Warta Poznań 1-2 Radomiak Radom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Warta Poznań at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Warta Poznań vs Radomiak Radom fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii plays host to Warta Poznań versus Radomiak Radom in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off: Monday 15 May 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Warta Poznań (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
In front of their own supporters this season, Warta Poznań have posted 5W 5D 0L at Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Warta Poznań are significantly better at Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii than their overall form suggests.
Radomiak Radom's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D L D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Radomiak Radom away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 0.90 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Warta Poznań, 0.90 for Radomiak Radom — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Warta Poznań, 1 for Radomiak Radom and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.3 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 31 Oct 2022, ended 3–2 with Warta Poznań winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Warta Poznań half-time and goal-timing data (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Radomiak Radom half-time and goal-timing data (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Warta Poznań 37% versus Radomiak Radom 48%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Warta Poznań 31% | Radomiak Radom 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Warta Poznań 1.39 xG and Radomiak Radom 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Warta Poznań attack 1.110 / defence 0.831 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.935 / defence 0.950. League average goals — home 1.313 / away 1.033. Data: 65 Warta Poznań games / 65 Radomiak Radom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Warta Poznań 50% | Draw 29% | Radomiak Radom 21%. Fair-value odds: Warta Poznań 2.00 | Draw 3.45 | Radomiak Radom 4.76. Warta Poznań hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Warta Poznań at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Warta Poznań if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.19 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates are neutral: Warta Poznań 50% | Radomiak Radom 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Warta Poznań vs Radomiak Radom | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii • Kick-off: Monday 15 May 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Warta Poznań 50% | Draw 29% | Radomiak Radom 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 42% | xG Warta Poznań 1.39 / Radomiak Radom 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Warta Poznań attack 1.110 / def 0.831 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.935 / def 0.950 | league avg home 1.313 / away 1.033 • Poisson stance: Warta Poznań (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Warta Poznań xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Radomiak Radom xG
42%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Warta Poznań vs Radomiak Radom kick off?
Warta Poznań vs Radomiak Radom kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 15 May 2023 at Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii.
What was the final score in Warta Poznań vs Radomiak Radom?
Warta Poznań 1 - 2 Radomiak Radom.
Where is Warta Poznań vs Radomiak Radom being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii.
What competition is Warta Poznań vs Radomiak Radom part of?
Warta Poznań vs Radomiak Radom is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Warta Poznań vs Radomiak Radom?
Our statistical model gives Warta Poznań a 50% chance of winning, Radomiak Radom a 21% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Warta Poznań the favourite.
Will both teams score in Warta Poznań vs Radomiak Radom?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Warta Poznań and Radomiak Radom will score (BTTS).
Will Warta Poznań vs Radomiak Radom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Warta Poznań and Radomiak Radom?
Record (3 meetings): Warta Poznań 2W | Draws 0 | Radomiak Radom 1W.
What form are Warta Poznań and Radomiak Radom in?
Warta Poznań (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. Radomiak Radom (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Warta Poznań's attack at 1.11x the league average against Radomiak Radom's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.39 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Radomiak Radom's attack (0.94x) against Warta Poznań's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 0.80.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.9%), 0-0 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Warta Poznań Win
50%
2.01
29%
3.41
21%
4.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 0
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Warta Poznań xG
Total xG
2.19
0.80
Radomiak Radom xG
2.01
50%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
4.80
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
45%
2.23
25%
4.00
Win to Nil
22%
4.48
5%
19.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 9.0 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.5 | 12.5 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.8 | 8.6 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Warta Poznań vs Radomiak Radom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Warta Poznań and Radomiak Radom expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Warta Poznań and 0.80 for Radomiak Radom, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Warta Poznań vs Radomiak Radom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Warta Poznań's recent record stands at 23W 17D 25L from 65 games, a 1.32 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-L in the last five.
Radomiak Radom, meanwhile, have gone 21W 23D 21L across 65 games — 1.32 PPG, with D-L-D-W-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.32 PPG for Warta Poznań against 1.32 for Radomiak Radom. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Warta Poznań have managed 9W 12D 11L from 32 games — 1.22 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Radomiak Radom's away record stands at 10W 12D 10L across 32 trips, a 1.31 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Warta Poznań are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Radomiak Radom are on 1.09 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Last 65 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Warta Poznań
Current Season
Radomiak Radom
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Warta Poznań and Radomiak Radom in coming into this match?
Warta Poznań have gone 23W 17D 25L in their last 65 games (1.32 PPG), while Radomiak Radom have gone 21W 23D 21L in their last 65 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Warta Poznań at home or Radomiak Radom away?
Radomiak Radom's away record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Warta Poznań at home: 1.22 PPG; Radomiak Radom away: 1.31 PPG.
Have Warta Poznań or Radomiak Radom been keeping clean sheets recently?
Warta Poznań have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Radomiak Radom in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Warta Poznań have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Radomiak Radom — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Warta Poznań
1
Draws
3
Radomiak Radom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Warta Poznań and Radomiak Radom?
From 6 meetings on record, Warta Poznań have won 2, Radomiak Radom have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Warta Poznań and Radomiak Radom last play each other?
They last met on 26 February 2024, when Warta Poznań 0-0 Radomiak Radom.
Who has won more matches between Warta Poznań and Radomiak Radom?
Radomiak Radom have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Warta Poznań see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Warta Poznań 53%, Radomiak Radom 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 34% (Warta Poznań) and 41% (Radomiak Radom).
On the defensive side: Radomiak Radom in 31%; Warta Poznań have failed to score in 34% of games; Radomiak Radom in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Warta Poznań home games / Radomiak Radom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Warta Poznań play Radomiak Radom?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Warta Poznań's recent matches and 44% of Radomiak Radom's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Warta Poznań vs Radomiak Radom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 34% of Warta Poznań's recent games and 41% of Radomiak Radom's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Warta Poznań and Radomiak Radom tend to score early?
Warta Poznań have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Radomiak Radom in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Radomiak Radom defy the odds to beat Warta Poznań 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Radomiak Radom beat Warta Poznań 1-2 at Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii, Regular Season - 32, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Warta Poznań 1.39 xG and Radomiak Radom 0.80 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Radomiak Radom outscored their 0.80 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Warta Poznań attack 1.11 / defence 0.83 against Radomiak Radom attack 0.94 / defence 0.95, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Warta Poznań 50% | Draw 29% | Radomiak Radom 21%, with Warta Poznań to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Radomiak Radom win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Warta Poznań 31%, Radomiak Radom 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Warta Poznań's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Warta Poznań 1.32 PPG, Radomiak Radom 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Radomiak Radom win broke the near-deadlock. Warta Poznań (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.97 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.