Slask Wroclaw 0-1 Puszcza Niepołomice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Slask Wroclaw at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Slask Wroclaw vs Puszcza Niepołomice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Puszcza Niepołomice travel to Tarczyński Arena to take on Slask Wroclaw. The game is scheduled for Saturday 30 November 2024, 13:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Slask Wroclaw stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: W D L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Slask Wroclaw, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Slask Wroclaw at Tarczyński Arena this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Slask Wroclaw are significantly better at Tarczyński Arena than their overall form suggests.
Puszcza Niepołomice — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Puszcza Niepołomice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Puszcza Niepołomice's form when playing away from home: 0W 3D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Slask Wroclaw at 0.60 PPG versus Puszcza Niepołomice's 0.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Slask Wroclaw, 0 for Puszcza Niepołomice and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Mar 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Slask Wroclaw trading profile (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Puszcza Niepołomice trading profile (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slask Wroclaw 53% versus Puszcza Niepołomice 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slask Wroclaw 47% | Puszcza Niepołomice 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slask Wroclaw 1.30 xG and Puszcza Niepołomice 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slask Wroclaw attack 0.859 / defence 0.999 | Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.622 / defence 1.036. League average goals — home 1.467 / away 1.203. Data: 49 Slask Wroclaw games / 50 Puszcza Niepołomice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slask Wroclaw 50% | Draw 29% | Puszcza Niepołomice 21%. Fair-value odds: Slask Wroclaw 2.00 | Draw 3.45 | Puszcza Niepołomice 4.76. Slask Wroclaw hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Slask Wroclaw at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Slask Wroclaw offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.05 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 38% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Slask Wroclaw 60% | Puszcza Niepołomice 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slask Wroclaw vs Puszcza Niepołomice | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Tarczyński Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Nov 2024, 13:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slask Wroclaw 50% | Draw 29% | Puszcza Niepołomice 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 38% | xG Slask Wroclaw 1.30 / Puszcza Niepołomice 0.75 • Poisson strength factors: Slask Wroclaw attack 0.859 / def 0.999 | Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.622 / def 1.036 | league avg home 1.467 / away 1.203 • Poisson stance: Slask Wroclaw (50%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Slask Wroclaw xG
Expected Goals
0.75
Puszcza Niepołomice xG
38%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slask Wroclaw vs Puszcza Niepołomice kick off?
Slask Wroclaw vs Puszcza Niepołomice kicked off at 13:45 on Saturday 30 November 2024 at Tarczyński Arena.
What was the final score in Slask Wroclaw vs Puszcza Niepołomice?
Slask Wroclaw 0 - 1 Puszcza Niepołomice.
Where is Slask Wroclaw vs Puszcza Niepołomice being played?
The match is being played at Tarczyński Arena.
What competition is Slask Wroclaw vs Puszcza Niepołomice part of?
Slask Wroclaw vs Puszcza Niepołomice is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Slask Wroclaw vs Puszcza Niepołomice?
Our statistical model gives Slask Wroclaw a 50% chance of winning, Puszcza Niepołomice a 21% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Slask Wroclaw the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slask Wroclaw vs Puszcza Niepołomice?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Slask Wroclaw and Puszcza Niepołomice will score (BTTS).
Will Slask Wroclaw vs Puszcza Niepołomice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slask Wroclaw and Puszcza Niepołomice?
Record (2 meetings): Slask Wroclaw 1W | Draws 1 | Puszcza Niepołomice 0W.
What form are Slask Wroclaw and Puszcza Niepołomice in?
Slask Wroclaw (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-D-L-L-D. Puszcza Niepołomice (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
What do the betting odds say about Slask Wroclaw vs Puszcza Niepołomice?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Slask Wroclaw's attack at 0.86x the league average against Puszcza Niepołomice's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.30 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Puszcza Niepołomice's attack versus Slask Wroclaw's defence, projects 0.75 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.5%), 1-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slask Wroclaw Win
50%
2.01
29%
3.47
21%
4.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.8%
Draw
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Slask Wroclaw xG
Total xG
2.05
0.75
Puszcza Niepołomice xG
2.01
50%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
4.68
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.61
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
47%
2.11
27%
3.69
Win to Nil
24%
4.23
6%
17.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.8 | 9.6 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.8 | 12.5 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.9 | 8.2 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.8 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slask Wroclaw vs Puszcza Niepołomice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Slask Wroclaw and Puszcza Niepołomice expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Slask Wroclaw and 0.75 for Puszcza Niepołomice, a combined total of 2.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Slask Wroclaw vs Puszcza Niepołomice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Slask Wroclaw come into this having played 49 games, going 19W 16D 14L for 1.49 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-D. The sample for Slask Wroclaw is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Puszcza Niepołomice sit at 1.10 PPG from 49 outings (12W 18D 19L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Puszcza Niepołomice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Slask Wroclaw on 1.49 PPG, Puszcza Niepołomice on 1.10. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Slask Wroclaw's home form reads 10W 8D 6L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.58 PPG return.
Away from home, Puszcza Niepołomice have taken 0.54 points per game from 24 outings (2W 7D 15L). That's a step down from their 1.10 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Puszcza Niepołomice's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slask Wroclaw come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Slask Wroclaw are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Puszcza Niepołomice are on 1.06 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slask Wroclaw
Blended
Puszcza Niepołomice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slask Wroclaw and Puszcza Niepołomice in coming into this match?
Slask Wroclaw have gone 19W 16D 14L in their last 49 games (1.49 PPG), while Puszcza Niepołomice have gone 12W 18D 19L in their last 49 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slask Wroclaw at home or Puszcza Niepołomice away?
Slask Wroclaw's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slask Wroclaw at home: 1.58 PPG; Puszcza Niepołomice away: 0.54 PPG.
Have Slask Wroclaw or Puszcza Niepołomice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Slask Wroclaw have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Puszcza Niepołomice in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Slask Wroclaw and Puszcza Niepołomice runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Slask Wroclaw's record when hosting Puszcza Niepołomice specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Slask Wroclaw
2
Draws
1
Puszcza Niepołomice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slask Wroclaw and Puszcza Niepołomice?
From 4 meetings on record, Slask Wroclaw have won 1, Puszcza Niepołomice have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Slask Wroclaw and Puszcza Niepołomice last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2025, when Puszcza Niepołomice 1-1 Slask Wroclaw.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Slask Wroclaw are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Puszcza Niepołomice see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slask Wroclaw 58%, Puszcza Niepołomice 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Slask Wroclaw) and 25% (Puszcza Niepołomice).
On the defensive side: Puszcza Niepołomice in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slask Wroclaw home games / Puszcza Niepołomice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slask Wroclaw play Puszcza Niepołomice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Slask Wroclaw's recent matches and 42% of Puszcza Niepołomice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Slask Wroclaw vs Puszcza Niepołomice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Slask Wroclaw's recent games and 25% of Puszcza Niepołomice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Slask Wroclaw and Puszcza Niepołomice tend to score early?
Slask Wroclaw have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Puszcza Niepołomice in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Puszcza Niepołomice defy the odds to beat Slask Wroclaw 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Puszcza Niepołomice beat Slask Wroclaw 0-1 at Tarczyński Arena, Regular Season - 17, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slask Wroclaw 1.30 xG and Puszcza Niepołomice 0.75 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Slask Wroclaw fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slask Wroclaw attack 0.86 / defence 1.00 against Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.62 / defence 1.04, drawn from 49/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slask Wroclaw 50% | Draw 29% | Puszcza Niepołomice 21%, with Slask Wroclaw to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Puszcza Niepołomice win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slask Wroclaw 47%, Puszcza Niepołomice 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slask Wroclaw's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Puszcza Niepołomice's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Slask Wroclaw 1.49 PPG, Puszcza Niepołomice 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Puszcza Niepołomice win broke the near-deadlock. Slask Wroclaw (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward. Puszcza Niepołomice (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.58 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.