Stal Mielec 0-3 Widzew Łódź – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stal Mielec at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stal Mielec vs Widzew Łódź fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Stal Mielec host Widzew Łódź at Stadion Miejski w Mielcu in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 17 September 2022 at 11:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Stal Mielec have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Stal Mielec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Stal Mielec have posted 3W 3D 4L at Stadion Miejski w Mielcu — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Widzew Łódź stand at 4W 1D 4L from 9 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.44 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.22 per game is modest, conceding 1.11 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 9 outings (44%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Widzew Łódź, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Widzew Łódź's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 2L across 5 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 3 away clean sheets from 5 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Stal Mielec) versus 1.44 (Widzew Łódź). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Profile
Stal Mielec in-play tendencies (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Widzew Łódź in-play tendencies (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 0% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stal Mielec 33% versus Widzew Łódź 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stal Mielec 44% | Widzew Łódź 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stal Mielec 1.17 xG and Widzew Łódź 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stal Mielec attack 0.948 / defence 0.845 | Widzew Łódź attack 0.714 / defence 0.886. League average goals — home 1.388 / away 1.170. Data: 43 Stal Mielec games / 9 Widzew Łódź games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stal Mielec 47% | Draw 31% | Widzew Łódź 22%. Fair-value odds: Stal Mielec 2.13 | Draw 3.23 | Widzew Łódź 4.55. Stal Mielec hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.87. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.87 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Widzew Łódź's lower xG of 0.71 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Stal Mielec are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stal Mielec offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.87 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 29% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 35%. Form rates corroborate: Stal Mielec 50% | Widzew Łódź 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stal Mielec vs Widzew Łódź | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stadion Miejski w Mielcu • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Sep 2022, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stal Mielec 47% | Draw 31% | Widzew Łódź 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 35% | xG Stal Mielec 1.17 / Widzew Łódź 0.71 • Poisson strength factors: Stal Mielec attack 0.948 / def 0.845 | Widzew Łódź attack 0.714 / def 0.886 | league avg home 1.388 / away 1.170 • Poisson stance: Stal Mielec (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Stal Mielec xG
Expected Goals
0.71
Widzew Łódź xG
35%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stal Mielec vs Widzew Łódź kick off?
Stal Mielec vs Widzew Łódź kicked off at 11:30 on Saturday 17 September 2022 at Stadion Miejski w Mielcu.
What was the final score in Stal Mielec vs Widzew Łódź?
Stal Mielec 0 - 3 Widzew Łódź.
Where is Stal Mielec vs Widzew Łódź being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski w Mielcu.
What competition is Stal Mielec vs Widzew Łódź part of?
Stal Mielec vs Widzew Łódź is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Stal Mielec vs Widzew Łódź?
Our statistical model gives Stal Mielec a 47% chance of winning, Widzew Łódź a 22% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Stal Mielec the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stal Mielec vs Widzew Łódź?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Stal Mielec and Widzew Łódź will score (BTTS).
Will Stal Mielec vs Widzew Łódź have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stal Mielec and Widzew Łódź?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Stal Mielec and Widzew Łódź in?
Stal Mielec (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Widzew Łódź (all comps): 4W-1D-4L in 9 | 1.44 PPG | GF 1.22 / GA 1.11 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Stal Mielec's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Widzew Łódź's defensive record (0.89x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.17. The same calculation in reverse, Widzew Łódź's attack versus Stal Mielec's defence, projects 0.71 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (16.3%), 1-1 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stal Mielec Win
47%
2.14
31%
3.24
22%
4.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.4%
Draw
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Stal Mielec xG
Total xG
1.87
0.71
Widzew Łódź xG
2.14
47%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
4.48
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.87
65%
BTTS No
1.54
Clean Sheet
49%
2.03
31%
3.21
Win to Nil
23%
4.33
7%
14.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.4 | 10.9 | 3.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.9 | 12.7 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.5 | 7.4 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.1 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stal Mielec vs Widzew Łódź?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.0%.
How many goals are Stal Mielec and Widzew Łódź expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Stal Mielec and 0.71 for Widzew Łódź, a combined total of 1.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Stal Mielec vs Widzew Łódź?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Stal Mielec come into this having played 9 games, going 4W 1D 4L for 1.44 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-L. The sample for Stal Mielec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Widzew Łódź sit at 1.44 PPG from 9 outings (4W 1D 4L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Widzew Łódź is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Stal Mielec on 1.44 PPG, Widzew Łódź on 1.44. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Stal Mielec's home form reads 2W 1D 1L across 4 games on their own ground, a 1.75 PPG return.
Away from home, Widzew Łódź have taken 1.75 points per game from 4 outings (2W 1D 1L).
The Goals Picture
Stal Mielec are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Widzew Łódź are on 1.22 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Defensively: Widzew Łódź in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 9 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stal Mielec
Blended
Widzew Łódź
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stal Mielec and Widzew Łódź in coming into this match?
Stal Mielec have gone 4W 1D 4L in their last 9 games (1.44 PPG), while Widzew Łódź have gone 4W 1D 4L in their last 9 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stal Mielec at home or Widzew Łódź away?
Stal Mielec's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stal Mielec at home: 1.75 PPG; Widzew Łódź away: 1.75 PPG.
Have Stal Mielec or Widzew Łódź been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stal Mielec have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Widzew Łódź in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Stal Mielec and Widzew Łódź runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 December 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Sep 2022, when Widzew Łódź won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Stal Mielec's record when hosting Widzew Łódź specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Stal Mielec
2
Draws
3
Widzew Łódź
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stal Mielec and Widzew Łódź?
From 6 meetings on record, Stal Mielec have won 1, Widzew Łódź have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Stal Mielec and Widzew Łódź last play each other?
They last met on 7 December 2024, when Widzew Łódź 2-1 Stal Mielec.
Who has won more matches between Stal Mielec and Widzew Łódź?
Widzew Łódź have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Stal Mielec see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Widzew Łódź tend to start slowly — only 0% of their games have a goal by half-time.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Stal Mielec 25% BTTS, Widzew Łódź 0%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Stal Mielec and 0% for Widzew Łódź.
On the defensive side: Stal Mielec keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Widzew Łódź in 75%; Widzew Łódź in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stal Mielec home games / Widzew Łódź away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stal Mielec play Widzew Łódź?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Stal Mielec's recent matches and 0% of Widzew Łódź's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stal Mielec vs Widzew Łódź usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Stal Mielec's recent games and 0% of Widzew Łódź's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stal Mielec and Widzew Łódź tend to score early?
Stal Mielec have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Widzew Łódź in 0% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Widzew Łódź run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Stal Mielec.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Widzew Łódź beat Stal Mielec 0-3 at Stadion Miejski w Mielcu, Regular Season - 10, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stal Mielec 1.17 xG and Widzew Łódź 0.71 xG, a combined 1.87. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Stal Mielec fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Widzew Łódź outscored their 0.71 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stal Mielec attack 0.95 / defence 0.84 against Widzew Łódź attack 0.71 / defence 0.89, drawn from 43/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stal Mielec 47% | Draw 31% | Widzew Łódź 22%, with Stal Mielec to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Widzew Łódź win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stal Mielec 44%, Widzew Łódź 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stal Mielec's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Widzew Łódź's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stal Mielec 1.44 PPG, Widzew Łódź 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Widzew Łódź win broke the near-deadlock. Stal Mielec (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Widzew Łódź (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.