Widzew Łódź to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Warta Poznań 60%, Widzew Łódź 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Warta Poznań's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Widzew Łódź's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Warta Poznań 1.20 PPG, Widzew Łódź 0.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Widzew Łódź win broke the near-deadlock. Warta Poznań managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward. Widzew Łódź conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.