Slask Wroclaw 0-1 Stal Mielec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Slask Wroclaw at 50% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Slask Wroclaw vs Stal Mielec encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Slask Wroclaw and Stal Mielec meet at Tarczyński Arena in Ekstraklasa (matchday 21). This fixture gets under way on Friday 16 February 2024 at 19:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Slask Wroclaw have collected 1.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: W D D W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home, Slask Wroclaw have gone 5W 3D 2L in their last 10 home games (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Stal Mielec's record over their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). Last five: W W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Stal Mielec have gone 2W 2D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Slask Wroclaw's favour (1.90 vs 1.30) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Stal Mielec edge it 2 wins to 1, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 12 Aug 2023, ended Slask Wroclaw 1–3 Stal Mielec — a Stal Mielec win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Slask Wroclaw half-time and goal-timing data (last 53 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Stal Mielec half-time and goal-timing data (last 53 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slask Wroclaw 57% versus Stal Mielec 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slask Wroclaw 43% | Stal Mielec 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slask Wroclaw 1.54 xG and Stal Mielec 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slask Wroclaw attack 0.924 / defence 0.805 | Stal Mielec attack 0.950 / defence 1.141. League average goals — home 1.465 / away 1.247. Data: built from Slask Wroclaw's last 54 games and Stal Mielec's last 53.
Result probabilities: Slask Wroclaw 50% | Draw 27% | Stal Mielec 23%. Fair-value odds: Slask Wroclaw 1.99 | Draw 3.70 | Stal Mielec 4.42. Slask Wroclaw hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Slask Wroclaw at 50% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Slask Wroclaw if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.50 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 54% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Slask Wroclaw 60% (last 10 home games) | Stal Mielec 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slask Wroclaw vs Stal Mielec | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 21 | Venue: Tarczyński Arena • Kick-off: Friday 16 February 2024 at 19:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slask Wroclaw 50% | Draw 27% | Stal Mielec 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Slask Wroclaw 1.54 / Stal Mielec 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Slask Wroclaw attack 0.924 / def 0.805 | Stal Mielec attack 0.950 / def 1.141 | league avg home 1.465 / away 1.247 • Poisson stance: Slask Wroclaw (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Slask Wroclaw xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Stal Mielec xG
49%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Slask Wroclaw vs Stal Mielec FAQs
What time does Slask Wroclaw vs Stal Mielec kick off?
Slask Wroclaw vs Stal Mielec kicked off at 19:30 UK time on Friday 16 February 2024 at Tarczyński Arena.
What was the final score in Slask Wroclaw vs Stal Mielec?
Slask Wroclaw 0 - 1 Stal Mielec.
Where is Slask Wroclaw vs Stal Mielec being played?
The match is being played at Tarczyński Arena.
What competition is Slask Wroclaw vs Stal Mielec part of?
Slask Wroclaw vs Stal Mielec is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 21) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Slask Wroclaw vs Stal Mielec?
Our statistical model gives Slask Wroclaw a 50% chance of winning, Stal Mielec a 23% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Slask Wroclaw the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slask Wroclaw vs Stal Mielec?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Slask Wroclaw and Stal Mielec will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Slask Wroclaw vs Stal Mielec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Slask Wroclaw's attack rating (0.92) and Stal Mielec's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 1.54 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Stal Mielec's attack (0.95x) against Slask Wroclaw's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from Slask Wroclaw's last 54 games and Stal Mielec's last 53 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 2-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slask Wroclaw Win
50%
1.99
27%
3.70
23%
4.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Slask Wroclaw xG
Total xG
2.50
0.95
Stal Mielec xG
1.99
50%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
4.42
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
39%
2.60
21%
4.68
Win to Nil
19%
5.16
5%
20.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 7.8 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 12.1 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.4 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Slask Wroclaw vs Stal Mielec Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Slask Wroclaw vs Stal Mielec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Slask Wroclaw and Stal Mielec expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Slask Wroclaw and 0.95 for Stal Mielec, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Slask Wroclaw vs Stal Mielec?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Slask Wroclaw's recent record stands at 21W 15D 17L from 53 games, a 1.47 PPG return, with W-D-D-W-L in the last five.
Stal Mielec, meanwhile, have gone 18W 14D 21L across 53 games — 1.28 PPG, with W-W-D-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.47 PPG for Slask Wroclaw against 1.28 for Stal Mielec. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Slask Wroclaw have managed 11W 9D 7L from their last 27 home games — 1.56 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Stal Mielec's away record stands at 7W 5D 15L across their last 27 away games, a 0.96 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slask Wroclaw come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Slask Wroclaw are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Stal Mielec are on 1.19 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 53 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slask Wroclaw
Blended
Stal Mielec
Blended
Slask Wroclaw (Home) vs Stal Mielec (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Slask Wroclaw
Blended
Stal Mielec
Blended
❓ Slask Wroclaw vs Stal Mielec Form FAQs
What form are Slask Wroclaw and Stal Mielec in coming into this match?
Slask Wroclaw have gone 21W 15D 17L in their last 53 games (1.47 PPG), while Stal Mielec have gone 18W 14D 21L in their last 53 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slask Wroclaw at home or Stal Mielec away?
Slask Wroclaw's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slask Wroclaw at home: 1.56 PPG; Stal Mielec away: 0.96 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 8 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to November 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent in our data was on 15 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Slask Wroclaw have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Slask Wroclaw won Stal Mielec 1-4 Slask Wroclaw on 15 Mar 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Slask Wroclaw have gone 2W 1D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Stal Mielec — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Slask Wroclaw
2
Draws
3
Stal Mielec
Recent Meetings
❓ Slask Wroclaw vs Stal Mielec H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Slask Wroclaw and Stal Mielec?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Slask Wroclaw have won 3, Stal Mielec have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Slask Wroclaw and Stal Mielec last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 March 2025: Stal Mielec 1-4 Slask Wroclaw.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Slask Wroclaw are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Stal Mielec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slask Wroclaw 63%, Stal Mielec 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Slask Wroclaw) and 44% (Stal Mielec).
On the defensive side: Slask Wroclaw have failed to score in 30% of games; Stal Mielec in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slask Wroclaw home games / Stal Mielec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Slask Wroclaw vs Stal Mielec Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Slask Wroclaw and Stal Mielec matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 63% of Slask Wroclaw's recent matches and 41% of Stal Mielec's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Slask Wroclaw and Stal Mielec matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Slask Wroclaw's recent games and 44% of Stal Mielec's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Slask Wroclaw and Stal Mielec matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Slask Wroclaw's recent matches and 70% of Stal Mielec's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Stal Mielec defy the odds to beat Slask Wroclaw 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stal Mielec beat Slask Wroclaw 0-1 at Tarczyński Arena, Regular Season - 21, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slask Wroclaw 1.54 xG and Stal Mielec 0.95 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Slask Wroclaw fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slask Wroclaw attack 0.92 / defence 0.81 against Stal Mielec attack 0.95 / defence 1.14, drawn from 54/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slask Wroclaw 50% | Draw 27% | Stal Mielec 23%, with Slask Wroclaw to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Stal Mielec win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slask Wroclaw 43%, Stal Mielec 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slask Wroclaw's trading profile (53 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Stal Mielec's trading profile (53 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Slask Wroclaw 1.47 PPG, Stal Mielec 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stal Mielec win broke the near-deadlock. Slask Wroclaw (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward. Stal Mielec (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.