Stal Mielec 0-2 Piast Gliwice – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Piast Gliwice at 34% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stal Mielec vs Piast Gliwice encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Miejski w Mielcu plays host to Stal Mielec versus Piast Gliwice in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off: Friday 3 March 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Stal Mielec have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Stal Mielec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stal Mielec's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Stadion Miejski w Mielcu this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Miejski w Mielcu. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Stal Mielec are significantly better at Stadion Miejski w Mielcu than their overall form suggests.
Piast Gliwice's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Piast Gliwice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Piast Gliwice have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Stal Mielec, 1.20 for Piast Gliwice — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Stal Mielec 0W, Piast Gliwice 2W, 1D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Aug 2022, ended 0–4 with Piast Gliwice winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Stal Mielec goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Piast Gliwice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stal Mielec 50% versus Piast Gliwice 46%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Stal Mielec 45% | Piast Gliwice 34%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stal Mielec 0.85 xG and Piast Gliwice 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stal Mielec attack 0.803 / defence 0.788 | Piast Gliwice attack 1.010 / defence 0.856. League average goals — home 1.232 / away 1.125. Stal Mielec's defence rating of 0.788 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 56 Stal Mielec games / 56 Piast Gliwice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stal Mielec 32% | Draw 34% | Piast Gliwice 34%. Fair-value odds: Stal Mielec 3.12 | Draw 2.94 | Piast Gliwice 2.94. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.74. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.74 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Stal Mielec's lower xG of 0.85 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.74 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 25% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 34% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Stal Mielec 20% | Piast Gliwice 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stal Mielec vs Piast Gliwice | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stadion Miejski w Mielcu • Kick-off: Friday 3 Mar 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stal Mielec 32% | Draw 34% | Piast Gliwice 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 25% | BTTS 34% | xG Stal Mielec 0.85 / Piast Gliwice 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Stal Mielec attack 0.803 / def 0.788 | Piast Gliwice attack 1.010 / def 0.856 | league avg home 1.232 / away 1.125 • Poisson stance: Draw (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
Stal Mielec xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Piast Gliwice xG
34%
BTTS
52%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stal Mielec vs Piast Gliwice kick off?
Stal Mielec vs Piast Gliwice kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 3 March 2023 at Stadion Miejski w Mielcu.
What was the final score in Stal Mielec vs Piast Gliwice?
Stal Mielec 0 - 2 Piast Gliwice.
Where is Stal Mielec vs Piast Gliwice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski w Mielcu.
What competition is Stal Mielec vs Piast Gliwice part of?
Stal Mielec vs Piast Gliwice is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Stal Mielec vs Piast Gliwice?
Our statistical model gives Stal Mielec a 32% chance of winning, Piast Gliwice a 34% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Stal Mielec vs Piast Gliwice?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Stal Mielec and Piast Gliwice will score (BTTS).
Will Stal Mielec vs Piast Gliwice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 25%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stal Mielec and Piast Gliwice?
Record (3 meetings): Stal Mielec 0W | Draws 1 | Piast Gliwice 2W.
What form are Stal Mielec and Piast Gliwice in?
Stal Mielec (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-L-D-L-L. Piast Gliwice (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Stal Mielec's attack at 0.80x the league average against Piast Gliwice's defence at 0.86x — combine the two and it projects 0.85 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Piast Gliwice's attack (1.01x) against Stal Mielec's defence (0.79x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 19.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 0-1 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Piast Gliwice Win
32%
3.16
34%
2.94
34%
2.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
17.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.7%
Away win
1 – 0
14.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
Stal Mielec xG
Total xG
1.74
0.90
Piast Gliwice xG
3.16
32%
Home win
2.94
34%
Draw
2.92
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
25%
Over 2.5
4.00
75%
Under 2.5
1.33
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.94
66%
BTTS No
1.52
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
43%
2.33
Win to Nil
13%
7.73
15%
6.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.5 | 15.7 | 7.0 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.8 | 13.3 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stal Mielec vs Piast Gliwice?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.2%.
How many goals are Stal Mielec and Piast Gliwice expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Stal Mielec and 0.90 for Piast Gliwice, a combined total of 1.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Stal Mielec vs Piast Gliwice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Stal Mielec's recent record stands at 17W 15D 24L from 56 games, a 1.18 PPG return, with D-L-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Stal Mielec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Piast Gliwice, meanwhile, have gone 21W 14D 21L across 56 games — 1.38 PPG, with D-L-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Piast Gliwice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.18 PPG for Stal Mielec against 1.38 for Piast Gliwice. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Stal Mielec have managed 11W 8D 9L from 28 games — 1.46 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Piast Gliwice's away record stands at 11W 8D 9L across 28 trips, a 1.46 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Stal Mielec are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Piast Gliwice are on 1.21 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stal Mielec
Blended
Piast Gliwice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stal Mielec and Piast Gliwice in coming into this match?
Stal Mielec have gone 17W 15D 24L in their last 56 games (1.18 PPG), while Piast Gliwice have gone 21W 14D 21L in their last 56 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stal Mielec at home or Piast Gliwice away?
Stal Mielec's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stal Mielec at home: 1.46 PPG; Piast Gliwice away: 1.46 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Piast Gliwice won 4-0 on 21 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stal Mielec have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Piast Gliwice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Stal Mielec
3
Draws
4
Piast Gliwice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stal Mielec and Piast Gliwice?
From 8 meetings on record, Stal Mielec have won 1, Piast Gliwice have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Stal Mielec and Piast Gliwice last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2025, when Piast Gliwice 2-2 Stal Mielec.
Who has won more matches between Stal Mielec and Piast Gliwice?
Piast Gliwice have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Stal Mielec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Piast Gliwice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stal Mielec 43%, Piast Gliwice 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 39% for Stal Mielec and 25% for Piast Gliwice.
On the defensive side: Stal Mielec keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Piast Gliwice in 32%; Stal Mielec have failed to score in 36% of games; Piast Gliwice in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stal Mielec home games / Piast Gliwice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stal Mielec play Piast Gliwice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Stal Mielec's recent matches and 36% of Piast Gliwice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stal Mielec vs Piast Gliwice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Stal Mielec's recent games and 25% of Piast Gliwice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stal Mielec and Piast Gliwice tend to score early?
Stal Mielec have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Piast Gliwice in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Piast Gliwice cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Stal Mielec.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Piast Gliwice beat Stal Mielec 0-2 at Stadion Miejski w Mielcu, Regular Season - 23, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stal Mielec 0.85 xG and Piast Gliwice 0.90 xG, a combined 1.74. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Stal Mielec fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Piast Gliwice outscored their 0.90 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stal Mielec attack 0.80 / defence 0.79 against Piast Gliwice attack 1.01 / defence 0.86, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stal Mielec 32% | Draw 34% | Piast Gliwice 34%, with Piast Gliwice to win its most likely call at 34%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 52% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stal Mielec 45%, Piast Gliwice 34%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stal Mielec's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Piast Gliwice's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stal Mielec 1.18 PPG, Piast Gliwice 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Piast Gliwice win broke the near-deadlock. Stal Mielec (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Piast Gliwice (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.